There Might Not Be A Recession After All…
Inflation, war, and an inverting yield curve. Despite all these factors, there exists an optimistic silver lining that may be quite likely.
Background
To understand the scenario, it is important to first understand what our economic picture looks like as of late Q1 2022.
First, it is imperative to start by looking at the inflation picture. As of March 2022, year-over-year inflation stands at 7.9%[1]. While this is high, it is important to note that in the decade following the 2008 financial crisis, inflation remained at unprecedented lows; ranging from 0% to 1.42%. Not only that, but this high inflation is not unprecedented, 1974 and 1980 both had periods of inflation nearly double what is seen in the US now.
Next, we must look at a few economic indicators: Consumer Sentiment, the Yield Curve, and the Phillips Curve. Before diving in, you should know that economic indicators are various gauges that are used to measure the state of the economy and to forecast coming changes, positive or negative.
Consumer Sentiment: This is a survey of American consumers that measures how optimistic they are about…
