Rise of Subscriptions and the Fall of Advertising

(Note: I’ve got a running update of articles related to this topic at the end of this post…and as long as this keeps getting claps, I’ll keep updating it!)

(Extra note: I’m now writing over at Substack, in part because of my research for this post. I’m not doing paid subscriptions but I encourage you to signup for my weekly newsletter over there!)

We talk a lot about how individual startups disrupt existing business models — such as Airbnb vs. hotels or Craigslist vs. newspaper classifieds — but we sometimes fail to appreciate the more massive disruptions that cut across many industries at once. Ecommerce is one example: People increasingly choose to purchase everything from airplane tickets to underwear via digital storefronts. Consumer habits are slow to change, but when they do change they cut across categories — and even iconic companies with hundreds of years of history can fall away.

I believe we are on the eve of another “macro disruption” based on consumer habit change: Media consumption is moving from advertising to subscription-supported models. We are getting closer to a consumer-controlled world, and every company that spends money on advertising will be forced to find a new way to do business.

Subscriptions are Growing Everywhere

The hottest topic in the media business right now is the unexpected growth in paid subscriptions. Newspapers — left for dead many times in the past few years — are now seeing a…