LA Clippers: The Case for Trading Lou Williams
Lou Williams is a fan favorite who helped keep the team afloat between Lob City and the 213. But will the best version of the 2019–20 squad include him in the playoffs?
By Paul Headley (@paulheadleyNBA on Twitter)
One of the more common refrains one might see on NBA Twitter involves buckets. More specifically, the getting of buckets. Well: Lou Williams gets buckets.
Since joining the Clippers at the beginning of the 2017–18 season, Williams has averaged 25.8 points per-36 minutes on just 19.4 shots, to go along with 6.4 assists. Williams is the most prolific bench-scorer in league history with 13,305 points to his name despite starting just 110 of 936 career games to date.
Williams is still an enormously entertaining player to watch:
Williams was a monster in the clutch last year, regularly closing out games by pick-and-rolling opposing teams to death with fellow bench-monster Montrezl Harrell. Sweet-Lou put up 106 points in 111 clutch minutes, one of the key reasons the Clippers were able to outperform their expected win/loss record (43) by 5 games.
Still, it’s hard for me to shift this nagging feeling that the best version of the 2019–20 LA Clippers will conclude without the diminutive guard.
The Case
Williams is an all-NBA awful defender who will get hunted down in the playoffs by miss-match seeking lions eager to rip out a fresh pair of lungs. His minus 3.54 defensive real plus-minus (DRPM) in 2018–19 was dead last among 109 ranked shooting guards, and a bottom five number among guards overall. For all his offensive wizardry, Williams barely contributes in a positive fashion quarter-to-quarter because he’s such a liability on the other end.
Williams’ crunch-time brilliance is now superfluous to the team’s needs. In fact, it’s hard to see Williams even seeing the floor in clutch situations. Beverley is a much better defender and catch-and-shoot player. Landry Shamet is an infinitely better shooter who will torture teams trying to track him off-ball as Kawhi or George go to work on the strong-side.
While Williams might have been great in the clutch last year, Kawhi Leonard was the very best, in both the regular season and the playoffs. Williams is Westbrookian off-ball, unlikely to contribute with sharp cuts or screen-setting.
Even when he has the ball, Williams’ efficiency drops off dramatically in the postseason. He shoots at an inferior clip from the field, and doesn’t get to the free-throw line at the same rate as he does in the regular season. The result is a brutal career playoff true-shooting percentage of 49.0 percent, a dramatic dip from his regular season mark of 55.0 percent.
It’s clear: Lou would help this team during the 82 games title-contenders must slog through before it’s time to get serious. But, it’s also true that he’ll hurt the team on defense when the games really matter, and his skill-set just isn’t bringing as much value on offense next to two megastars as it did last season.
While Lou’s passing might be an underrated skill, and one of the Clippers potential weaknesses might be elite play-making, it’s clear a move can be made without much reticence.
So, what’s the trade?
The Clippers need big-man depth, but not in the mold of the currently rostered players. Ivica Zubac is too paint bound. Harrell is too small, and a defensive liability in certain match-ups.
Should the Raptors decide to blow things up, Serge Ibaka is a guy I like on the Clippers roster. He can play the four next to Zubac in line-ups matching up with opposition size, and he can move to the five in small-ball units that could be devastating. Think, Beverley-Shamet-Kawhi-George-Ibaka. My god.
Ibaka might be a streaky shooter from deep, but teams at least respect him out there. His presence gives both Kawhi and George the ability to operate unimpeded near the basket in a way rim-runners like Zubac and Harrell cannot. While Ibaka might not be the rim-protector he once was, he’s still a capable interior defender who can operate in a switchy scheme custom built for postseason success.
Williams and the Clippers’ 2020 first-round pick (say, top 20 protected) is a deal that makes sense for both sides. Ibaka is on an expiring contract, and hardly figures into the Raptors’ long-term plans. The Clippers can cobble together enough salary to match Ibaka’s 23.2 million due this year by using Williams’ number, Mo Harkless and some filler available when summer signings are eligible to be traded on December 25th.
The Clippers aren’t taking on any long-term money, and even though they’re losing yet another pick, they still have a bunch of young, recent draft picks on cheap contracts moving forward.
As well as the pick, the Raptors gain Williams, who still has value. He’s on a very friendly contract (8 million per-year for this up-coming season and the next), and could be flipped again for something from a team in dire need of scoring (such as the Orlando Magic).
Like it or not, as Zach Lowe has said on his podcast several times, the Clippers are already on the clock with Kawhi and George. If things go south in year one, the chatter could be fierce by next summer. Ibaka increases the Clippers’ title hopes this year by a significant margin by turning a potential weakness (big man play) into a potential strength.
Terrance Mann has looked great running the point since Summer League, and I’d project him to defend better in the regular season and the postseason than Williams anyway. Traditional point-guard play figures to be less important on a team with two of the best high-usage wings in the game.
Sure, the Clippers would really feel Lou’s absence in a nightmarish scenario in which both Kawhi and George go down with injury at the same time, but the upside is tantalizing should a move like this* materialize.
*Another guy who fascinates me to this end is the Pelicans’ Derrick Favors (still odd to type). But that’s a another conversation for a different time.
Anyway, enough jabbering about what-ifs. Let’s get the season underway.
All stats per NBA stats and info and basketball-reference.
