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Broken Models, Broken Promises: The Hydrogen Electrolyzer Cost Debacle

How historical industrial economics were replaced by policy-driven wishful thinking and systematic forecasting errors

Recently, I published a summary and expansion of critiques by Visa Siekkinen, an energy transition researcher now with Häme University of Applied Sciences in Finland, and Andrew Fletcher, Adjunct Industry Research Fellow at Griffith University in Australia, on hydrogen electrolyzer system capital expense estimates. Projections by organizations like IRENA, IEA, LUT, BNEF, and Europe’s industry association Hydrogen Council from five years ago were far too low initially, they have crept up annually, yet the projections are still far too low.

Someone tried to defend these organizations for these actually quite terrible estimates, claiming that electrolysis systems weren’t well understood and there weren’t good costs available in 2020, but the estimates and projections are indefensible. Let’s step through this.

The first industrial-scale alkaline electrolyzer was manufactured in 1869, marking the beginning of large-scale hydrogen production using electrolysis. These early systems, developed primarily for chemical and industrial applications, relied on liquid electrolyte solutions and…