The Case for the Electoral College and the Election: Biden v. Trump
The Electoral College is an institution erected as one of the great compromises made in the United States Constitutional Convention in the year 1787. It is the mechanism for electing the President of the United States that continues to this day. Prior to this period, the colonies were governed by the flawed Articles of Confederation who, amongst many things, prevented national prosperity. Authorities could not levy taxes, regulate trade, create a national currency, and were solely governed by a legislative body. However, following Shays Rebellion (1787), the most prominent individuals of the era congregated -in the summer- to institute a new, better legislative document: The United States Constitution.
Aware of the dangers of despotism, the Founding Fathers constructed an institution that would limit popular sovereignty and prevent demagogic candidates from reaching office. Ideally, it would be formed by a conglomerate of knowledgeable minds that would evaluate candidates and put forth the best one for office. Hence, the popular vote would be a means to representation, yet not the decisive component to election. Unlike the Founding Fathers’ primary motive, the Electoral College throughout history has shown to artificially inflate minority governments and has failed to represent small states with minuscule populations.
The Electoral College functions as follows: states given their demographics -meaning their population number-, are attributed to a certain number of electoral votes. The larger the state population, the grander the influence. Demographics are calculated every ten years under the decennial census. Parting from it, the number of house representatives varies which in turn modifies the number of electoral college votes the state may have for the following decade. In the means of justifying the aforementioned, California will be posed as the example: the state of California has 2 senators and 53 representatives which accordingly represent each congressional district; hence, the total number of electoral votes attributed to the state towards a presidential election are 55. In its entirety, the Electoral College institution is composed of 538 electors; for a candidate to rightfully be selected for office, he must obtain at least 270 electoral votes.
Throughout United States history, some states have predictively followed repetitive elective patterns that prompt candidates to assure their votes -these are denominated as safe states. However, states that are prognostically bound to have no definite decision pattern are classified as swing states. Hence, every four years when the process of election commences, candidates target their campaigns and proposals to appeal to battleground states as: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin.
In arguing the case for the Electoral College it is of substantial significance to address the blind line between popular sovereignty and the electoral process. While yes, it is common to see the preferred candidate win both the electoral college and the popular vote, cases such as the Gore v. Bush and Clinton v. Trump acutely exemplify the disputable side to the Electoral College. As is suggested by Sean Illing -a Vox news journalist- in a political opinion piece titled “A Definitive Case Against the Electoral College” the United States is confirmed by a conglomerate of purple states rather than extrinsic and individualized blue and red states. Under the eye of the United States Constitution, the people are bound to choose their leader. Under its eye, the people are bound to be governed by democracy; yet, the democratic republic instituted by and for the people has failed the very institution it has aimed to represent. The Electoral College is not democracy as a president can be brought to the office not with the will of the people but by the power of a flawed electoral institution. Until no recognition of this error is acclaimed, democracy and popular sovereignty will not seize.
Over a 20 year stretch period ending in the year 2016, the state of Michigan was firmly deemed Democratic. Parting from 1992 through 2012, the state showed great levels of support for blue-lined candidates as Clinton, Gore, Kerry, and Obama; 270 to win a popular pole site, reflected Michigander support for Democratic candidates going well above the 51.2% margin (270towin.com). Notwithstanding, in the presidential election of 2016 with candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald J. Trump, Michigan for the first time after two decades, went Republican and awarded its 16 electoral votes to the current president of the United States. Now, after four years of a tumultuous presidency, Trump seeks reelection; this time, newly introduced battleground states such as Michigan will be on the verge in the decision-making process to elect the next president of the United States of America.
According to the polling data provided by FiveThirtyEight, Biden displays a significant lead to Donald Trump who since June, has been trailing the Democratic nominee by an approximate 7.5% margin. Out of the 40,000 times, the election was simulated, outcomes -measured in a 100 point scale- measure Biden significantly ahead of the president, marking an 86:14 difference meaning most likely, Michiganders will vote Democrat come November 3rd. In the plot scale evaluating possible results, the mean forecast places the most probable and accurate outcomes on Biden winning by a +10 voting margin. The forecasts that are now being provided on Michigan throughout the month of September are based on a 70% influence on polling results and a 30% predictability outcome based on prior elections. Parting from this juncture, FiveThirtyEight awarded each pollster an A-F grade to evaluate their efficacy. Results range as follows: Trafalgar Group and Change Research were both awarded C-, Marketing Resource Group and ALG Research are trailing in a B/C, all while EPIC-MRA and YouGov follow with a respective B+ and B, Marist College, remains the sole A+ holder, and therefore, the more reliable poll site to assess over the next 20 days.
With the presidential race well underway, the people are hesitant to know who the next president of the United States will be. While the polls show Joe Biden significantly ahead in battleground states as Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, and more, the political future of the country is everything but definite. As is evaluated over the course of this paper, the electoral college is bound to prop up minority governments therefore making it relatively easier for president Donald J. Trump to win a second term. However, when reviewed next to his Democratic opponent Joseph R. Biden, his political approach demonstrates little appeal to people of the United States and their most pressing issues: the pandemic, the economy, systematic racism v. law and order, the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg and the appointing of a new supreme court justice (Amy Coney Barret), and climate change just to name a few. Additionally, other intrinsic factors as mail-in voting must be addressed as failing to do so, will only assure the American voter that casting their ballot in November will be indifferent.
After reviewing some of the talking points that were addressed in the First Presidential Debate, it became clear that both candidates are firm on their positions and unwilling to open discussion on matters that will sway undecided voters to their respective nominees. While Trump determinately believes that Americans are looking for the restoration of law and order, for a thriving economy, and for an influential power figure; Biden sides with the idea that American voters are looking for comfort amidst the global pandemic, affordable healthcare, action taken towards climate change, an end to systemic racism, and equality of rights throughout the board.
It can most definitely be affirmed that the Democratic Candidate will take the popular vote; nonetheless, the Electoral College decision still remains unclear for most Americans. Yes. Joseph R. Biden is leading the polls and shows a promising future; however, the artificial inflation of minority governments challenges the president’s opponent to win both electoral and popular votes by grander margins -making it the sole and most methodical way to obtain a concession from the president. If these results play out otherwise, the United States could well find themselves looking at a similar scenario like that of The Hanging Chad in the year 2000. There, votes had to be counted in distinct Florida districts to assure both Gore and Bush, that the presidential election was a righteous and fair one.
The case being that the same would occur in this 2020 presidential election -whereby president Trump would challenge the election results following November 3rd, the case would go to the house of representatives where a statewide vote would take place. If a tie were to be declared, the vice president would weigh in; if results still are not veridically resolved, the 2020 election would become a congressional matter appealed to the supreme court which is worth mentioning, has an open vacancy waiting to be filled -more so by president Trump.
Being now about 32 days away from the presidential election, the people of the United States are faced with one of the grandest political decisions in modern world history. With a global pandemic well underway and an increasing amount of social movements, both candidates are being pressed to establish the groundwork for what the next four years of their presidency would look like. As one moves forward in the electoral process, it will be of grand significance for all Americans to follow the news and keep themselves informed on the matter they find the most pressing as after November 3rd, the United States may well find itself in a period of obscurity characterized by political uncertainty and turmoil.
