Fantasy Premier League 20/21 | GW11 Memo

Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 11 Memo, Team Yin AubameYang

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The FPL Memo

10 min readDec 3, 2020

A steadier hand at the wheel, along with some strokes of good luck, is resulting in better decision making and an improved rank for Team Yin AubameYang.

Stick with me here because I think this memo is one of the better one’s I’ve written so far this 20/21 season.

Reflection and Personal Changes

The ups and downs of the first 10 game weeks has made me focus much more on the inner game of being a good FPL manager.

To some, this “inner game analysis” might seem overkill. But not to me.

I’m insanely competitive, so no matter how “important” something is, I want to win. That includes FPL. So I’m considering every edge and advantage I can get. And that includes taking a closer look at the mind of the manager.

Being a good FPL manager is not just about absorbing information and making data-informed picks. It’s also about keeping a calm mind and avoiding hasty, emotion-driven decisions.

This is why I find it easy to blame my daily coffee habit — 32 ounces of pure black french-pressed coffee — on my highly-reactive and emotional decision making in the first handful of game weeks. Let’s rewind.

After scoring only 31 points in the first game week (OR of 4,810,202), I abruptly activated my wild card and transferred out both Kane and Son (among other players) ahead of an equally terrible game week 2. Kane and Son hauled in GW2, with 5 goals and 4 assists combined — scoring 45 points amongst themselves vs. the 46 points my new wildcard team scored in GW2. I started GW3 with a rank of 5,132,692.

I wouldn’t hit rock bottom until GW7, with an overall rank of 5,688,832.

But for the last 3 game weeks, I’ve been bouncing back, and have overtaken nearly 2,000,000 managers to settle at a current OR of 3,882,389.

I can only hope the good times keep rolling. I expect they will now that I’ve taken steps to improve the important tool in any FPL managers toolbox: the mind.

Changes I’ve implemented:

No more coffee. I’ve switched entirely to matcha to help avoid the cracked-out, reactive patterns I find so easy to fall into while drinking coffee. Maybe you handle java just fine. I don’t. It makes me hyper-reactive and manic, so I’ve eliminated it from my diet.
Exercise. I’ve always been in good shape, but recently I’ve ramped up my routine. I’m running 1 or 2 miles everyday along with daily calisthenics, body weight exercises, kettle bell exercises, and soccer.
Meditation. I’m not doing this every day yet, but several times a week I’m finding 10 minutes to sit quietly and count my breath with an empty mind. Sounds strange but it seems to help refresh my mind, emotions, and slows down my reactive decision making.
Diet. In addition to eliminating coffee, I’ve also started limiting alcohol to 1–2 nights a week, and reducing my intake of two other delicious vices: ice cream and flour. I’m not perfect with this, but I’ve managed to keep my diet free of these personal vices for at least 5 days out of 7.
Deleted Twitter from phone. I have an addictive personality, which is great if I’m focused on the right things. Having Twitter on my phone makes it far too easy for me to spend valuable time scrolling, and losing myself in other people’s opinions about FPL outcomes. I still get sucked into Twitter on desktop, but this bad habit is not nearly as bad as it used to be now that I’ve deleted the phone app.

I could easily have a bad game week in GW11, but I hope some readers will be inspired to think about changing their mind just as much as they think about changing their lineup.

Let’s proceed to a review of GW10:

GW10 Review

71 points overall for a GW rank of 112,041, and a rise to an OR of 3,882,389.

Bruno Fernandes(C) produced for the third week in a row against Southampton, grabbing a goal and an assist to bring his tally up to 4 goals and 2 assists in his last 3. It’ll now cost you 10.9 to bring in the Manchester United midfielder, as hundreds of thousands of managers who missed out on his returns in previous weeks look to transfer him in. As a Bruno and Manchester United fan, I’m excited about the momentum building for this team. The come-from-behind win against Southampton will give them confidence but their midweek Champion’s League loss to PSG might take some of that confidence back. My opinion? I think United will be pissed off and looking for redemption against West Ham. But I’m biased. Bruno played 90 minutes again, but that’s nothing new for him to play 90 midweek and play 90 on the weekend. The man is hungry.

Son and Kane disappointed in a draw against Chelsea, but it should be said that a conservative approach seemed to be all apart of the game plan against the Blues. Chelsea are top of the charts for goals scored — tied with Liverpool — with 22 in EPL competitions, and so it took a concentrated defensive effort to keep them out of the net. Spurs are also a goalscoring threat with 21, and have even given up one less goal on the season, but Chelsea seemed the most likely team to score in this match, with an xG of 1.0 vs. Spurs xG of 0.2. Looking at the offensive production through another lens, Chelsea had 20 shot-creation-actions in the game (SCA) vs. a Spurs SCA of only 8. Looking forward to an anemic Arsenal in GW11, I think we’ll see some more potency going forward from Spurs. Kane is an injury concern, according to the FPL app, but I think he’ll start.

Bamford blanked again, and the question is “how did this man not score?” In the past two matches Bamford has boasted an xG of 1.2 and 1.1, respectively, and 11 shots with 3 on target. But zero goals. I’m hoping he’ll turn it around against Chelsea, but that’s sure to be a tough match for Leeds. Chelsea are coming off a confidence-boosting 4–0 win midweek against Champions League opponent Sevilla. But I’m hesitant to bet against Leeds. They always seem to bring the heat, or at least try very hard to bring the heat.

Robertson’s 2 pointer could have EASILY ended in a 12 pointer, had it not been for a slightly offsides Mané and a penalty conceded in extra time. Frustrating, but not discouraging. Robertson is an injury worry at the moment, adding to Liverpool injury woes. Wolves are up next, and are a threat against any defense in the league. Allison is out, but Liverpool seem to have finally found a decent replacement keeper in Kelleher, who made some fine saves in a 1–0 win against Ajax this week.

The Walker transfer replacement for Digne worked out beautifully, with the Manchester City registering an assist in open play from a throw in, and City grabbing only their 3rd clean sheet of the campaign. City have Fulham up next, a team that has surged in the past couple of game weeks; winning against Leicester last week and scoring 2 in a 2–3 loss to Everton. They’ve scored 6 in the last 4 games vs. 3 goals in the previous 4 games. But despite Fulham’s new form, I think City will handle them easily.

Grealish was a real menace against West Ham — grabbing a goal and max bonus — and with another Ollie Watkins penalty miss, owners will hope that Jack will be stepping up to take the next Aston Villa penalty — assuming Barkley isn’t on the pitch. It won’t happen this week against Newcastle, however, as the match has been postponed.

Podence proved his value with a goal and 2 bonus points against Arsenal. He was due a goal this week after blanking against Southampton, despite 4 shots and 2 on target. Podence now finds his place in the “Top 10 Most Valuable Midfielders”, available at the end of this document. Podence and Wolves will be without Jiminez, who is out with a head injury, when they take on Jota and Liverpool this weekend.

Barnes didn’t get the start, but got the only Leicester goal against Fulham. Fulham surprised everyone by beating the Foxes 2–1. Leicester have Sheffield up next, a team struggling to score goals. I have a feeling Barnes will get the start.

Zouma got his cleansheet, but may struggle to get another one against Leeds this weekend. Still, the big man is a big threat on corners and Bamford is struggling to find the net despite plenty of chances, so Zouma has a shot at a cleansheet and offensive return.

Fabianski registered 5 saves against Aston Villa, but was beaten by a terrific Jack Grealish strike to remove his cleansheet and chance for a bonus. Manchester United is up next, and I’ll expect goals from them, so I’m definitely lacking confidence in a Fabianski clean sheet.

GW11 Team Selection

✅ Free Hit activated!

With Grealish out this week due to a postponed match with Newcastle, Fabianski taking on United, Robertson an injury concern against Wolves, and me sitting here feeling concerned that I won’t own DeBruyne against Fulham, I’ve decided to activate my free hit.

This team is subject to change, but at the moment I’m thinking:

Managers will likely be running from Son and Kane to De Bruyne, Fernandes, Werner, and DCL due to last week’s performance against Chelsea and an upcoming clash against Arsenal, but I think there is plenty of reason to keep the Spurs pair. Sure, the FPL app makes the upcoming fixtures look scary. But they really aren’t — what with injuries and team form to consider.

Arsenal doesn’t bother me. Neither does CP. Liverpool is struggling with defensive injuries. And Leicester was just beaten by Fulham. No reason to think Kane and Son can’t haul here. Plenty of reason to expect them to haul, actually, with their propensity for catching teams out on the counter. And looking beyond GW15, there are some decent fixtures for Spurs.

De Bruyne, Marhez, and Walker were all inactive on Tuesday in the Champions League, so I’ll expect them to start this weekend. Fulham does look improved, but I think City will be too much for them.

Schmeichel against Sheffield is a good matchup. Leicester will be looking to bounce back against a Sheffield team who hasn’t figured out how to score yet. They’ve only scored 4 this season, and Schmeichel has saved 73% of all shots on target this season. 4th best goal keeping in the league.

Che Adams has been in excellent form, and will be taking on Brighton, a team who has given up 16, and a keeper with the worst save percentage in the league at 50%.

Fernandes will do what Fernandes does. He’ll have a tough test against West Ham and Fabianski, and I’ll be nervously watching the lineup Saturday after 90 minutes against PSG on Wednesday, but I’ll expect Fernandes to start and return. The man just loves to win and score.

De Bruyne will most likely get the armband against Fulham. With Fernandes playing backup.

Now for some statistics.

Value Analysis

Value does not necessarily mean the asset will continue producing in the future. It’s simply another way to look at which players have performed best in the past 10 game weeks. It’s not always obvious.

For example, you might not have realized that a 5.5 Defender would be the highest returning asset in the game. Zouma has return 59 points on his cost of 5.5. Very, very impressive. Now pretend for a moment that KDB has returned 117 points on his 11.7 cost at this point in the season.

The purpose of the value analysis is to help bring focus to the returns brought by all positions, and to help avoid the trap of getting a budget defense and spending all your cash in the midfield and forward lines.