Revisiting Bordeaux 2015: How are the wines showing in-bottle? Part 1

2015 was a great vintage in Bordeaux as evidenced by strong scores during En Primeur tastings in April 2016. According to our analysis during the 2016 En Primeur week, the 2015 vintage showed the highest average Global Wine Score of any vintage since 2000, and has now only been topped by the 2016 vintage. Now that the wines have been bottled, wine critics released their “re-tasting” scores of this excellent vintage. Let’s see how the new scores stack up to critics’ expectations from En Primeur week.

The Methodology

Our analysis is based on the scores of 110 wines tasted by 5 critics. The wines were tasted during En Primeur week in April 2016 and again in bottles between December 2017 and March 2018 by the following critics:

· Antonio Galloni, Vinous Media
· James Molesworth, Wine Spectator
· James Suckling, JamesSuckling.com
· Jane Anson, Decanter
· Neal Martin, transitioning from Wine Advocate to Vinous Media

To complete our analysis, we calculated 2 Global Wine Scores for each wine: one score from the En Primeur tasting and one score from the in-bottle tasting. For consistency, our analysis only includes wines that were re-tasted by all 5 critics. These 110 wines are generally representative of the top Bordeaux wines, but there are a few notable wines missing, including Château Cheval Blanc and Château Ausone. A complete list of the wines used along with their Global Wine Scores is provided at the end of the post.

Now that each wine has both of its Global Wine Scores, we can dive deeper into this vintage. We will look at the distribution of scores of red wines by both appellation and classification.

Appellation Analysis

The 2015 growing season was generally hot and dry, with some rain later in the summer. Each appellation has a unique terroir so we can expect to see slight differences between the appellations. Let’s take a look at which appellations show the most consistency overall and which stayed closest to their En Primeur performance.

Evolution of Scores Over Time
Here we can see the mean score for each appellation from both the En Primeur tasting and the in-bottle tasting. Most appellations showed a small decrease in average Global Wine Score from En Primeur to in-bottle tasting. Pessac-Léognan showed the smallest change over time (-0.03 points) while the other major appellations all had changes ranging from -0.10 points (Pauillac) to -0.28 points (Saint-Julien).

Score Distribution within Each Appellation
Here we can see the distribution of the Global Wine Scores from each major appellation for both En Primeur and in-bottle tastings. Each appellation has a wide range of scores, with Pomerol and Margaux having the two largest ranges.

Classification Analysis

Next we can analyse the wines in context of the 3 main classification systems in Bordeaux: the Grand Crus Classés en 1855, the Grands Crus Classés de Graves, and the Grand Crus Classés de Saint-Émilion. For a deeper dive into the relationship between classification and Global Wine Score, you can view our analysis based on the 2016 vintage.

Evolution of Scores Over Time
Once again, we saw a small but consistent decrease in scores from En Primeur tastings to bottled tastings. The Grand Crus Classés de Graves showed the smallest change of -0.03 points (this is the same group of wines as the appellation Pessac-Léognan). The classifications with the largest change were the 4eme Grand Cru Classé and the 2eme Grand Cru Classé, both with an average change of -0.27 points.

Score Distribution within Each Classification
Here we can see that the average range of scores within each classification is smaller than the average range of scores within each appellation, suggesting that wines within the same classification are of a more consistent quality level than wines within the same appellation. For the top tiers, the wines are very consistent and are rarely matched by wines from lower classifications, with a few exceptions.

Conclusion

Now that we have reviewed the scores by appellation and classification, what does it all mean? We observed a small (0.20%) decrease in mean scores from En Primeur to bottled tastings. Although scores decreased, this does not mean that the vintage is any less exciting than the critics predicted back in April 2016.

Why did the scores decrease? This trend is consistent with trends we have observed in the past when tracking scores for 10 years after En Primeur. As good as the critics are, wine tasting is not an exact science, and we expect a slight variation in scores over time. Additionally, there are many factors in the cellar that can affect the wine during the aging period that may or may not be in line with critic’s expectations when they score the wines during En Primeur.

Overall, this analysis shows us that critics accurately predicted the quality of wine during the En Primeur tastings for the 2015 vintage. This is important because En Primeur tastings and scores have a huge impact on the market for Bordeaux wine. While it is too early to tell how the scores will change 5–10 years down the road, we are excited to keep tracking this excellent Bordeaux vintage and will share more insights with you in the future. Look out for our next post where we will take a closer look at the top rated wines from the vintage, as well as a closer analysis per wine critic.

Read the second part of our analysis on the Bordeaux 2015 vintage!

Click here to view the list of wines used in this analysis along with their Global Wine Scores.