Analyzing Aroldis Chapman and the MLB Closers’ Market
Chapman signed a record-breaking deal in the offseason, but has been far from his dominant self this season.
When the New York Yankees shipped closer Aroldis Chapman to the eventual World Series champions Chicago Cubs during last season’s trade deadline, they knew that they would still be frontrunners to re-sign the left-handed flame thrower during the hot stove free agency months of the baseball offseason.
They did just that.
However, the Chapman who the Yankees believed they landed in the offseason when they signed him to a 5-year, $86 million deal (the largest contract signed by a reliever in baseball history), and the Chapman who has pitched this season are two diametrically opposed pitchers.
In addition to experiencing a stint on the DL and nagging injuries, Chapman has had a substandard year with a 3.89 ERA while only converting 16/20 save opportunities. He has allowed five runs in 3 1/3 innings in his last three appearances, including a blown save and loss to the rival Red Sox on Sunday. Manager Joe Girardi and the Yankees sat Chapman down for Wednesday’s game against the Mets due to a lingering leg issue the team did not want to re-aggravate.
The Yankees need Chapman to be at his best if they hope to make a run deep into October. Chapman’s workload could very well be catching up to him. The Cubs knew all along that they were renting Chapman for a World Series run last season and they used him with any opportunity they could. He was the anchor of the bullpen in the postseason and one of the few guys the Cubs relied on for momentous outs. His massive workload coupled with how hard he throws the ball each time he takes the mound could be reasons why Chapman has regressed this season.
Closers are often judged by the amount of times they fail as opposed to how much they succeed, but Chapman is not the only reliever having consistency issues this season.
The San Francisco Giants paid Marc Melancon $62 million in the offseason with the hopes that he would be their closer, yet he is currently not serving in that role. Like Chapman, Melancon has experienced a stint on the disabled list and the Giants are in no rush to return him to the closer role he was signed to occupy.
Melancon pitched 29 2/3 innings last season with the Nationals while saving 17/18 ballgames with a 1.82 ERA, leading him to be one of the highly-coveted closers on the free agent market this past offseason. The Giants snagged him but they might be regretting the price they paid. Melancon has a 3.97 ERA and has blown four save opportunities for the Giants, who are having an abysmal year. It could be because he’s been overused the past few seasons but nonetheless, it’s difficult for closers to replicate consecutive successful seasons, particularly when they begin to age.
Many speculated that Zach Britton would be on the move during last month’s non-waiver trade deadline, but the Orioles decided to keep Britton instead of dealing him. Had a team traded for Britton, they would have paid a large haul for a closer who is nowhere near how dominant he was last season. Again, the 29-year-old Britton has had his fair share of injuries this season, which could be a large reason why he has struggled to the tune of a 3.18 ERA.
Yes, he is a perfect 10/10 in save opportunities, but his command and dominance is light years away from where it was last season, when he posted a stingy 0.54 ERA and converted all 47 of his save opportunities. However, he threw 67 innings last season and entering this season, Britton had pitched a combined 209 innings. The Orioles may still shop Britton — who will become a free agent after the 2018 season — this offseason and if a team decides to pay the likely steep price for his services, they should be cautious of his recent injury history and immense workload.
Perhaps teams should follow in the Cubs’ footsteps when it comes to signing closers. The Cubs acquired Wade Davis to be the team’s new closer from the Kansas City Royals in the offseason in exchange for Jorge Soler. Davis, 31, has been utterly dominant in 25 career postseason innings, yielding just one earned run and posting a 38-to-5 K/BB ratio.
Davis, who is earning $10 million this season, is in the final year of his contract and will hit free agency after the season. The Cubs were cautious before acquiring Davis, as he served two separate DL stints last season. However, Davis is a perfect 24/24 in save opportunities this season and has been one of the lone consistent players in an otherwise inconsistent season from the Cubs. The Cubs are not tied to Davis beyond this season, however, should they decide to bring him back, they can negotiate a new deal to potentially do so.
The Cubs were smart in deciding not to pursue a long-term deal with Davis, a veteran closer who has pitched frequently the past few seasons and has missed time because of injuries. And maybe it’s time for the rest of Major League Baseball to follow suit and realize that closers should be treated as year-to-year propositions regardless of what the statistics indicate.
