NBA: Eastern Conference Predictions
Three predictions for the NBA’s little brother conference.
By Paul Headley (@paulheadleyNBA on Twitter).
The NBA off-season is almost over. Mercifully. Though we’ve ostensibly spent an entire summer debating, ranking and arguing about the NBA, it still feels like there’s very little we know, and a lot more we don’t. Especially in the “sunset” conference, as the Washington Post’s Ben Golliver likes to call it.
Here are some facts (that will probably be declared fiction before Christmas):
The Eastern conference is top-heavy, and Milwaukee and Philadelphia are powerhouses. The Celtics, Nets, Pacers, Raptors and Heat are all chasing the third seed. Giannis Antetokounmpo is rightly favored to repeat as MVP. The Hornets should be handing out opium shakes to fans before the first quarter of every home game to numb the pain in advance.
That’s about it.
Though opening night is just days away, the opportunity is still there for some foolish predictions. Let’s start with the east.
The Orlando Magic Will Trade for Bradley Beal (maybe).
Bradley Beal is the most coveted player NBA teams reasonably feel like they have a shot at this season. The 2020 free agency class is weak, and most of the big name restricted free agents seem unlikely to be pried away. Beal was a stud after John Wall went down for the season, averaging roughly 27/6/5 on 48/36/82 shooting splits.
Here’s the REAL killer, though. In those 46 games Wall missed, the team posted a 113.6 offensive-rating in 1748 minutes, a number worthy of a star-level guard no matter what his help. The Wizard’s top-5 players in minutes played during that span? Beal, Tomas Satoransky, Trevor Ariza, Jeff Green and Thomas Bryant.
A number of teams have been floated as potential trade destinations for Beal, with the Nuggets to the Pelicans held up as favorites, should the Wizards stop playing possum and officially put him on the market.
The Orlando Magic are my sleeper pick. Whether you believe the Magic’s defensive clamp-down in the 2nd half of last season was real or not is the deciding factor here in whether it would be worth it. Steve Clifford’s squad ranked 3rd in defensive-rating from January 1st at a robust 106.6, behind only the Bucks and Jazz over that period.
The Magic desperately need elite half-court creation to buoy an offense that has languished near the bottom of the league every season since Dwight Howard departed for the Lakers in 2012.
Last year, Beal finished in the 75th percentile operating as the pick-and-roll handler, and the 61st percentile scoring in isolation. The Magic were futile trying to generate buckets in either play-type. Beal clearly enjoys being the focal point of a team’s offense, and he’s competent enough defensively to work just fine in Steve Clifford’s system.
Assuming Beal would be happy to re-sign when his current contract expires in the summer of 2020–21, he could be the catalyst to put the Magic over the proverbial hump and into contention for the 3rd seed in the east over the next few seasons.
Only one question remains: what’s the deal?
The Wizards would be getting a young player in Gordon they could sell as a future star and highlight-reel generator, and those picks are far enough out that they could end up being really valuable should the Magic regress back to incompetence.
Getting a player of Beal’s quality without giving up a plus prospect in addition to multiple picks seems unlikely. It would be much more tantalizing for the Magic to part with Nikola Vucevic, but he doesn’t make as much sense for the Wizards unless they’re clinging on to hope that mediocrity can be restored upon John Wall’s return.
Beal would more than fill Vuc’s slot as the fulcrum of the offense, and the latter’s departure would open up time for what really tantalizes me about the Magic in this scenario: small-ball line-ups with Gordon at the five.
Should the Magic have to lose Gordon, though, so be it.
Gordon was a big part of the Magic’s defensive identity in 2018–19, but the the difference Beal would make on offense would negate it, massively, in the aggregate. It’s what I want to happen, so let’s will it into existence.
The Knicks Will Win Less Than Twenty-Five Games
The Knicks’ projected line-up one through three is Dennis Smith Jr, RJ Barret and Kevin Knox:
Excuse my language, but that is fucking dreadful. Any notion the Knicks are a playoff sleeper should be slapped out of the speaker post-haste.
The two worst offensive-ratings in the league last year (minimum 28 minutes per-game, 40 games) belonged to Knox (101.4) and Smith (102.4). The fourth worst defensive rating in the league with the same games/minutes threshold belonged to Knox at 115.1. Barret, the Knicks’ selection with the third pick of the 2019 draft, shot 34 percent from the field, 24 percent from 3 and 60 percent from the line in summer league.
I hear you. Frank Ntilikina looked fine during the FIBA world cup. Julius Randle is a talented scorer. Mitchell Robinson has a lot of defensive upside. Taj Gibson is tougher than a coffin nail. Marcus Morris, too. Bobby Portis might not be terrible.
But, you can’t win games in the NBA with a trio of players expected to be league-worst awful at the most important positions of modern basketball, especially when every other competent guy on your roster plays essentially the same position.
The Knicks’ best use of their current roster: Play those young guys as much as humanly possible. Lose games. Let Randle, Morris, Taj and let every other veteran who doesn’t make sense for the future go for assets.
ALSO: Keep telling every one you didn’t really want Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Kristaps Porzingis anyway. Skanks.
Pascal Siakiam: Third Best Player in the Conference
I’m sneaking two predictions into one. Siakam will ascend to to-top-three status in the conference, and the Raptors will win fifty games and snare the third seed.
Firstly, Siakam was already a top-10 player in the east last season. His statistical profile was absurd, on both sides of the ball. Siakam finished top-10 among eastern conference players in ESPN’s Real Plus Minus (RPM) at plus 3.80.
His playtype profile from 2108–19, courtesy of Synergy Sports, is borderline arousing:
That’s average to excellent in every category with sufficient possessions to matter. Defensively, the Raptors suffocated opponents at league-best levels when Siakam played (104.2 per-100 possessions).
Some might attribute Sikam’s efficiency to the presence of superstar teammates in Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry, but he was every bit as productive when those pair of all stars sat:
While Siakam is older than you’d think (26 in April next year), he only started playing basketball when he was 15, and has made so many strides year-to-year that it’s reasonable to expect a few more leaps.
Siakam’s primary competition for that 3rd spot (guys like Jimmy Butler, Kemba Walker, Kyrie Irving, Blake Griffin and Beal) all have age-decline and health issues. While it’s by no means certain, it’s wholly possible.
As for the Raptors as a whole, I’m baffled by some of the prevailing media narratives. Westgate currently has the #WeTheNorth over/under set at 46, and I am smashing that over (at least a dollar has been parted with).
Here’s the Raptors’ projected depth chart (courtesy of ESPN):
Point Guard: Kyle Lowry-Fred VanVleet
Shooting Guard: Norman Powell-VanVleet-Pat McCaw
Small Forward: OG Anunoby-Stanley Johnson
Power Forward: Siakiam-Serge Ibaka- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
Center: Marc Gasol-Serge Ibaka
It’s a squad not unlike the 2006 Phoenix Suns. The Suns lost all-star Amar’e Stoudemire for all but three games of that season, but still churned out 54 wins and a second MVP for Steve Nash. It’s not an apples to apples comparison, but there are parallels. Chemistry, coaching, continuity, identity, fit, versatility and talent win games in the NBA, and the Raptors are still loaded in all seven areas.
Losing a player like Kawhi Leonard hurts. Danny Green, too. But the Raptors are too good to fall off by 23 wins.
If you liked this article and wish to see more of my work, I’d appreciate a follow here on medium. -Paul-
