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Mineral Wars of the 21st Century
Geopolitical Realities Reshaping Industrial Strategies in the West
Recently, I stood — virtually — before an audience of global institutional investors, invited by Jefferies investment bank to speak alongside six other experts on the deepening geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China and their implications. Amid this intense discussion, one of the central themes was the rapid return of industrial policies to Western economies after four decades of dominance by market-driven ideologies. This represents not merely a cyclical shift but a structural response to a profound reshaping of the global economic landscape, particularly in the context of energy transition and decarbonization through the end of this century.
For years, I’ve analyzed and projected key trends in decarbonization, covering everything from renewable energy and electrification to advanced battery chemistries and the scaling of green hydrogen. Underlying these projections has always been a recognition of the necessity for a reliable supply of critical minerals. In recent years, as I’ve sharpened my analysis through a blend of technical feasibility, economic modeling, and assessments of human factors such as regulatory frameworks and geopolitical risks, one persistent risk loomed large: China’s control over critical mineral supply chains. The…
