Media in 2017 — My top prediction
The following prediction may be startling. But ask yourself if it rings true.
2016 was the year digital ad-spending overtook TV ad-spending for the first time. Its an incredible landmark, a tipping point, but here is where things get unexpected.
The pendulum of media will swing again
The impact of digital ads has been growing ever since the internet took off, and it will continue to do so. But the overwhelming abundance of absolutely terrible content because of it, is becoming entirely too obvious as well. Even before the American election and the ensuing debate about fake news and algorithmic echo chambers.
I’m going through this feeling of dissatisfaction myself, my personal circle of friends are too it seems, and judging by the wealth of articles we are seeing submitted to The Graph and other curation hubs, there is a growing swell of people who have become seriously tired of the embarrassing sensationalist headlines that get pushed into their feeds and recommendations regularly.
People know that clickbait content is in an ongoing and desperate race to the bottom, based on a business model that places clicks ahead of satisfaction. People know the internet is catering to our basest Freudian impulses, and that brings me to my prediction.
2017 will be the year where the pendulum of media finally begins to swing back towards quality again.
Here is a great introduction to the media balance beam and how the last 5 years have been heavily skewed towards distribution. And just FYI, Medium agrees!
The impending rise of quality first
The current ad-based model that drives the internet, places more value on getting a click than it does on creating a true and valuable connection with returning visitors. The ensuing result is that publishers currently treat their users as tourists, rather than regulars. There are a lot of quality content companies that have reached a maximum bleed point, where catering to the ad-driven model is simply unsustainable. What is the main reason for this? Well, to begin with 85 cents of every new dollar spent on digital advertising went to Facebook and Google in the first quarter of 2016 — two companies that don’t make any content of their own.
At the same time users are screaming for better access models to emerge, like Netflix and Spotify. As users we have reached a point where our attention is being violated by addiction tactics and a digital detox is not even feasible, since we depend on the connectivity. In short we need to ask tougher questions of our media supply to stop the tide of churnalism.
There more to say, but out of respect for your time, I’ll keep this brief.
Let the world know your thoughts, please!
Before I sign off, here is a quick Christmas request.
If you are part of the growing community of people who are getting fed up with their newsfeed, or if you feel like you are spending too much time checking notifications from desperate attention merchants. Write about it here on Medium. Talk about it over the Christmas meal. Share stuff about it and inspire others to do the same. Movements start with people.
Thanks for reading. Do you agree? Feel free to reach out in the comments or over LinkedIn to start a conversation.
Enjoy a peaceful holiday season with your family and friends — hopefully offline? It will be an exciting year ahead.
Mads
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P.S. If you are more curious a lot of the above ties into Time Well Spent and Firefox’s Healthy Sustainable Web. The Glass Room and Network Effect are other great creative projects exploring this subject.
