Kemba Walker and a New Approach
One year on from one of the most disappointing seasons in recent NBA history, the Boston Celtics sit on top of the NBA through eleven games. What’s changed?
Though Boston Celtics general manager Danny Ainge did an admirable job filling out the team’s roster following the departures of all-stars Kyrie Irving and Al Horford, the safe money seemed to be on the Celtics falling further from the championship contention that’s seemed so certain just 12 months ago.
Those inclined to wish ill upon the men in green have been sorely disappointed thus far. Victory over the Washington Wizards on Wednesday night kept the Celtics in sole possession of the league’s best record (9–1), net-rating (plus 9.1) and offensive-rating (113.8).
The name Kyrie Irving has officially been erased from the City’s collective memory. Needless to say, Irving will not have his likeness honored in the form of a statue any time soon in Boston. Even one in possession the most retarded emotional intelligence can sense the shift in Celtics’ chemistry, and it’s reflected in the product on the court. Kemba Walker, signed in free-agency for a cold 141 million-dollars over the next four years, is Irving’s antithesis.
While the pivot from sullen to smile at the point guard position helps to explain some of how the Celtics have transformed this season, it’s only part of the story. The Celtics approach to offense in 2018–19 is a major departure for coach Brad Stevens.
Kemba Walker and the Power of Penetration
Firstly, Walker is playing like a fringe MVP candidate.
The former Charlotte Hornet is averaging 25.0 points per-game on 60.7 percent true-shooting, and is reaping all the benefits of a better teammates. Walker has had hot starts and stretches before, but the sheer weight of the load the diminutive guard was shouldering ensured they were always ephemeral.
Walker is succeeding in a way that feels very sustainable in many regards.
The Celtics struggled to hit their ceiling in many facets of offense last season, but none more so than attacking the basket and generating easy buckets. Kemba has been key in igniting change. In 2018–19, Boston ranked 26th in the league in drives-per-game (38.4). That number has risen to 49.6 drives per-game, the 4th highest mark in the league. Looking at tracking data over the last five years, that’s quite a development.
The Celtics determination to get to the rack has resulted in a dramatic increase in free-throw attempts, from dead-last in 2018–19 (19.3 per-100 possessions) to 11th this year (24.4).
The team is also indulging in the NBA’s bread-and-butter play, the pick-and-roll, to a degree unseen in years past. The Celtics haven't played a lot of pick-and-roll basketball under Stevens:
Walker, one of the most prolific pick-and-roll guards in league, has been unleashed, blowing by picks into a steady diet of threes, free-throws and plays for his teammates:
Were his current three-point attempt rate (9.9 per-game) to hold up, Walker would join Steph Curry and James Harden as the only players as prolific over an entire season.
While much has been said of the team’s improved ball-movement, it’s not quite reflected in the tracking data. Per NBA stats and info, the Celtics made 296.5 passes per-game last season. This year, that number has dropped to 279.7 per-game. While the sample-size is small, there’s not much to suggest the team is passing more.
However, players are clearly making more decisive decisions, something made infinitely easier by Walker and others consistently beating their men and creating an advantage.
Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are murdering teams on both ends every time they suit up. The Celtics have outscored teams by 22.5 points per-100-possessions in the 169 minutes the young wings have shared the court.
Brown has learned how to dribble, and he’s attacking the rim with fluidity and purpose. Watch him put the moves on Trey Lyles before freezing LaMarcus Aldridge with the stutter-step:
Brown, the 3rd pick in the 2016 NBA draft, is putting up career-highs across the board, including points (20.1), True-shooting percentage (60.1%) and free-throw rate (34.3%). Brown could earn his first all-star berth if the Celtics success continues.
Tatum might not be shooting the ball very well overall, but he has refined his shot selection overall, and is shooting threes well at volume (6.2 attempts per-game at 40.3%). More encouragingly, Tatum has looked far more engaged on the defensive end, demonstrating impressive awareness at times:
Tatum’s struggles with finishing and efficiency are not to be dismissed but, much like Marcus Smart early in his career, it’s encouraging that his impact is showing up on both ends regardless. Tatum leads the starters in net-rating (plus 17.4), and the team is 27.4 points better with him on the floor versus off.
Gordon Hayward’s injury was a blow. Hayward was averaging 18.9 points on 63.8 true-shooting to start the season before going down with a broken left hand that should have him out at least another four weeks. Hayward is probably the Celtics’ best passer, and seemed to be regaining the type of form that earned him and all-star selection back in 2017.
Overall, a combination of Stevens changing his approach, Kemba and the young guys has modernized a Boston offense that was painful to watch when Kyrie was mesmerizing folk one-on-one. Weaknesses have been turned into strengths. Kemba is great, and Tatum and Brown could finally be at the tail-ends of their growing pains. If Smart, Daniel Theis and the rest can continue to fill in the gaps in terms of big defense, the team should continue to churn out wins.
Whether or not the team is truly a contender is a question to be revisited at a later date.
All stats courtesy of NBA stats and info and the good folk over at basketball-reference.
