MLB Early Season Overreactions
Will the Dodgers miss the Postseason? The Braves win the NL East? Mookie for MVP
With the first month of the MLB season already in the rearview mirror, there are many trends and interesting bits of information to analyze. The heart of the schedule is finally coming up and while it’s still early in the season, it’s never too early to draw conclusions. Here are three overreactions to the first month of the 162-game regular season schedule.
- Dodgers primed to miss the Postseason
At the beginning of play on Tuesday, only two of last season’s Nation League postseason teams ended April in first place (Arizona and Chicago). The Dodgers have gotten off to a slow start. LA was a heavy favorite in the NL at the start of the season. The Dodgers (15–19, 8 GB of 1st in the NL West as of Tuesday morning) have already been bitten by the injury bug as well as a decline in pitching depth. It doesn’t help that LA has only managed to beat the first place D-Backs only three times (as of Tuesday) in 2018. The Dodgers lost shortstop Corey Seager to season-ending Tommy John surgery and Justin Turner has yet to return from an injury sustained during Spring Training. Clayton Kershaw was recently placed on the DL with biceps tendinitis. With the Diamondbacks playing some of the best baseball in the entire Majors, the Dodgers already find themselves in a steep hole that they may not be able to climb out of.
The good news for LA? Per MLB, only once in the last 20 years — in 1998 — did all six May 1 division leaders go on to win division titles.
2. The Atlanta Braves will win the NL East
Yes, it early, but this Braves team, despite the influx of youth on the roster is playing like they are for real. Freddie Freeman has been the face of the offense for years, but the emergence of Ozzie Albies, the resurgence of Dansby Swanson and the recent call up of top prospect Ronald Acuña Jr. has the Braves playing like it’s 2014 again — the last time they were in first place in the NL East (July 20, 2014 to be exact). There’s little doubt that in 2–3 years, the Braves will rule the division, but they might be a year too early to truly contend for a NL pennant, however, they will at the very least be a pesky team all season. They’ve been the biggest surprise in baseball thus far and the recent addition of former Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista gives Atlanta the veteran presence they need in the locker room. While Bautista’s best days are behind him, it’s a risk worth taking for Atlanta considering he was signed to a one-year $1 million deal on April 18.
The scariest part about the Braves? According to MLB Pipeline, the Braves entered the spring with the second-best farm system in baseball, with enough pitching prospects to fill out two full rotations. One of those pitching prospects, 20-year-old Mike Soroka, made his debut May 1 and has started two games for the Braves. The young Braves don’t know any better — they will continue to fight and scrap every single game and don’t be surprised if they find themselves sitting atop the NL East at season’s end.
3. Mookie for MVP
Mookie, Mookie, Mookie! Mookie Betts is playing like one of the best players in the Majors, proving that he should be considered amongst the game’s elite. Betts is a large part why the Red Sox find themselves in a virtual first place tie with the rival Yankees for the best record in baseball (25–10 after play Tuesday). He already has two, three-homer days in the young season and is batting a whopping .355 with a MLB-best 13 home runs, 26 RBI and WAR of 2.6. To put his WAR in greater perspective, only Mike Trout has a better WAR (3.1) in the Majors amongst position players per, Baseball Reference. Betts has remained patient at the plate, swinging at roughly 36.2 percent of pitches he has seen while making contact on 87.7 percent of his swings. It remains to be seen whether Betts can maintain his gaudy numbers for an entire season, but he is sure to be involved in the MVP race all season.
