ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, POLITICS & PREDICTIVE AI
How AI Forecasts the First 2024 Presidential Debate Using the Prompting Method of Future Narratives
ChatGPT also says Trump’s running mate is Ohio Senator J.D. Vance
With the “future narrative” prompt technique, we use ChatGPT to predict the first 2024 presidential debate.
AI may be able to project the outcome of socially dynamic events based on collective insights aggregated in training.
Update: Well, the event has been and gone, and even Democrat-friendly networks had to admit that Biden was not at his best (BBC called him “Stumbling Biden”), which is a far cry from the more pro-Biden output ChatGPT offered us ahead of the debate. Such is the nature of experiments! Now we have to interrogate why that happened. The obvious null is that AI can’t be used to project real events; however, there is a sound research basis for this theory, and this is the first of my own experiments with using ChatGPT to prognosticate that hasn’t had a positive result. Other explanations could be an inherent bias in the training data towards Biden, or perhaps that the predictions veer towards affirmation (and telling users what CHATGPT surmises the majority want to hear — which is how LLMs work, as they tend towards…
