Pre-Lottery “What If’s”

Photo Cred: For The Win — USA Today

We are smack-dab in the middle of playoff basketball, which means we are only a few weeks until the fate of the non-playoff teams are decided. For fans of the teams in the lottery, this is often the culmination of the season and really the start of either misery or pure joy. My personal favorite aspect about the lottery and the draft in general is the idea of “what if”.

These are the ideas that drive NBA fans to lunacy, but more importantly, keeps us entertained when the games are over.

So, it got me thinking about some of the more intriguing storylines that could play out on May 16th when the Lottery goes down.

What if….

The Celtics Fall to #4

To say this situation would be an extreme disappointment for Celtics fans would be an understatement. Take it from one. This might seem like a dramatic take for a team who finished with the number one seed in the East, but if Danny and team don’t show up in these next couple of games, and then don’t get the top pick, every dude named Sully from the south shore and maybe even the north shore will actually call for Brad Stevens’/Danny Ainge’s jobs. Absolutely crazy narrative. From a completely unbiased perspective, if this does happen, it would be the most intriguing storyline, especially if the consensus top three (Markelle Fultz, Josh Jackson, and Lonzo Ball) are off the board. The Celtics would have to make some serious decisions. In my eyes, this is how their big board should play out in this scenario:

1. Jonathan Isaac, Florida State
2. Jayson Tatum, Duke
3. Trade down
4. Zach Collins, Zags

If you have watched the Celtics this year, the lack of offensive creators and defensive playmakers is wildy apparent, which is why Isaac and Tatum are the most logical choices to make in this scenario. In fact, even if the Celtics got the third pick after Fultz and Jackson have gone, I think both Tatum and Isaac would be considered before Ball. Isaac could very well be the defensive playmaker that the Celtics are missing. Even though he lacks the frame and muscle, his high IQ and length allow him to grab rebounds at a high rate and be a successful helpside rim protector.

Tatum, on the other hand, is the high volume scoring wing that the Celtics desperately need, even with the Jaylen Brown addition. Jae Crowder and Brown are two wings who can score within the rhythm of an offense, but lack the ability to create out of the ISO. If the Celtics want to commit to IT, they will have to find a guy who can be that number two option on offense. Tatum can be that guy. He has a Harrison Barnes floor with a Paul Pierce ceiling, and that is worthy of a top four pick.

The other two scenarios are more or less just ideas that would round out my top four choices to make if this happens. Trading back for more value is a smart strategy in football, and could yield some serious results in this theoretical situation as well. With that being said, however, trading back isn’t exactly “fun” talk, so I’m going to leave that one there. On the other side, Collins is the only big man that I can see making it this high into the lottery, especially if it plays out like this. His upside on both sides of the ball is impressive and would give the Celtics a young big to plug next to Horford moving forward.

The Sixers Get Two Picks

For this to happen, the Lakers will have to fall outside the top three, and to make it even sweeter (for any non-Lakers fans), the most likely scenario is Philly jumping the Lakers — pure evil. Although it would be enjoyable to see the Lakers suck this bad and not get a top pick, this is scenario is a real catch-22, particularly for us Celtics fans. While the Lakers would suffer, this would also mean that the Sixers get to add two young prospects to their already impressive core of young talent, and that could make them very scary for Eastern Conference foes. If the Sixers do jump the Lakers, it would probably mean that they jump to #2 or #3, and the Lakers fall to #4. The other very likely scenario is that both Philly and the Lakers drop one position, allowing the Sixers to get #4 and #5. If either happen, the best hauls would be:

1. #3 Josh Jackson, Kansas and #4 Malik Monk, Kentucky
2. #4 Jayson Tatum, Duke and #5 Malik Monk, Kentucky

I think Monk to Philly is every Monk fan’s wildest dream, as it would maximize his strengths and really hide his weaknesses. It isn’t rocket science when I say that Monk doesn’t have the handles to play PG, and being undersized makes him a risk on defense, but his shot-making ability is probably the best in the draft, and with Simmons running the offense, he should be able to get plenty of open looks.

In my opinion, grabbing Jackson over Tatum is preferred, since it means that they would have two wing defenders with Covington already on the roster. Although Tatum makes some sense as they desperately need a bucket-getter, I do think there is serious value with Covington as the glue guy on that team. Adding a ball-dominate, ISO player in Tatum would disrupt the offense they already have created, plus it would be a step back defensively comparing to what Covington can provide on that end. Alternatively, Jackson can provide guard and wing defense at an elite level, and can also play with the team flow. Additionally, he allows you to have two larger ball handlers on the court at one time with Simmons, which will cause serious match-up problems for opponents.

A Bottom 4 (Miami, Denver, Charlotte, or Detroit) Lottery Team Jumps into the Top 3

This is the unlikeliest of all the scenarios, but also one of the more fun ones to think about. Due to the limited roster size, seeing a team like the Hornets or Pistons make the jump into the top three would be awesome. These bottom four teams are only a few wins away from making the playoffs, and if they somehow landed a guy like Jackson or Fultz, then it would be lightning in a bottle. All four teams have less than a 1% chance of getting the top seed, and less than a 3% chance of jumping to the top three, but as the great Lloyd from Dumb and Dumber once said, “so you are saying there is a chance?” It would be pretty difficult to envision any team not taking Fultz if they had the opportunity, but it would be interesting to see how teams view Ball if they get the number three pick. I would think that most of these teams in particular would have Jonathan Isaac valued higher than Ball solely based on team fit and need. Again, for this scenario, we need some picks, right? Well, here is a brief overview of what (and why) I think each team might do if they landed the number three pick and Markelle Fultz and Josh Jackson were off the board.

1. Nuggets — Denver would be a dream landing spot for Jonathan Isaac. His length and defensive awareness would really help limit the lack of rim protection brought on by Jokic. His ability to stretch the floor and hit the midrange jumper would also allow the Nuggets to properly space the floor for Jokic.
2. Hornets — Charlotte is the most difficult team in this “what if” scenario to hypothesize. They don’t really need a wing like Tatum, since they have the equivalent guard archetype in Kemba, and having two ball stoppers would not be good for business. Ball or Monk could definitely play next to Kemba, but having another less-than-stellar on-ball defender in the backcourt would be devastating. Again, and this might be a boring/repetitive take, I think the smart choice would be to grab Isaac and let the length shine.
3. Pistons — If any team here takes Ball, it could be the Pistons due to how Reggie played when he came back from injury. It’s still a risky move, but I could definitely see them going that way, and it makes the decision easier when you have KCP on your roster. His ability to defend both guards would allow Ball to continuously take the less strenuous defensive matchup. I think the idea of an uptempo offensive makes sense for Drummond too, and could bring him back to relevancy as a franchise cornerstone.
4. Heat — Miami is another potential landing spot for Ball, but I really worry that this is the one spot that LaVar could come into play in a negative way. Whiteside and LaVar would equal more PPV buys than regular season wins. If they were to forgo Ball, I do think Jayson Tatum would fit in nicely with the current Heat roster, especially if Winslow continues his slow development.

The Knicks Land Top 3

As much fun as it is on my end to watch my New York friends suffer through miserable NBA seasons, having the Knicks as a prominent team in the NBA is important for basketball. The Knicks’ ownership needs to find some young talent to build around KP, and with Hernangomez already flashing skill, it is vital to find a young wing or guard to pair with them. With Phil in charge and their desire to force the triangle onto the team strong, a taller ball handler like Josh Jackson would be ideal if the Knicks land a top three pick. During Phil’s second reign with the Lakers he had Lamar Odom, and that is exactly the role Jackson could fit into while KP acts as Pau.

When it comes to Ball, even though he is a heady guard with the size and shot to succeed in the triangle, I worry that his true talent would be rendered useless there. It is pretty clear that Ball was built to run and his skills are of greater value when allowed to do so, but we all know Phil’s stubborn ways, and that will likely prevent Ball from showing his true potential in New York. Even though the Knicks need a PG, I would expect Jonathan Isaac to be number three on their big board over any guard (with the exception of Fultz), due to the weaknesses of the other guards in this draft and the desire to find a triangle match. This is a big “IF,” but IF the Knicks grab Ball AND Phil takes a chill pill, perhaps Lonzo could find a place in their system. As an added bonus in this unlikely scenario, maybe the bright lights of NYC would prevent LaVar from being too crazy. Idealistically, however, Knicks fans should hope for Josh Jackson and pray for the Patty Mills signing in the summer.

The Kings Get Back-to-Back Picks

This would really mark the ending of the DeMarcus Cousins experience in Sacramento, and hopefully bring fresh life into the organization. If the Kings do somehow get back to back picks in the lottery, then the sinister part of me hopes that Vivek goes full-blown David Kahn 2009 and drafts back-to-back PGs. While I don’t necessarily root against the Kings, I would find it absolutely incredible if Vivek ruins this franchise. Yes, I like to see the world burn. In all seriousness, if we are talking about what the Kings SHOULD do, then both a PG and a wing should be their priorities. This doesn’t seem unreasonable on the surface; however, outside of Tatum and Jackson (who will likely go earlier), there aren’t really any lottery-worthy wings on the board this late. If the Kings end up getting the 9th and 10th pick, in my eyes, the ideal scenario would be:

1. Frank Nkilitina, France
2. OG Anunoby, Indiana

De’Aaron Fox would be a great fit in Sacramento, but I don’t think he makes it this far. Another presumed choice I can see people claiming is Dennis Smith Jr., but I think the Kings drafting him would be bad for both parties. What this offense needs is a lead guard who looks to get others involved before getting themselves involved. DSJ would be explosive, but in my eyes it would be equivalent to Tyreke Evans, and no one wants that to happen again. Frank Nkilitina, on the other hand, is pretty raw but the risk could pay off. While he could be a big time bust, his physical profile and skillset scream 3-and-D from either guard spots, which is a good fall back plan. He might never grow into a lead guard like Schroder or Rondo, but he has serious length to be a great perimeter defender.

OG on the other hand could be considered a reach for the lottery since he is coming off an injury, but if he is able to get back to his level of play prior to being injured, then this will be a great grab. I personally don’t think Justin Jackson is worthy of a lottery pick, and even with the injury, I would put my money on OG. A lot of people also have the Kings going big, but with a strong core of young talent in the frontcourt, I worry that grabbing an additional big man would seriously deter their confidence.

What are some of the “what if” scenarios that you are hoping play out during this year’s lottery? Tweet us @TheFlagrant_2