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The End of the Semiconductor Consensus
How Tariffs, Sanctions, and Isolationism Could Redraw the Global Tech Map
Imagine a future scenario unfolding through 2025, where global semiconductor alliances — long carefully coordinated by the United States — begin to fracture dramatically. This speculative future doesn’t hinge on new technological breakthroughs or sudden security crises, but instead arises from political and economic miscalculations by an increasingly isolated and confrontational United States.
The second Trump presidency has been marked by the return and aggressive escalation of tariffs — not just on traditional adversaries, but on European, Japanese, and South Korean allies as well. The global technological order, previously delicately balanced, could begin to unravel quickly.
To grasp the potential significance of this speculative scenario, first reflect on how we might have arrived at such a crisis point. In earlier years, particularly under Biden, the United States pursued a policy termed by some as “small yard, high fence,” where semiconductor restrictions targeted specific, advanced technologies critical to China’s growth ambitions. The centerpiece of these restrictions was preventing Chinese access to advanced lithography machines, especially ASML’s EUV systems, which are essential for producing the…
