Preseason Top-50 Big Board Of Returning Players for the 2019 Draft (24–11)
Part 2: These Guys Are PRETTY PRETTY Good.
With Part 1 of our Top-50 Big Board of Returning Players in the books, we now get to move onto Part 2, which features a list of strong draft prospects that should start out as projected mid-to-late first rounders with the upside of jumping into the lottery if everything goes smoothly for them this season. The likelihood of that is probably pretty small, but we here at the Flagrant 2 like to be positive as negativity is for the birds. So yea, everyone listed below is going to look awesome next season.
Much like Part 1, there are a lot of guys in this that have been Malik Poperized* almost to the point of no return for us.
The most important aspect of Part 2 is that it reads from 24–11 and doesn’t go in reverse order like Part 1. Wasn’t as lazy as I was when posting Part 1.
24. PJ Washington, University of Kentucky
Archetype: Potential Stretch Big
Comparison: Brandon Bass
Hot Take City: The only guy on this list that gets some hype for what I’ve seen from him in the off-season is PJ Washington, and for good reasons as his biggest weakness might have been fixed. Coming into his sophomore season, PJ Washington looked to be the part of a dominate HS recruit who just was born in the wrong era but after seeing him hit a handful of 3 this preseason, I am not going to lie, I bought in fairly quickly. The shot looked sexy. There will always be concerns with Washington as he is relatively short at 6’7, lacks elite burst and really isn’t an isolation type scorer but if you add a potential jumper to an already high energy big with a 7’3 wingspan then watch out. When watching PJ play, and it is bold to say but there is a small chance of him turning into Paul Millsap. The likelihood is small, but possible. When moving away from the idea of PJ turning into a jump shooter and looking at what else he can already do to help an NBA team, the first thing that stands out is his ability to run in transition but it is his IQ as a roll man and ability to move without the ball in the half-court that will get NBA teams excited. As a roll-man, He sets good screens, can be relied on to make the right read and is an efficient scorer around the basket. He is more of a below the basket scorer, which could be an issue with more athletic bigs in the NBA, but he does create a lot of contact and gets to the line. If his improved 3 is a false god, improving on his FT% will be huge for him next season, and probably his most important area of improvement in terms of team success. On defense, his length will cover his height and makeup for his lack of speed, but he does need to add some weight as his 235ish pounds is not something he can hide in the NBA on the low-block. His rim protection isn’t bad, but I am far less concerned with that because I don’t think teams in the NBA are looking at PJ to be their defensive anchor. He just needs to compete, box out when necessary and go up strong without fouling.
23. Bruno Fernando, University of Maryland
Archetype: High Energy Big (Bench Style)
Comparison: Montrezl Harrell
Hot Take City: There is a lot to like with Bruno, like a lot but for him to take the next leap, there are some holes that he will need to fix if he wants to be more than a high-energy big who is used as a roll-man in the NBA. I do have hope that he could turn into a shooter as evidence to his 74% FT shooter along with his form being pretty smooth, I just hope he can get enough opportunities to do so next season. If Bruno never learns to shoot, his value of course goes down but the things he does on the court now will give him a great foundation in the NBA. His length and frame are things that will never go out of style, and when tied with his motor then you can start to see where his impact may reside. His overall impact is most likely him turning into a spot starter or first big off the bench, which in the grand scheme of things is pretty important. Outside of extending his range, the key areas for growth with Bruno are; becoming less predictable with the ball in his hands, carving out more space for rebounds and becoming a more consistent shotblocker. Similar to Jaren Jackson last year, someone who has Bruno’s frame, length and athleticism should be pulling down more than 6.5 RPG. Yes, I understand that he grabs “24% of all DRB for his team” and he played alongside another big last season which deflates his stats but all i am saying is that Bruno this season should be eating rebounds for breakfast, brunch, lunch, dinner and desert.
22. Isaiah Roby, Nebraska
Archetype: Honestly, No Idea …. Guess 3 & D
Comparison: Andre Roberson
Hot Take City: The 2019 draft is shaping up to have a lot of rangey athletic versatile defenders with limited offensive games and Isaiah Roby might just be the strangest of them all. The main reason that Roby is so unique is attempting to figure out his best possible position in the NBA, as he has the size of a wing, vision of a decent lead guard, the scoring package of a bigman and the rim protection of an elite defender while all of it being wrapped together with some incredibly explosive athleticism. I don’t think Roby will ever learn to be a ball-handler, but he has shown some flashes but the two key areas of growth or at least to track is his increased usage and overall frame. On the surface his shooting numbers from range seem to be pretty decent, but his 17% usage rate needs to be up a little more for me to buy into his 3 point shooting numbers from last year. If he can continue to hit in the mid 70s from the line, and show that his shooting from range isn’t a flash in the pan when given more reps then I like Roby to be a Top-25 guy next season. He needs to add muscle, because without a 3 point game, his 215 pound frame is going to get abused when he gets to the NBA regardless of what position he is tasked to guard. His BBIQ might be top-5 in the draft next year as well, and is really good off-ball.
21. Jaylen Hands, UCLA
Archetype: Lead Guard
Comparison: Jerryd Bayless/Jason Terry …..
Hot Take City: The Curious Case of Jaylen Hands is an interesting one, and potentially one of the more intriguing prospect storylines for the 2018–2019 season. With Holiday and Welsh gone, the Bruins are going to need Hands to make that sophomore leap with more efficiency and less risk taking. Hands’ freshman season at UCLA is the perfect representation of the over used phrase, “Roller Coaster Ride” as the 6’3 rail thin guard displayed a high-level of offensive upside but also showed the world that he isn’t ready to be a lead guard just yet. The nicest way to put it is that Hands plays basketball like the latest Bon Iver album*; where beauty and destruction have a cohesive yet unpredictable relationship which creates mixed results. On the surface, Hands looks the part of an NBA starting caliber lead guard with Gilbert Arenas like scoring upside but the little nuances of the game are still the major detriment to his overall production. He excels in transition, has a smoother than expected pull-up game and underrated athleticism but his frame is wildly thin like it is insane how skinny he is and he isn’t much of a playmaker just yet but that is why his sophomore season is so important to his overall development. He showed glimpses of being a capable playmaker, but he needs to hone in on the flashy play and be a little more boring. To go along with him improving on his frame and playmaking, it would be nice to see him attack the rim a little bit more than he did last season.
On an incredibly unrelated note, i loved Bon Iver’s 22, A Million.
20. Ja Morant, Murray State
Archetype: Lead Guard
Comparison: Jrue Holiday
Hot Take City: Okay, let me start off by saying that Ja Morant is a really really good player but the hype on him is a little overblown to me. Yes, Morant is looking like a swiss-army knife lead guard with his playmaking skills, ability to grab rebounds in traffic and pogo-stick like bounce but there is something missing from him for me to totally buy in as him being the best returning lead guard prospect. His athleticism allows for a great building block, as he has great body control and can finish through contact at an impressive rate for someone with his slight frame but outside of his downhill attacking style of play, I see some holes in his game. His midrange game is somewhat non-existent, and his long range shooting is mostly spot-up jumpers that he hits at a low rate. He really needs to showcase a more well-rounded offensive package for me to buy into the hype 100%. The good thing is he has shown the ability to hit FTs and get to the line at a high rate. As a freshman, Morant got to the line on average of 4x per game, and that should only go up in year 2. As always, the ability to hit FTs at a high rate gives hope for a better showing from Morant from long range next season. The freshman year numbers align with what is expected for a freshman but Morant needs to dominate the Ohio Valley Conference this upcoming season for me to take him 100% serious as a legit Top-20 draft pick. If Morant goes out and does what D’Marcus Simonds did last year against weaker competition then I will jump right on that bandwagon. He reminds me of Jrue for his all-around game, along with his defensive upside.
19. Jamorko Pickett, Georgetown University
Archetype: Two-Way Wing
Comparison: Far To Early … but Tayshaun Prince
Hot Take City: Another Malik Pope-esque story here, where the upside of what Pickett could be outweighs his actual production. The first thing that stands out when watching Pickett is his Tayshaun Prince frame and his long ass arms. It might be that he is skinny as hell that his arms stand out, but like Melvin Frazier last year, his arms seem to stretch to the moon. With his length and more importantly his role on the team, Pickett was able to showcase his defensive upside fairly regular last year. As the key wing defender, Pickett moves his feet pretty well for a freshman but has good enough speed to recover when beat. His length allows him to make up for mistakes. On offense, he was allowed to shoot a lot more than most freshman, especially one that is on a team that runs their offense through a brooding big man. He showed that he is more than just a spot-up shooter, which gives me hope that the foundation on his offensive upside is just being built now. Alongside his shooting, Pickett has some underrated handles and will be something to really track this year, due to the Hoyas needing extra production from him with Derrickson leaving a year early. If he can continue his path on becoming a reliable marksmen, add some muscle to his frame and showcase a more advanced dribbling package then we could be looking at a Top-15 pick. If I were to guess what guy could go Top-20 next June that isn’t being talked about now, it would be Pickett.
18. Kenny Wooten, University of Oregon
Archetype: High Energy Big
Comparison: Jeff Adrien on Steroids
Hot Take City: It could be something about Eugene, Oregon but Kenny Wooten plays a lot like the Bay Area’s new favorite son Jordan Bell. When you watch Wooten play; beauty, skill and technique are three words that wont ever be mentioned unless destruction and chaos is something you find beautiful. If that is the case, then you might need some help. Going into his second year at the Marcus Smart School of Controlled Chaos, Wooten much like DeAndre Hunter is on the court for what he does defensively rather than his scoring ability. Unlike Hunter who is a lockdown one-on-one defender, Wooten gets his praise for his shot blocking ability and strength. At 6’9 Wooten seems to be a little undersized but armed with next-level athleticism and a 7’2 wingspan, he more than makes up for it. Outside of his great rim protection and unreal athleticism, Wooten is a fantastic offensive rebounder and his ridiculous levels of strength that allow him to finish at a very high rate around the rim. There isn’t much there in terms of offensive skills, like dribbling or shooting but if you can jump high, set great screens and catch any lob thrown around the rim then you are set for a career in the NBA.
17. Lindell Wigginton, Iowa State
Archetype: Lead Guard
Comparison: Lou Williams
Hot Take City: The love for Wigginton starts with his supreme confidence and high-level shotmaking ability, which is among the very best in the nation for lead guards. As a scorer, Wigginton can points up from anywhere on the court and is a much more dangerous shooter than people expect. Due to his relentless attacking mentality and highlight reel dunks, his outside shooting can go unnoticed but he could be up there as one of the best shooters in next year’s draft as he shot close to 41% on over 9 attempts per 100 possessions. I will say that it is surprising to see someone so deadly from deep shoot only 66ish% from the FT line, especially since he averaged close to 5 attempts per game. For him to take that next step as a threat, hitting on those will be huge. Along with improving his FT%, he needs to display a much better feel for playmaking if he wants to take that next step in NBA value. If he can cut back on his TOs while showcasing an overall improvement on getting the ball to his open teammates, then he has serious upside as a starter in the NBA due to his scoring ability. As of now, Lindell can find the open man on a drive as he forces defenses to collapse on him but like a lot of young QBs, it is the need to find the secondary or third option that is missing. Being such a “direct” playmaker will lead to TOs in the NBA. The likelihood of him going from pure microwave scorer to Damian Lillard-lite is possible, he just needs to make some minor tweaks to his game. He is also pretty old for a sophomore, but that isn’t the end all be all for development.
16. Shamorie Ponds, St. Johns
Archetype: Lead Guard ….. Microwave Scorer to the Max
Comparison: Nick Van Exel ….
Hot Take City: The path of success in 2018–2019 for Ponds is simple. He has shown that he can score, defend on an island and take hits but for him to really be considered a lock as a Top-30 guy then his shooting needs to become more consistent and becoming a full on primary playmaker is a must. With a high usage rate expected; the shooting #s will always be just a little lower due to volume but he still needs to display a better mindset when it comes to the shots he does take. Last season Ponds took a lot of bad shots due to need, but laying off those this year and finding the open man will only help for his draft outlook. I love Ponds, and will probably watch almost every game of his. That wasn’t really a necessary thing to add but I just wanted to do so.
15. Ky Bowman, Boston College
Archetype: Lead Guard
Comparison: Starbury …. Yes, Steph Marbury
Hot Take City: Yes, I love Ky Bowman, and it shouldn’t be crazy to see him ranked in the Top-20 going into next season especially with Jerome Robinson no longer on the team. As the go-to guy for the Eagles, Bowman will be able to show his ability to run a team which is probably the most important area of growth for him. Everything else about Bowman screams NBA player, and if he can show that he can run even an average offense without being too risky with the ball then he should see his name called in the first 40 picks next summer. Alongside his offensive arsenal, which could make him the ACC leading scorer next season, Bowman has unreal quickness with the ball in his hands, is a freaking tank with great strength and is constantly improving on the defensive end. Along with Charles Matthews, who is 6'6, Bowman is probably 1B on the list of best rebounding guards in this class. If Bowman can take the next steps as an initiator, hone in on the chaos and shoot a little better from range then teams are going to drool over him. There is some sneaky good upside to Bowman, if he hits on his shooting and playmaking, to the point where I think he has some All-Star level equity. Fastest guy among draft prospects?
14. Daniel Gafford, University of Arkansas
Archetype: Rim Runner
Comparison: Mean John Henson
Hot Take City: If I removed all the jokes about muscles, I could easily paste the same copy that I wrote for Robert Williams last summer and it would reflect how i see Gafford perfectly. He is a rangy athletic rim protector who is currently a lob specialist with a small chance of adding either a decent post game or some sort of stretch ability. Like Robert Williams, outlining the possibility is a must due to Gafford’s pretty decent mechanics but the likelihood is relatively small. Gafford has a low ceiling, but might have one of the best floors in the draft at this moment due to his defensive skill-set, length and great hands. He will probably fall into the mid to late teens, but he is a modern day roll-man who can help any team fighting for a playoff spot.
13. Jarrett Culver, Texas Tech
Archetype: Two-Way Wing
Comparison: Gary Harris
Hot Take City: Outside of Carsen Edwards, I don’t think there is any one player ranked in my Top-20 that has more added pressure to them this season than Culver. With both Keenan Evans and Zhaire making money, Culver will be tasked to carry much of the scoring burden while also being asked to defend the opposing team’s toughest perimeter talent. At the moment, Culver is very much a 3&D prospect but if he can show the ability to attack off the dribble and create for others than his value in the NBA is that much more enticing. His shooting is his calling card as he shot close to 40% last year but due to the added workload, his numbers will most likely drop this year for obvious reasons. Alongside his shooting, his frame is top notch as he looks to be a guy that can really bulk up and even though I can’t really find any official measurements, his wingspan looks to be an added weapon to his defensive skill-set. His biggest issue is his burst off the dribble and pure jumping ability. I have a lot of hot takes, but having Jarret at #13 might be the one that comes back to bite me in the ass the hardest. He could legit go Top-10 if he progresses into that go-to scorer.
12. Kellan Grady, Davidson
Archetype: Potential Lead Guard
Comparison: Devin Booker
Hot Take City: Every basketball fan loves a bucket-getter and for next season, you wont find many better than Davidson’s sophomore guard Kellan Grady. Even though I really want to, it is very dangerous and stupid to compare him to the other high-scoring Davidson alum, but Grady’s offensive skill-set is so advanced that it isn’t crazy to think he can go Top-20 next season. When looking at his offensive package, his long range shooting is what will get him attention and eventually paid but his ability to take his man off the dribble should be almost as high. He has a very quick jab step that gets his man off-balanced enough for Grady to get around him and get to the bucket. Coming into his second season, Grady will be on the scouting report a lot more than he was last year but if he can continue to score at will and show teams that he can be a lead guard then we could be looking at the A10 POY. The only downside for Grady right now is his lack of elite athleticism and frame, which again sounds like I am talking about that same Davidson alum. Even though he does seem to get bumped off course a bit when taking it to the bucket, he has some craftiness to his game that allow him to still finish at a decent clip around the rim. Going into next season, the areas of importance for me is how he plays as the focal point of the Davidson offense, especially his decision making with the ball in his hands. If he can turn into a true primary initiator in college, then his value goes through the roof. Playing without Peyton Aldridge will be an tough adjustment, especially when learning the ropes of the PnR but Grady has good enough BBIQ in my opinion to stay on top of it.
11. Nickeil Walker-Alexander, Virginia Tech
Archetype: Potential Lead Guard
Comparison: Dion Waiters
Hot Take City: Like Lonnie Walker this past year, the idea of NWA is probably greater than what he actually turns into, but as a 6’6 guard with great range and upside as an initiator, it only makes sense to rank him as a Top 10 returning prospect. Guys with his archetype will always be a hot commodity among draft addicts Like I said, the foundation is there for him to become a lottery level talent but he needs to display a higher level of offensive weaponry outside of spot-up shooting and scoring in transition. He isn’t the most gifted athlete on the list, and due to his lack of serious burst, it is difficult for him to score in the half-court unless he is being used in catch-and-shoot situations. He does have a level of sneakiness to his game that has shades of Ginobili, that allow him to attack but it isn’t enough to give him the nod over guys above him. If he can bulk up, then his lack of burst isn’t as big of a concern as he can just will his way to the rim like James Harden. Yes, I used TWO Hall of Famers to describe someone ranked 11th on a Returning Players list but that is life. NWA is one of the more interesting sophomores in recent memory, and his development over the next year will be a great storyline to watch. He has the opportunity to really turn himself into the prototype lead guard if everything hits correctly.
