2/10/14: Will the Red Sox Have a World Series Hangover?
Do World Series hangovers exist?
It’s a mixed bag. In the Wild Card era, seven of 18 World Series winners missed the postseason the next year. Only two teams have repeated as champions: the 1999 and 2000 New York Yankees. That leaves nine other teams that finished somewhere in between the ultimate goal and miserable failure.
The recipe for World Series success can be modified but requires a few essential ingredients: talent, health, chemistry and luck. The 2013 Boston Red Sox had all of the above; a year later, much of the talent remains. The other ingredients are the reason the games will be played in 2014.
As our history teachers told us, we must use the lessons of the past to prepare for the future. Let’s take a look back at the successors to the last two Boston World Series champs:
2005
The 2005 Sox were prime candidates for a hangover. The 2004 postseason, particularly the “all hands on deck” ALCS against the Yankees, seriously taxed the pitching staff. General manager Theo Epstein let veterans Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe walk, while Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke remained and scuffled — both missed significant time with injuries.
Epstein brought in reinforcements with Matt Clement (a 2005 All-Star) and David Wells. The two combined for 28 wins, but the absence of Martinez and Schilling at the front of the rotation was noticeable. Epstein came up empty on reclamation projects Wade Miller and Matt Mantei. Without Foulke, Mike Timlin wound up closing games, and bullpen mate Alan Embree ran out of gas and found himself unceremoniously dumped in August.
As with Embree, Epstein entered the year hoping second baseman Mark Bellhorn would be capable of reprising his valuable role. Bellhorn hit .216 and his August release led to a trade for Tony Graffanino, while Kevin Millar’s continued decline resulted in at-bats for 36-year-old John Olerud.
Then there was Edgar Renteria, the classic punching bag of sports radio callers, who “couldn’t hack it in Boston.” A toolsy shortstop who’d found success in Florida and St. Louis, Renteria hauled in a four-year, $40 million contract, had a down year with the Sox and was shipped out of town before Christmas 2005.
Almost despite themselves, the Sox won 95 games and tied for the AL East lead with the Yankees courtesy of monster campaigns from Johnny Damon, David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez and Jason Varitek. But the Yankees won the season series; the Sox were assigned the Wild Card and ran into the eventual World Series champion Chicago White Sox in the ALDS.
2008
The 2007 Sox followed a script similar to 2004, sweeping the World Series after a classic ALCS. Curt Schilling retired but with younger stars (Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis) at key positions, the 2008 edition didn’t appear as susceptible as the 2005 squad.
It was still a mess. An out-of-shape Beckett and not-ready-for-prime-time Clay Buchholz ceded nine starts to rookie Justin Masterson, eight to Paul Byrd, and seven to pre-Biogenesis Bartolo Colon before he broke down, as pre-Biogenesis Bartolo Colon was wont to do. Julio Lugo continued to emulate Jose Offerman while Alex Cora and Jed Lowrie were pressed into action at shortstop.
As in 2005, veterans ran out of gas. The popular Mike Lowell re-signed for three years and $37.5 million but was hobbled by a torn labrum in his hip, eventually missing the ALCS. Varitek’s OBP dropped 54 points, and 42-year-old Timlin was finally finished. Ortiz wasn’t out of gas yet, but he wasn’t the same Papi with a nagging wrist injury. And then there was Manny, traded in a cloud of dust for Jason Bay.
But once again, the Sox were good for 95 wins. Credit manager Terry Francona for keeping it together. The 2008 Sox battled all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS against Tampa Bay before finally succumbing. The stars just didn’t line up like the previous year, one full of glory and bravado and players doing postgame jigs on the outfield grass with beer boxes on their heads.
This Year’s Model
So what have we learned?
Health will be a major factor. Both the 2005 and 2008 editions won 95 games. But injuries in key spots robbed them of a chance to repeat. A healthy Lowell might have put the 2008 Sox over the top. The 2014 Sox also happen to employ a fan-favorite corner infielder with a bad hip: Mike Napoli, who just re-signed for two years and $32 million.
An overworked closer (Koji Uehara, meet Keith Foulke) can be a problem. Uehara has been money since arriving in the States and was superhuman last year with a 1.09 ERA and 10:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. But counting the postseason, he made 83 appearances at age 38. GM Ben Cherington’s signing of Edward Mujica will be essential to bullpen stability. While he’s not the most dominant reliever, he’s an effective arm with closing experience who could assume the mantle if needed.
Similarly, the starters threw a lot of innings in 2013 and there is talk of a six-man rotation to begin the season. Will John Lackey be in the same shape as last year, or will he mirror Beckett in 2008?
And Clay Buchholz fell flat on his face in ‘08 — a cautionary tale for rookies. Even if it made sense to let Jacoby Ellsbury take seven years and $153 million from the Yankees, there will be a lot of pressure on 23-year-old Jackie Bradley in center field. Cherington made a speculative play on Grady Sizemore but otherwise hasn’t added a name outfielder to the mix. Bradley will have the keys to the car, as will infielder Xander Bogaerts, at third or shortstop pending the return of Stephen Drew.
These questions and more await the Red Sox as pitchers and catchers report on Saturday. Will David Ortiz get a contract extension? When will he finally slow down? Will success breed complacency or dysfunction? As the last toasts to 2013 are made, it’s about time to get down to business.
This post was originally published to Yahoo! Sports on February 10, 2014.
