Black Swans & Gray Rhinos Matter To Rapid Climate Action
Risks come in various types, but long-tailed risks matter for rapid delivery of low-carbon solutions
Black swans and gray rhinos are both terms used to describe high-impact risks that would have a significant impact on individuals, organizations, projects, and societies. The term black swan was popularized by Nassim Taleb to describe rare and unpredictable events that have a major impact. In contrast, the term gray rhino was introduced by Michele Wucker to describe highly probable, high-impact events that are ignored until they become an immediate threat.
Earlier this year I had the opportunity to ask Bent Flyvbjerg, (Linkedin, Twitter) economic geographer, first BT chair of major programs in the Said School of Business at Oxford, VKR professor at the IT University of Copenhagen, Danish knight, and co-author with Dan Gardner (LinkedIn) of the almost-released book How Big Things Get Done why he leans into black swans instead of gray rhinos in his research. After reading a pre-release version of his book in preparation for the discussion, it seemed that his research had shown that projects being over budget, behind schedule, and not delivering promised benefits was a gray rhino, not a black swan situation. After all, in his database of 16,000 carefully vetted…
