The Approaching Green Wave
THE FUTURIAN #2
Economic historians have noted five distinct pulses — or waves — of technology since the onset of the Industrial Revolution. The current fifth wave, what we know as the ‘Information Age’, is now firmly established as a feature of modern life. The cyclical nature of these waves has led some futurists to speculate about the possibility of a sixth wave.
Whilst each wave retains a number of unique characteristics, they all share some common features. They have all followed a similar developmental trajectory. This consists of six distinct phases — pre-eruption (where the need is established), eruption (where the technology bursts upon the scene), frenzy (where the merits of the technology are overstated), crisis (where the exaggerated claims realign with reality), synergy (streamlining the technologies), and finally maturity (where the technology becomes ubiquitous). It is normally the case that the pre-eruption phase of the successive wave occurs during the synergy phase of the previous wave.
Perhaps an appreciation of where we are now might demonstrate this rather abstract point. The global financial crisis saw the crisis of maturity of the information age (the fifth wave). This is the point about half way along the course of the wave where the exaggerated claims attributed to the developing technologies realign with the reality of what they can offer. The model suggests that the course for the decade just passed — and part of this one- would be a period where the technologies of the information age mature and consolidate prior to becoming ubiquitous. There is still some way to run with the development of information age technologies and applications, but the model suggests that this decade will see these technologies developing to maturity.
For innovation one needs to look for signs of the pre-eruption phase of the sixth wave. What is the sixth wave likely to be about? Technology has always developed to satisfy human needs. The first half of this century is likely to be dominated by significant global population growth combined with the limits to resources contained on the planet being tested. In a single word: scarcity. We take the view that the sixth wave will be all about resolving the issues of resource scarcity, which is why we have called it the Green Wave.
Science and technology develop to respond to the needs of the societies which they serve. In an era of acute resource scarcity, the focus of research and development will be to help alleviate that scarcity. This may manifest itself in a number of ways. For example, with the prospect of a looming crisis in the global stock of potable water, the development of water retaining, drought resistant crops will have quite a commercial edge. That commercial edge is likely to stimulate R&D to find a solution to that problem. At a much larger scale, that is what the Green Wave is likely to be about.
Allied to the issue of scarcity is the question of a changing climate. In many respects, the changed climate of the middle of the century is already determined. Our actions today will have an impact upon the climate for decades to come simply because the factors that cause the climate to change have a long period of accumulation and a long period of dissipation. Even if we act now to reduce our carbon footprint, it will take some decades — or even centuries — for the amount of carbon in the atmosphere to fall back to pre-industrial levels.
This will create an opportunity for technology. The clean-up of the atmosphere will take a long time given the current state of technology. However, modern history is full of examples where timescales are shortened through the development of new technologies. We think about how long it takes to travel around the Earth. In pre-industrial times, this would be measured in months. Today, passenger transit could be measured in hours. It is entirely possible that, given the need and the desire, suitable technologies to scrub the carbon from the atmosphere could be developed in a relatively short time.
These opportunities are like to travel along three trajectories — carbon replacement, carbon mitigation, and efficiency. Carbon replacement are those new technologies that provide alternative energy sources to carbon generating activities. Solar and wind energy come to mind as examples. Carbon mitigation refers to those new technologies that will help scrub carbon deposits from the atmosphere. For example, we may see genetically engineered plant life developed specifically for this purpose, a bit like plastic eating bacteria in the sea. Finally, carbon efficiency refers to technologies that reduce the unit of carbon input per output of a given activity. For example, if hydrocarbon fuelled transport has to be used, then technologies could be developed that increase, say, the miles per gallon that particular transport achieves. Together, these technologies represent the investment opportunities for the coming decade.
To a greater extent, this was all happening before the pandemic arrived. Investment in green technologies was on the rise, there was a growing awareness of the latent climate crisis, and there was a greater focus on corporate ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) issues. What the pandemic has changed is the timing of the trends. The pandemic response has been a significant fiscal stimulus in the US and Europe. This stimulus has been aimed at a ‘Green New Deal’ — the public funding of early stage research into new green technologies. Once this research has developed something useful, private sector investment will follow. Where we are now, in terms of the position along the trajectory, is just about leaving the pre-eruption phase and entering the eruption phase of the sixth wave. The pump primed by public sector investment is set to achieve lift off in the near future.
It is estimated that the consequence of all of this public sector funding will be to bring forward the impact of the Green Wave by about 5 to 10 years. In the first half of this decade, we are where we otherwise would have expected to be at the end of the decade. If this public focus delivers the anticipated results, we would expect to move from the pre-eruption phase of the sixth wave to the eruption phase during this decade. In this respect, the pandemic has created a ‘New Normal’. Events that would have happened anyway, are likely to happen sooner.
© Stephen Aguilar-Millan 2021
