2018 NBA Big Board: Off-Ball Guards
Published in
12 min readMar 14, 2018
Part 1 — The Temple of Guards
As we approach the end of the college season, it is time for us to release our positional big boards. It has been a long time coming, almost too long if you ask me, and we are pretty excited to release our first of four big boards detailing our favorite off-ball guard prospects for the 2018 draft.
I wanted to break down the prospects by position just to provide a little more context and insight into the dark corners of my brain, exploring what makes a “good” NBA prospect. It is a dangerous and often disorganized place that is filled with a lot of pop culture references and poor grammar.
When looking at the off-ball guard prospects for the 2018 draft, the first thing that stands out is the lack of elite talent. When the season started, I had three or four guards who I thought could be selected in the lottery, but as time went on, the red flags started popping up. Even though I have only one guy projected in the lottery, the list of prospects are talented and each one could be role players for years to come in the NBA.
Enjoy!
- Josh Okogie, Georgia Tech
Watchability Rating: 7.9 out of 10
Draft Range: Late lottery
Player Comp: Wes Matthews
Hot Take Central: If there is one guy I can see blossoming into an All-Star but currently sits outside the lottery for most people, it would be Josh Okogie. At 6’4 with a 7’0 wingspan and a graduate of the Marcus Smart School of Chaos, Okogie has everything you want in your wing. He has the length and frame needed to defend guards and wings at the next level, along with an expanding offensive skill set that should allow him to turn in to a vital asset for most teams. His ability to draw contact was apparent last year, but with his improved ball skills this year, it has really opened up the rest of his game and allowed him to become a better overall scorer. He has a good release that he can get off pretty quickly but he will never be an Iso type jump shooter, like Tatum or Mitchell. He is more of a catch-and-shoot type player, similar to Wes Matthews. Even though he is successful as a shooter and can drive, Okogie is at his best when his chaos is turned up to 100 and he gets to run wild on both offense and defense. It is far more apparent on offense, as Okogie is one of the best offensive rebounding guards , and a skill that I think makes him highly sexy in terms of NBA value. His motor and awareness allow him to get to balls on offense that other guards just don’t want to get. It might be the an actual detriment when it comes to defense though. His motor and length allow him to be successful in college, but he needs to refine his approach if he wants to become a lock-down perimeter defender in the NBA. - Jacob Evans, Cincinnati
Watchability Rating: 7.5 out of 10
Draft Range: Mid First
Player Comp: Danny Green
Hot Take Central: This should be read as a massive apology note to Evans, as I lost my way this season and forgot how good he actually is. Like Ponds, I had ranked Evans in my “Returning Player’s Big Board” at the start of the season, but like an old record, you often forget about how good it is due to all the newer, more obscure music being released. Evans is that prospect for me. Much like the debut album from Vampire Weekend, Evans is the guy that no matter how many 6’8 athletic, freak guards come out on a hot streak, his consistency will always make you come back to realize how good he actually is. Evans is as complete of a “glue guy” prospect that you can find in this draft, and once you get out of the lottery, those are the type of guys who save jobs. At 6’6 with a reported 6’10 wingspan, Evans has the length and instincts to turn into a vital on-ball defender in the NBA. He also has a good frame that could allow him to guard guys like Bradley Beal or Paul George, and even more importantly, he will enjoy the challenge of doing so. On offensive, Evans is known as a reliable three point shooter but I do believe his ball-handling and playmaking go unnoticed. He has shown enough to make me a believer that he can be a secondary initiator on a playoff team. If a team like the Sixers or Timberwolves drafts Evans, then watch out, because that team just a got a lot more dangerous in the future. - Shake Milton, SMU
Watchability Rating: 7 out of 10
Draft Range: Mid First
Player Comp: Dante Exum
Hot Take Central: The Shake Shack returned for his junior season, and did enough to solidify himself as a first round prospect. His upside definitely took a hit as it became clear that even with his ball skills and improved playing, his lack of burst and explosion will keep him from becoming a true primary initiator. Along with the lack of explosion, Shake’s lack of creative dribbling makes it difficult for him to get to the rim. An increased role within the offense has shown an uptick in finishes at the rim, but it is still apparent that he suffers when tasked to do so. His role in the NBA will be more of a spot-up shooter and secondary initiator, but that could be a good thing as Milton is a career 42% shooter from 3 and is isn’t known as a risk taker with the ball in his hands. He is a smart playmaker who doesn’t force any passes and can make the right read almost every time. On defense, Milton will have to make up for his lack of athleticism and strength by using is awareness to become a better team defender if he wants to stay on the court during crunch time. Milton reminds me a lot of Ntilikina without the defensive upside or Exum if he had more range on his jumper (two younger prospects that don’t have the IQ of Milton, which bodes well for his NBA value). He is a talented prospect and although he has athletic limitations, he should have enough key skills that provide him with a good foundation to build on in the NBA. - Lonnie Walker, Miami
Watchability Rating: 6.5 out of 10
Draft Range: Mid First
Player Comp: Terrence Williams
Hot Take Central: Lonnie Walker is the NBA prospect equivalent to the new Netflix show Altered Carbon. In theory, both sound awesome due to the idea of what they could be, but when you watch them, they leave you asking so many questions. Even though he hasn’t performed to preseason hype, in my opinion Walker is a guy I would pick in the top 25 due to his impressive build and upside. I think it is okay to take a swing on Walker after the first 15 or so picks. At 6’4 with a reported 7’0 wingspan and tipping the scale at 200+ pounds, Walker looks to have been built in a lab to be the perfect modern two-way guard. It’s too bad his on-court production does not match up, YET. Yes, he is playing much better than he did earlier in the year and that could be chalked up to injury rust, but for him to jump the other two he needs to become more consistent. Outside of his ridiculous body control, Lonnie doesn’t have anything that stands out among draft prospects this year. He is good at most things, but doesn’t really excel in any one area. Even with the lack of production, Walker has shown enough with his shooting and ability to attack to garner first round attention. Like Brown last year, I don’t think Lonnie has any real reason to return to Coral Gables other than the possibility that Lonnie enjoys listening to scrutiny and being under an even smaller microscope. - Bruce Brown, Miami
Watchability Rating: 6.5 out of 10
Draft Range: Late first
Player Comp: Orlando Magic Victor Oladipo
Hot Take Central: My overall opinion on Brown has soured to the point that I worry he might fall out of the first round entirely. The talent is there, but I worry that Brown is trying to do too much and is not letting the game come to him. I have no actual evidence of this, but it seems that the pressure of being the “man” has caused Brown to rush at all aspects of his game. Once he is slotted as a secondary/third scoring option, he will return to a more consistent form. Coming into the season, the idea of Brown turning into a lead guard created a potential overreaction to his skills as a ball handler, but having him off the ball will allow his talents to blossom. He will need to rely less on his athleticism in the NBA and become more consistent from 3, but like his playmaking skill, his shooting numbers should improve once he is not the focal point of the offense. His aggressive defensive attitude should keep Brown as a first round candidate, as he can guard three positions at a high mark. His underperformance this year, along with is age and lack of actual progression in weak areas has created a lot of negativity for Brown, so how he performs at the combine is important for his draft stock. - Khyri Thomas, Creighton
Watchability Rating: 5 out of 10
Draft Range: Early Second
Player Comp: Thick Avery Bradley
Hot Take Central: With the rampant success of Donovan Mitchell and even the minor success of Norm Powell, teams are finally realizing that length is almost more important than height. Like Mitchell and Powell, Khyri is a 6’3 muscular rock of a man with long arms who enjoys defense and making the opposing team’s best perimeter player feel inadequate. As far as comparing Khyri to Mitchell, it really stops at height, long arms, and defense, because the explosive nature and shot making ability that has made Mitchell a star in the NBA is not something Thomas has. Outside of a definite translatable jumper, Khyri has decent handles and average vision. Even though he will mostly be used as a spot-up shooter, he should find a role in the NBA just based off of his willingness to defend and his ability to stretch the floor. - Josh Reaves, Penn State
Watchability Rating: 6.5 out of 10
Draft Range: Early Second
Player Comp: Avery Bradley with Donovan Mitchell Athleticism
Hot Take Central: Reaves is a very similar player in terms of potential NBA role as Khyri Thomas, and this was a definite toss-up when ranking them among draft prospects. If we are going purely on upside, then I would take Reaves due to his supreme athleticism, but Khyri has better ball skills, a proven track record as a shooter, and has shown the ability to score off the dribble. Those three areas are all major red flags for Reaves. He struggles against mediocre defenders in college when dribbling, and he doesn’t really get fully to the rim. When Reaves drives, all of his layups seem like a flick of the wrist with far too much arch to not make me worry. Even though Reaves is a terror on D, his New Radicals* like year with shooting definitely has me concerned (which is why Khyri is above him). If his shooting is for real, and he turns out to be more of a Sugar Ray type shooter, then I get the hype as a top 25 guy. - D’Marcus Simonds, Georgia State
Watchability Rating: 7.5 out of 10
Draft Range: Early Second
Player Comp: Jordan Clarkson
Hot Take Central: When it comes to second round picks, I like to grab guys who can specialize in certain areas, and finding a talented volume scorer to come off the bench is huge. Guys like Jamal Crawford or Lou Williams have made a living off of this role, and I think D’Marcus Simonds has everything you need to become a primary scoring option off the bench. He is supremely confident, with enough athleticism to get to the rim and finish with either hand, but also crafty enough to find space and pull up from the midrange. His athleticism is not based on explosion or speed but instead body control and fluidity that allows him to get into the lane with relative ease. Even though he has a good looking jumper and hits at an average clip, Simonds will 100% need to become a more consistent shooter to succeed in the NBA. Along with consistency, his length is definitely my biggest concern and according to some reports it is almost at t-rex levels, but his sneaky athleticism could make up for it. I don’t like to bet against anyone that scores with such ease like he does, and add on that he was a former top WR recruit out of HS, Simonds is an NBA caliber talent just waiting for his opportunity. - Zach Norvell Jr, Gonzaga
Watchability Rating: 7 out of 10
Draft Range: Mid Second
Player Comp: …. Allen Crabbe with a Slight Chance of Michael Redd
Hot Take Central: Norvell probably won’t declare this year, but when watching him play the talent jumps off the page and it isn’t crazy in my mind to rank him among the top guards with NBA upside for this year. If he declared this year, he would fall into that mid-second round, and if he waits until next year then we could be looking at him being selected in the top 20. What excites me about Norvell is his killer’s mentality when the ball is in his hands. He isn’t the most overly athletic player, but that doesn’t stop him from being a three-level scorer in college. Instead of relying on athleticism like a Bruce Brown, Norvell finds success by being a very crafty driver in the mold of CJ McCollum. He understands how to get around his defender, which is fantastic because his ability to finish at the rim is really impressive. On 89 attempts, Norvell is finishing 74% of his shots at the rim. Even though he is doing it at a high mark in college, Norvell won’t be attacking the rim all too often in the NBA. Instead it will be his long range shooting that will help him carve out an NBA career. He has a quick lefty release that allows him to get it off without much space. Outside of scoring, Norvell has underrated vision, but due to his role on Gonzaga he doesn’t get the chance to show it off all to much. My main areas of concern are frame and if he can actually defend an NBA guard. Even though he isn’t terrible in college, Norvell’s lack of elite athleticism and frame could make him an offensive specialist in the NBA. - Markus Howard, Marquette
Watchability Rating: 9 out of 10
Draft Range: Second
Player Comp: Kyle Korver
Hot Take City: I don’t know how to make this politically correct, so proceed with caution. You need to have giant balls to succeed in the NBA if you are under 6’0, and I imagine that Markus Howard has some of the biggest. This kid is an absolute savage who can shoot from anywhere in the gym, and is up there with Shamet and Trae as the pure best shooters in this draft class. It doesn’t matter where he is gunning from, Markus can hit it and with high efficiency. This is going to get very stat-heavy but it needs to be done to show the level of shooter he is. Howard shoots a clean 93% from the line, 52% on 2 pt jumpers, and 39% on almost 14 attempts per 100 possessions from long distance. Those are just absurd numbers. Even though he is as quick as a waterbug, Howard is mostly a shooter as he isn’t a good enough athlete to finish at the rim. If you watch Trae in college, he scores at will much like Howard, but he can attack off the dribble and finish at the rim due to being a little more explosive off the bounce. My biggest concern with Trae is his ability to finish at the rim in the NBA, and if I have these concerns about a potential Top-10 pick then it means I REALLY worry about Howard when finishing at the rim. Regardless, you are not drafting Howard for his playmaking or ability to attack. In the NBA, I see him as guard who will be used in a similar vacuum as Kyle Korver. Run him off of a bunch of screens and let him shoot from outer space. Boom.
Honorable Mentions, I Guess:
- Jerome Robinson: Need to mention Jerome Robinson here, this guy is a stud. 6'5 guard with playmaking skills, will be interesting if he declares.
- Tyus Battle: He fell fast and is completely out of the top 10 after his awful performance against the Tar Heels in the ACC tourney.
- Terrence Davis: I thought he had upside as a 3-&-D wing, but he is an overrated shooter who enjoys chucking up shots.
- Quentin Rose: I still very much like his silky smooth game, ust think he needs one more year. Although I definitely overhyped him at the start of the year, he has shown that he has underrated vision and playmaking ability.
- Andrew Jones: A favorite of mine that was diagnosed with Leukemia. He is awesome, and I truly hope he can come back next season.
*Pop Culture Note: New Radicals is a band from the late 90s who had one song that was fucking awesome, but ultimately were labeled a one-hit wonder as no other song was ever really that good. Reaves improved shooting could potentially fall under the category of one-hit wonder.
