11/10/16: This is the Song that Doesn’t End

Photo by Arturo Pardavila III on Flickr

Daylight saving time is upon us.

I exit my office most afternoons to dark streets, and while the evening air has been thick with an Indian summer feel the past few days, I know it can’t last, for Daylight Savings always wins. Even baseball bows to the Undefeated Heavyweight Champ of November…a few times the Fall Classic has dared tiptoe into the eleventh month but The Game knows, like a drive to left in the autumn wind, like the dead plants in the garden, it too, will be cut down.

A New Englander’s thoughts turn to the next time it’ll be appropriate to wear shorts — probably some freak 70 degree day in March, while the local nine roasts on Florida fields, tuning up for a 2017 season that may or may not begin amidst snow flurries in the north. It’s only natural to wonder what that team will look like and the storylines that will lead them to Fort Myers. For every Bob Hamelin or Gary Gaetti looking for one last shot at glory (my favorite part of Spring Training), there will undoubtedly be the big money free agent (these are the Red Sox, after all), certain to be pecked at by the free range Boston sports media, while elsewhere, some kid will materialize, put up huge Grapefruit League numbers, and be met with the chorus of “small sample size — let’s see him do it in the big leagues” up and down the radio dial.

Let’s face it — the bones of this 93-win team from a year ago need a glass of milk.

Start with the Papi-sized gap on the lineup card. The uninspiring-at-best John Farrell remains at the helm, as presumed break-glass-in-case-of-fire assistant Torey Luvullo defected to Arizona. Despite Hanley Ramirez’ throwback 2016, the corner infield positions don’t exactly inspire confidence. The free agent market is loaded with 1B/DH types, so it’s likely a new face will partner with Ramirez and Mookie Betts in the middle of the order.

Does Pablo Sandoval deserve a second helping at the hot corner?

Will Jackie Bradley’s breakout year result in a trade while his value is high?

Who’s the catcher?

In the bullpen, Junichi Tazawa is toast (and a free agent), Koji Uehara is almost 42 (and also a free agent), Brad Ziegler is a free agent, and Carson Smith is coming off elbow surgery.

The one area of the team where all of the spots appear to be filled is the starting rotation. And yet, it’s a staff that, like the Kung Fu Panda at a buffet table, leaves you wanting more. Consider:

1. 27-year old Rick Porcello stepped forward as the ace of the staff, leading the AL in wins and placing himself in the Cy Young conversation before surrendering three home runs in 4 and 1/3 innings of a savage beating in Game 1 of the ALDS in Cleveland.
2. David Price rebounded from an uninspiring start (6.75 ERA through seven starts) to put up solid #2 starter numbers (a 13–8, 3.39 mark) the rest of the way, before similarly getting mauled by Cleveland. The $217 million man’s resume as a playoff starter now stands at 0–8 with a 5.74 ERA.
3. (All-Star!) Knuckleballer Steven Wright posted 13 wins and a 2.67 ERA in his first 19 starts but was shut down for part of August, all of September and the postseason.
4. Eduardo Rodriguez showed why he’s the X-factor of the staff. The lefty carried just 21 Major League starts into 2016 and was perhaps unfairly looked upon to deliver top-of-the-rotation production behind David Price in just his second big league campaign. Rodriguez injured his knee during Spring Training but was outstanding following a July 16th return from Pawtucket, posting a 3.24 ERA and striking out more than a batter an inning across 14 starts.
5. Drew Pomeranz was acquired from the Padres for prized prospect Anderson Espinoza and while he looked competent in the AL East, he failed to get deep into games with consistency (his carefully monitored 170 and 2/3 innings were a career high).
6. Clay Buchholz was a sack of shit.

If depth is your concern, the move here would be to acquire another effective veteran arm that can eat innings, keeping Wright and/or Pomeranz available as back-end/swing guys who can hold a rotation spot in the case of injury. Porcello and Price, for better or for worse, are your top guys, and to use a wrestling term, it’s time to give the 23-year old Rodriguez a push.

So of course, on November 3rd, the Red Sox announced Buchholz, a guy who is neither effective nor has the ability to eat innings, would return in 2017, the team picking up his $13.5 million option.

I haven’t hidden my disdain for Buchholz in the past — in fact, we had this same conversation last year when the Red Sox picked up his option for 2016. And yet, here we are.

Going back to 2011 — that’s six years of data — he’s averaged just 21 starts per season and has an ERA north of four. The pattern used to be that he was either hurt or pitching terribly, not both in the same year, but the last three years have seen a unique confluence of underperformance and unreliability: a 23–28 record, 4.60 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in just 67 games started.

Last year, Buchholz supporters used the word “value” to justify the Sox bringing him back for 2016. What’s the word now? The free agent market for starting pitching is remarkably thin, and yet, the guy you’re bringing back has totaled 1.3 WAR over the last three seasons (that’s cumulative, not an average) when he wasn’t sitting on the disabled list as guys like Roenis Elias, Henry Owens, Rubby De La Rosa and Brandon Workman tossed beach balls in the direction of the opposition.

“Oh, but he was an All-Star in 2013 — he helped them win a World Series!”

Here’s how much Buchholz mattered to the success of that team. He spent two months on the shelf. Between June 9th (the day he left) and September 10th (when he returned), the Red Sox — without Buchholz — padded their lead in the division from 1.5 games to 8.5 games. In the postseason, he made four starts, averaging barely over five innings a turn and posting a 4.35 ERA without winning a single decision.

I’ll actually credit Buchholz for making quality starts in six of his last eight trips to the hill during the 2016 regular season. But who sprinkled the cuckoo dust on John Farrell’s cereal to make him put Buchholz ahead of Rodriguez as the No Hope starter for Game 3 of the ALDS, down 0–2, where the righty proceeded to soil himself before hitting the showers after four innings?

Clay Buchholz is who we thought he was. And we let him off the hook. Again. And now he’s back. Again.

It didn’t have to be this way. The Red Sox had a chance, have had multiple chances, to wash their hands of him. They haven’t. The result has been possibly the longest, most powerful headache I’ve ever had as a baseball fan.

In the coming weeks, the Hot Stove will light the spirit of baseball fans trapped in daylight saving time for the foreseeable future. We’ll comb our Twitter feeds in the twilight for the latest rumors and gather with friends in cozy pubs to try and figure out how the Sox might be able to squeak past the Indians next October.

And I’ll be here, with my never-ending Clay Buchholz migraine. I can only hope 2017 is the last ride.

This post was originally published to macandgu.com on November 10, 2016.