Generational Change and the Crisis Around Us

If you’re a generational theory skeptic, explain 2016 to me.

From Arthur Schlesinger’s Cycles of History to William Strauss and Neil Howe’s The Fourth Turning, there are many books written about the power of generational cycles. These authors, among others, discern patterns in the mood, temperament, and challenges of certain generations and have made archetypes out of those eras and age groups.

Schlesinger and Strauss/Howe write for different times, and different purposes, but both works share an intuition: there are patterns to our national life that can be discovered and predicted by looking at generational markers. Strauss and Howe identify four major cycles in their work:

High (latest: 1940s-1960s) — High growth, stability, community cohesion
Awakening (latest: mid-1960s-early 1980s) — Focus on personal autonomy, downplay of institutions.
Unraveling (latest: 1980s-2008) — Institutions are weak, individualism is strong
Crisis (latest: 2008-??) — New “founding moments” as civic life is “torn down and built back up.” This is our current period and one of low social order.

They also identify four generation archetypes: Hero, Artist, Prophet, and Nomad. You can read more by clicking the link.

Strauss and Howe believe we’re in the midst of a Crisis, that will lead to a new High period ushered in by the Millennial heirs to the “hero generation” that was the GI/Greatest Generation. I subscribe to this theory, at least in part. You just need to look around you and you will realize that 2016 is the definition of a crisis: ISIS, mass shootings, racial division not seen in generations, Europe on the verge of collapse due to Brexit, and, unbelievably, Donald Trump as a major party nominee for President. ‘Nuff said.

What’s this ‘Millennial’ stuff actually about?

I identify as a Millennial as described by Strauss and Howe, albeit an “older Millennial” born in 1983.* But what is a Millennial? Here’s one definition from Strauss and Howe on Wikipedia:

Millennials Rising… describes the Millennial generation as “civic minded,” rejecting the attitudes of the Baby Boomers and Generation X. Generation Y’ers never truly rebelled against their parents, unlike prior generations, often enjoying the same music, movies and products as their parents. Generation Y has been described in a New York Times opinion piece as entrepreneurial and, “a ‘post-emotional’ generation. No anger, no edge, no ego.

Below, I talk about that “civic mindedness” and why it’s more important than ever. But, in the interest of providing a little more context, let me point out a couple other theories from Strauss and Howe:

They believe in distinct periods of time, and how generations affect, and are affected, by that time based on age. The past 10 years or so are called the “Crisis.” I also believe in the “Crisis” which isn’t hard to do, since we seem to be in the midst of one this year. And of course I believe that Millennials have an outsized role to play in overcoming the challenges of this crisis. I know that’s a big claim to make, and it’ll no doubt draw objections as the self-serving comment of someone part of the generation that’s supposed to make it all better.

Millennials: Like our grandparents, but different

On top of that, Millennials are already, and unduly, criticized enough by other generations for our perceived directionlessness, our preference for collaboration and mentoring. We’re not like the “go it alone” Me generation of Generation X. But, there was another generation like ours, perceived as directionless and soft, and famously underestimated by Hitler as doughy and untested. Once that generation of American GIs got to Germany, how did that turn out for Hitler?

Strauss and Howe make repeated connections between Millennials and the GI Generation: we’re the largest generation since then, the most focused on communitarian ideals and group identity, and the most liberal. Yes, you read that right — the most liberal. Sure, the Boomers had their Summer of Love, and Vietnam protests, but consider this: our grandparents of the GI Generation, in their middle age, were the ones helping marshall Civil Rights protests and laws, expanding on the New Deal, and providing the architecture for the War on Poverty. Kennedy and LBJ were both GI Generation presidents, and even Republicans of that generation sought to preserve elements of the New Deal, up until Reagan (who was famously elected by Hippies turned Yuppies). AND GI Elders leaned Obama in 2012 (see the cool breakdown of voting by generation here).

To get a sense of how much more liberal the GI Generation’s era was, check this out:

• Eisenhower campaigned specifically on maintaining the New Deal welfare state, but just making it more efficient.
• Nixon supported a “Family Maintenance Plan” that was essentially a universal basic income (Nordic socialist!).
• Nixon also supported a system of national healthcare that is remarkably similar to the Affordable Care Act.

Finally, the GI Generation had the highest generational affirmation of the ideals of social justice in the last Pew Research Survey in which they were a major factor (1987). In fact, they, together with two groups of poor voters, made up a “social justice coalition” according to Pew. It bears repeating: the Boomers may have been more liberated in terms of individual rights, but the GI Generation had communitarian liberalism in spades. That communitarian liberalism provided the basis for decades of stability, near full employment, and a high quality of life for the working and middle classes, as well as more concern for the poor. I’d be happy if Millennials could find a way to produce those results in our own time.

Are you ready to believe that the GI Generation and Millennials share communitarian liberalism in common, and that there might be something to this generational cycle thing?

What the world needs from Millennials

If your answer is yes, and you’re a Millennial, then you have to do something really important: YOU NEED TO VOTE. Why? Because the GI Generation, the former communitarian liberal bloc, voted in huge numbers and kept the country pretty liberal for a span of forty pretty awesome (on balance) years. When Millennials vote, the same thing happens — Obama in 2008 and 2012. Know what happens when Millennials stay home? The GOP takes Congress, like 2010 and 2014. Shame on us.

Millennials also need to do something equally important: we need to grow into civic maturity. Plenty of studies show we’re really into volunteerism, joining organizations and giving our time to causes. We need to start to channel that energy into taking on leadership roles in those organizations and leadership roles in our communities. Our unique voices and communitarian perspective can offer a lot to our communities and can start to shape how the future will look.

Another part to that civic maturity is engaging in politics. With some exceptions, we’ve been famously apolitical (here, I’m way out of step with my peers — I’ve loved politics since elementary school, which is probably weird no matter what generation I was born in). The GI Generation understood the importance of politics in shaping society and in providing opportunities to ensure community wellbeing. We need to lead in politics as well — there needs to be an answer to the individualist mantras being peddled by those on the Far Right and the lack of imagination on the Democratic side when it comes to responding to those attacks. I’m tired of “accepting” that politics can’t change — it’s time to actually make the change. We’re a generation of 93 million — if we want a change, it’s going to come.

Finally, 2016 has been making me think of T.S. Eliot’s The Wasteland a lot. I don’t really like thinking about T.S. Eliot, so, to be clear, I’m NOT thanking you, 2016. But, Eliot’s ending verse has been on my mind:

This is the way the world ends;
This is the way the world ends;
Not with a bang, but with a whimper.

Everyone in 2016 seems so damn confused about where to turn, as if we’ve been ambushed and haven’t been able to get our bearings yet. The old answers and old social agreements seem to be breaking down.

I look around for solid voices with solid solutions and the options are lacking. People seem close to despair. But, I think, this cannot be our whimper. Millennials, and others, need to summon the courage to take action and make change. That starts with the civic maturity I discussed above — voting and taking on leadership roles in our communities. We need to come together around ideas that can improve our nation and our neighborhoods and restoring the humanitarian ideals of ending hunger and homelessness and providing quality of life to all Americans.

Thanks for reading. If you want to be part of this conversation about Millennials and our role in the future, please follow this publication, or check out firesideblog.org for more.

Here’s the “TL;DR” version (too long; didn’t read): Generation theory is real. There are patterns to history. Millennials are tasked with building institutions and solving the current Crisis climate. If we fail, I have to think about T.S. Eliot more. I don’t like that. Let’s become “civic mature” leaders in our communities and politics and make a difference.

*There’s a difference between those of us born on the early end and those born later in the 80's/90's. I attribute almost all of this difference to the fact that I was musically conscious during the 90’s Alternative era and that my political consciousness was formed as a result of Nickelodeon doing a “Kids Vote” series where Kermit the Frog interviewed George Bush and Bill Clinton. Those things change a kid, but I digress.