Five Questions for a Futurist
Jacob Morgan on robots, e-residency, and the small business advantage.
Jacob Morgan, speaker, futurist, and author of The Future of Work, sees work in a way that really resonates with us at Jobbatical. We chatted with him about the globally connected future that is already becoming reality, around the world.
“[In the past] businesses had the ability to be late adopters, and many of them in fact were. They waited to see what would happen before charting their course; many waited several years. When it comes to the future of work, “late adopter” is the same thing as “out of business”
— The Future of Work, p. 18
On a global scale, how do you think different countries or regions compare in terms of embracing the new trends in work?
Many people look to the US as the leader but there are other parts of the world that are doing some cool things — India has cool stuff going on. I think the world’s smartest office building was recently built in the Netherlands. So there are companies doing interesting things all over the world, companies in Australia trying to get rid of email, there are companies in France doing cool things. And most of the companies I work with are international, but I think it’s really something that people in every part of the world are thinking about.
And if you spend a year working anywhere in the world, where would your ideal jobbatical be? Maybe your top three destinations?
Oh man, where would I want to go…well I probably would pick places I haven’t gone to yet. I’ve never been to Russia, so I think that would be a fun place to go to. And for some weird reason I’ve always wanted to go to Iceland, to check it out. I’ve never been there but I’m really curious and interested to go. And maybe Japan — never been to Japan. I think Jobbatical is a great idea for people who want to get those life experiences — working in another part of the world and working with interesting companies — and there will always be an audience of people who want that, which I think is great.
Japan was in the news last month for being the first country to follow Estonia’s lead in implementing e-ID cards. What’s your take on e-residency?
You know I think it’s great — it’s part of this big trend that we’re seeing toward breaking down barriers to doing business in any part of the world. So it deifnitely speaks to that trend, these e-residency initiatives are making it easier for you to work , live or start businesses anywhere in the world. It’s more and more making the world like one giant city — I think these e-residency programs are doing exactly that.
“The tenure of employees is already shrinking and the idea of permanent employees or careers will become arcane. Future employees won’t be picking a career or a company to work for; they will pick projects that they want to be a part of for multiple companies around the world.”
— The Future of Work, p. 76
Now a big question: do you think robots are eventually going to take our jobs?
I still think there will be human interaction where humans will have to work with automation to make decisions, but I think that when automation starts to imapct every single area of our lives, we’ll realize more and more that robots can often do a better job than humans, so I think that’s the direction that we’re going in. Unfortunately nobody really knows the answer — there’s always the debate going back and forth, and to be honest sometimes I can be swayed either way depending on different reports or research that come out, but it’s hard to imagine when software and robots become the standard that we’ll create enough jobs to replaces the ones that robots and automation take. We’ll have software that can diagnose patients better than doctors can. It’s one of those things that’s impossible to predict, and there are very smart people on both sides of the situation. So it’s hard to pick a side, but I say plan for the worst and hope for the best.
“Many believe that on the technology front we are outpacing Moore’s Law, which states that technological processing power will double every 18 months”
— The Future of Work, p. 17
What do you recommend for startups and small businesses then, as opposed to large companies, to thrive in this rapidly changing environment?
Well the trends are applicable to any sized company, and I think that small businesses are actually going to have a huge opportunity when we think about the future of work because they have to deal with less bureaucracy, and there are less issues there with slow decision making. I think the biggest thing for small companies to do is to understand what these trends are and to take action on these things before some of the bigger guys do.
For example, you no longer have to have a massive budget to hire an amazing marketer or content writer or developer, so smaller companies have a great opportunity to tap into top talent anywhere in the world. You can reach out to people anywhere in the world and get amazing talent, and smaller companies always have the advantage of being more nimble and of being able to make decisions quicker. So my advice to smaller companies is to act on those things, to make their smaller size their biggest strength. Don’t waste the opportunity you have to tap into top talent, to be faster, to be more nimble and to adjust quickly — double down on all those areas.
Will robots really take our jobs? What other advantages to small businesses have over large ones?
Let us know what you think in the comments, and take a look at our previous futurist interview, with Clinton innovation expert Alec Ross.
