1/30/14: Who Has the Best Starting Rotation in the AL East?
The office elevator is the cold, wood-paneled hub of small talk — a fascinating place where “sure is cold out “ and “take care” and “how old is your [son/daughter] again?” gets volleyed among the drowsy, the bewildered, the sometimes cranky tenants of 6x8 cubes.
The code was broken on a Wednesday, the day the Yankees announced the signing of Japanese star Masahiro Tanaka. The building’s chief Boston Red Sox supporter exclaimed (to my boss, the New York Yankee fan), “At least the Sox have all their guys coming back. They’ve got the best staff in the East!”
The boss, a mild-mannered pragmatist, smiled and shrugged. Even with Tanaka, he’s dubious about New York’s starting pitching after a lackluster 2013. But it raised the question: Do the world champion Red Sox have the best starters in the AL East, or is the elevator going down?
The breakdown…
Boston Red Sox: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Jake Peavy
Lester appears to be cured of what ailed him down the stretch in 2011 and throughout 2012. Last year was a bit uneven, but he finished right in line with his career average (15–8, 3.75) and had a brilliant playoff run (4–1, 1.56). He will be looked to for consistency alongside Lackey, who exceeded expectations in his return from elbow surgery and looked like the pitcher the Red Sox thought they were getting when they signed him.
Peavy was helpful down the stretch in ‘13, but he’s logged more than 23 starts just once since 2008, making Felix Doubront’s continued development vital to this year’s club. The 26-year-old lefty was a touch better in his sophomore season and his postseason effectiveness (albeit out of the bullpen) should provide confidence going forward. If Peavy is hurt or Doubront (71 walks in 162.1 innings) can’t find the strike zone, Ryan Dempster is still on the payroll and some well-regarded prospects wait in the wings. Allen Webster and Brandon Workman are the most ready of the bunch.
The wild card is Buchholz. When he’s healthy and right, he’s one of the top pitchers in the league, but the fragile righty has missed 45 starts since 2010.
With everyone on board, the Red Sox have a seasoned, World Series-tested rotation. If not, they’ll struggle to keep pace with the deep, talented Rays.
Tampa Bay Rays: David Price, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, Chris Archer
Pitchers and catchers report on Valentine’s Day and Price, the best arm in the division, remains on the Rays’ roster. The prospect of a trade could hang over the team until July — will it affect Price’s performance?
If he goes, the drop-off from Price to Moore is more substantial than Moore’s 17 wins and 2013 All-Star selection suggest. Over a span of five days, Moore often goes from Tom Seaver to Daisuke Matsuzaka. His 17 wild pitches (most in the AL) and 76 walks (sixth) limit his ability to go deep into games.
Tampa has strategically assembled the deepest rotation in the division. Cobb had a tremendous 2013, if you leave out the part where he got drilled in the head by a line drive. Archer had a very effective rookie campaign and the strike-throwing machine is primed for 15 or more wins in 2014. Jake Odorizzi (acquired in the James Shields trade) and Alex Colome will be ready to step forward if Jeremy Hellickson, Rookie of the Year just three years ago, continues his descent from mediocrity to disaster.
Despite questions at the front- and back-ends of the rotation, depth has been a hallmark in recent seasons for the small-market Rays. New York has outspent Tampa many times over, but the 2014 success of its staff is less of a sure thing.
New York Yankees: CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, Hiroki Kuroda, Ivan Nova
The heavy-duty pickup truck Sabathia has taken on a few dents the last two seasons; 2013 was easily the worst of his career. According to River Ave. Blues, the issues go beyond weight and velocity — it’s his arm slot. The result: fat pitches over the middle of the plate. Tanaka will be paid like an ace and the Yankees may need him to be one. He brings a sterling reputation from Japan but the only guarantee is something between Darvish and Dice-K. It’s anybody’s guess at $155 million.
Kuroda had a tough second half of 2013 (3–7, 4.25) but has otherwise been remarkably consistent since arriving in the States. The Yankees are counting on him for a bounce-back at 39. Nova is the New York version of Doubront — he’s not counted on like the big names, but building on 2013 (9–6, 3.10 in 20 starts) would be appreciated.
Michael Pineda hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2011 but if the 25-year-old still possesses that power slider, the Yankees could have the best fifth starter in the division, perhaps all of baseball. There is a great deal of intrigue in the high ceilings of the Yankee starters, a stark contrast from the ho-hum nature of Baltimore’s staff.
Baltimore Orioles: Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris
The O’s have been quiet this offseason, and while one could quickly blame Peter Angelos’ tight fists, Dan Duquette apparently has some money to spend. The hazy market conditions created by Tanaka have cleared and a veteran signing would help a mediocre rotation behind ace Tillman, allowing Brian Matusz to stay in the bullpen, Kevin Gausman to develop and Dylan Bundy to rehab from elbow surgery.
Tillman has made The Leap. He boasts a 25–10 record since July of 2012 and has killed the Red Sox, with a 4–1 mark and just 12 earned runs allowed in his last eight starts against the world champs. Gonzalez and Chen are classic Dan Duquette pickups (scrap heap, Asia) who have delivered as middle-of-the-rotation guys the last two years. Norris will do Bud Norris things — attempt to stave off catastrophe and pitch .500 ball.
The O’s rotation may be nothing special but there are fewer question marks than in Toronto.
Toronto Blue Jays: R.A. Dickey, Brandon Morrow, Mark Buehrle, J.A. Happ
The Jays come off a wildly disappointing 2013 looking to erase bad memories. Josh Johnson and his 6.20 ERA are headed for San Diego. R.A. Dickey, 39, is the ace but the taillights have faded on his magical three-year run with the Mets that culminated in a Cy Young Award. Mark Buehrle will make 33 starts and win 12–15 games like he always does.
After Dickey and Buehrle, the Jays badly need someone to eat innings. Jays Journal suggests kicking the tires on Bronson Arroyo, et al. They’re hoping for health from Brandon Morrow, who remains a step or two shy of putting it all together and is now nearly 30 years old. J.A. Happ will do his best impression of former teammate Bud Norris in the fourth slot, and it looks like top prospect Marcus Stroman is still a year away.
This post was originally published to Yahoo! Sports on January 30, 2014.
