Low-Range EVs: A Vehicle in Line With Consumer Habits
How Close Are We To a Tipping Point?
There’s a future in which the world doesn’t compare electric vehicles (EVs) to gasoline-powered cars. The two obviously share a common goal, as they both move people and things from A to B, but that does not warrant a complete apples-to-apples comparison. Over the past decade, this comparison has challenged EV manufacturers to design the perfect battery chemistry and internal electronic efficiencies in order to compete with gasoline-car driving distance capabilities. However, daily averages of consumer driving distances are closer aligned with electric vehicles charging every day at home than gasoline cars heading to a station every week. This comparison has hindered the proliferation of cheap, low-range electric vehicles. However, a future of low range electric vehicles is soon to arrive and will bring about the most dramatic emissions reductions in the consumer transportation sector.
Comparing EVs with Gasoline Cars Lacks Point of View
The issue with comparing electric vehicles with gasoline cars is that it focuses too much on the idea of direct substitution of technologies and ignores the relevant landscape of other innovations. Focusing on commuter cars and trucks (ie. the easiest to electrify), it is unfair and unreasonable to compare electric vehicles and gasoline cars with the same metrics simply because they share a common goal. This is akin to comparing tennis shoes and high heels with “ability to wear to a dinner” or “how fast you can run in them”. They may share a common goal of supporting your feet, but they cannot be compared with many similar metrics. Heels are not a direct technological substitute for tennis shoes, rather they serve a sub-goal of fashion and appearance. The same goes for electric vehicles serving a sub-goal of being environmentally cleaner.
Electric vehicles and gasoline cars are often compared with metrics such as charging time, distance before the next fill up/ charge, and availability of refilling/ charging stations. EV opponents cite longer driving distances, faster refill times, and a huge network of gas stations as reasons why gasoline cars will reign superior. These comparisons have pitted electric vehicles in a matchup on gasoline car’s home turf, but the very notion of necessitating electric vehicles to beat gasoline cars on these metrics is the issue. They are different technologies surrounded by a myriad of different innovations like the electrical grid connected to your house. Rather, a better comparison exists for electric vehicles that show why they are the future and what we can learn from such an analysis.
A Better Comparison
It can be argued electric vehicles are closer on the technological family tree to phones than to traditional cars with internal combustion engines (ICEs). Specifically, their ability to charge at home overnight. If you want to understand why gasoline cars need to last 400+ miles, think about when the last time you filled up at home was. At home overnight charging of electric vehicles decreases the need for long-range batteries because users can do it daily, with significantly more ease and convenience than heading to a gas station. It’s the equivalent of starting every day with a full tank no hassle required (ok maybe you have to remember to plug it in yourself).
Charging habits of electric vehicle owners also resemble that of phone users. From energy.gov:
“Because residential charging is convenient and inexpensive, most plug-in electric vehicle drivers do more than 80% of their charging at home.”
This similarity to phone charging habits presents a case for smaller EV batteries and less charging stations. How often do you charge your phone a day? The answer is likely once, overnight. Phone manufacturers know this, so they design phones with enough battery to last an average person one day (before the battery degradation we all despise sets in). Any more would be a waste of investment and design resources. Overnight charging works with phones because manufacturers know average daily usage, internal electronics efficiencies, and battery energy density. This allows them to calculate precisely how big to make their batteries.
The Case for Low Range EVs
We can actually do the same with electric vehicles — just on a much bigger scale of capacity and power. We know the average driving distance of users, internal electronic efficiencies, and battery energy density. Manufacturers will increase focus on designing low range cars for certain demographics (vans for soccer moms, trucks for farmers, etc.) with batteries that satisfy statistics such as the ones below from newsroom:
- Americans drive 29.2 miles per day, making two trips with an average total duration of 46 minutes
- Both teenagers and seniors over the age of 75 drive less than any other age group; motorists 30–49 years old drive more than any other age group.
- The average distance and time spent driving increases in relation to higher levels of education.
- Drivers who reported living “in the country” or “a small town” drive greater distances and spend a greater amount of time driving than people who described living in a “medium-sized town” or city
Home charging of electric vehicles allows manufacturers to capture the true driving habits of their customers more effectively than gasoline cars. Manufacturers will stop competing entirely for longer driving distances and focus more on how customers actually use their products. Data from Microsoft shows a distribution of miles/day for US drivers:
Judging by the data to the left, to ensure 99.9% of customer-days can be traveled on a single charge, a commuter vehicle with around a 120-mile battery capacity would suffice. The 400+ miles gasoline car proponents think they need is not necessary for commuter EVs. Smaller batteries that are tailored to customer’s driving habits will enable cheaper electric vehicles and accelerate the proliferation of environmentally cleaner cars.
“Range Anxiety”
Range anxiety is more a fear intensified by those who have an interest in ensuring the adoption of electric vehicles never happens. It is a fear exaggerated by EV opponents that is often cited as a leading reason many consumers have not gone electric. However, many EV owners report the exaggerated nature of range anxiety and that their fear dwindles after a few months. A survey done by Volvo reports:
“65% of EV drivers say they had range anxiety when they purchased their cars, but it went away after a few months”
Breaking the stigma of range anxiety must happen in order to push consumers to go electric with low range commuter EVs. This can be achieved through consumer understanding of their habits and focused marketing on the benefits of at-home charging capabilities. Comparing EVs as a direct substitute for gasoline cars has encouraged range anxiety, but comparing EV charging to phone charging will decrease it.
The Case For a Limited Charging Network
It also limits (but not eliminates) the need for both a vast network of charging stations and fast charging of your vehicle. Hopefully you get 8 hours of rest at night, and so does your car. This gives plentiful time for level 1 chargers to fill your battery for the next day’s trips.
Environmental concerns over peak hour charging (charging your car when the electric grid demand is the highest — between 4 and 6 pm) are also mitigated. Charging overnight rather than during peak demand hours takes some strain off of the grid at a critical time when many expensive pollution heavy power plants are currently needed.
A More Appropriate Analysis of The Tesla Model 3’s Success
There is a strong urge to say the market for low range EVs will never come to fruition. After all, the Tesla Model 3, at 220-310 miles per charge, has been the undeniable winner in EV sales. This may point to a bleaker fact about consumer decisions when buying a car. Vehicle purchases are often economically irrational and decisions heavily influenced by a desire to present oneself in a certain way. Over-budget cars are frequently chalked up as once-a-year aspirational purchases. The fear here is consumers will spend over budget to get double or triple the mileage on their electric vehicle — for status and to project an appearance. The human element in the car buying decision-making process certainly must be appreciated.
However, this spells no doom to low range EVs. A further look into Tesla’s Model 3 Vs. other EVs shows the value of the vehicle is not simply range, but the price per range. The low range EVs on the list to the left are nowhere near the price-per-mile of the three mid to long-range EVs at the top.
Total Sales vs Range of EVs (top) does not show a strong correlation.
Rather, a more effective comparison for EVs is Total Sales vs $/mile (bottom). There is a strong correlation between these two statistics: R-Square of .9385 excluding the orange point for the Chevy Bolt (issues with European supply due to GM sabotaging EV programs and production slowdown in the US).
An analysis of this data points to a more effective picture for the Tesla Model 3’s success. EV buyers think more rationally than just car range, rather they economically evaluate the cost per mile of the car and seem to make decisions based on that.
For low range EV proliferation to have a chance, the cost per mile must be significantly closer to $160/mile. This means for a 125 mile EV, a cost of $20,000 must be achieved to entice customers and force a market tipping point toward low range EV proliferation.
To Sum Up
Electric vehicle’s ability to charge at home has a superior advantage to gasoline cars that can only be filled at a station. Comparing both vehicles on the grounds of driving distance and recharge times lacks a vision of a future with minimal visits to charging stations. Range anxiety will be mitigated once more EV owners understand the shifting landscape of cars and their surrounding technologies.
This near future in which low-range low-cost EVs rocket in sales can only come with cheaper options. Electric vehicle manufacturers must increase focus on achieving a price-per-mile of low-range low-cost EVs closer in line with the Tesla Model 3. A market for longer range EVs will always exist, but cheaper price-per-mile low-range options will entice customers to go electric while maintaining the value of a high-end EV. Cheaper low range electric vehicles tailored to the driving habits of consumers will result in a boom of low-cost low-range EVs everyone can afford and play a large role in global emissions reductions in the consumer transportation sector.
