Can Cotton be King in President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Uzbekistan?

Lessening media emphasis on cotton reform could be indicative of the lasting phenomenon of waning government interest in its own pet policies.

By Elizabeth Lewis, Analyst

Uzbekistan is ranked sixth in the world for cotton production, yet is not represented in the top ten cotton exporting countries. This disparity is due primarily to a boycott of Uzbek cotton that was introduced in 2006 in response to the use of forced labor in harvesting cotton. As a result of the boycott, which is supported by brands such as Calvin Klein, Amazon, Adidas, Zara, and Ikea, Uzbekistan sells the bulk of its cotton on Asian markets at prices lower than what it could be sold to Western markets, limiting growth opportunities and export volumes. The aim of the boycott is to encourage Uzbekistan to abandon the practice of forcing students and public sector workers, i.e. teachers and doctors, to pick cotton. This is a side effect of Uzbekistan’s state-led economy that tied the career success of state officials to their ability to ensure that their respective regions hit the cotton production quotas set by the central government.

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, since coming to power in 2016, has worked to advance the Uzbek cotton industry and dismantle the forced labor system in Uzbekistan, because of his interest in increasing export potential. Since then Mirziyoyev’s government has worked to end forced child labor in addition to collaborating with civil society activists, introducing higher wages for cotton pickers, and creating a campaign to educate farmers about the legal consequences of using forced labor.

This article examines sentiment trends toward both cotton quotas and forced labor in cotton growing in Uzbek media after Mirziyoyev became president. It seeks to assess whether favor for increasing the status of Uzbek cotton through Mirziyoyev’s reforms is waning.

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, since coming to power in 2016, has worked to advance the Uzbek cotton industry and dismantle the forced labor system in Uzbekistan, because of his interest in increasing export potential.

Mirziyoyev Presidency Puts the Focus on Cotton

The number of mentions of cotton quotas and forced labor in cotton growing increased greatly after Mirziyoyev became president and following the subsequent introductions of new cotton reforms.

Since 2017 cotton, the use of forced labor, and quotas have been hot topics in Uzbek media. This is because of Mirziyoyev’s public acknowledgement before the UN General Assembly on September 19, 2017 that Uzbekistan struggled with the use of forced labor.

Mentions of forced labor in cotton growing and cotton quotas follow similar upward trends. The increase in discussion in 2018 was likely brought on by a series of government decrees issued on May 10, 2018 that forbade the use of state employees, teachers, doctors, and students as cotton pickers. Numerous Human Rights organizations saw this decree as a step in the right direction for reforming Uzbek cotton harvesting and removing the practice of forced labor. Following the 2018 reform that decreased the use of forced labor in cotton harvesting, Uzbekistan received international praise in 2019, and was removed from the U.S. list of products that are manufactured with the use of child labor. The reforms continued in 2020, with the abolition of state cotton quotas on March 6, 2020, which many human rights workers consider to be one of the central drivers to the continued use of forced labor in harvesting cotton. These reforms contributed to the subsequent increases in the mentions of cotton, forced labor in cotton growing, and cotton quotas in Uzbek media.

A positive start and subsequent decline in sentiment

A closer look at the aforementioned data shows strikingly positive sentiment toward both forced labor in cotton growing and cotton quotas in 2016. The sentiment although remaining positive, does begin to decline in 2017.

The news sources examined in this research have a heavy pro-government tilt; this creates a media environment that has its finger on the pulse of government opinion and is highly reactive to its moods and which topics are of particular interest and importance to the president and the government. Thus, when government attitude begins to shift, so too does the positive sentiment displayed by the media. The Mirziyoyev’s government is greatly concerned with cotton production and the potential positive impact that reform in the cotton industry could have. The initial extremely positive sentiment toward forced labor in cotton growing and cotton quotas can be understood as the enthusiasm that many new presidents, regardless of the country they govern, have for a policy pet project. At the beginning of his term Mirziyoyev was optimistic about the positive change that could be achieved in removing forced labor and quotas from the production of Uzbek cotton.

After seeing the reaction of the international community, it is, however, possible that the Uzbek government has become frustrated with the little positive change in the perception of Uzbek cotton at the international level. The uncompromising stance of many international brands that have a zero tolerance policy for purchasing products that are produced with forced labor, has left Uzbekistan with a waning interest in continuing to pursue a robust campaign of reforms to how cotton is produced.

The uncompromising stance of many international brands that have a zero tolerance policy for purchasing products that are produced with forced labor, has left Uzbekistan with a waning interest in continuing to pursue a robust campaign of reforms to how cotton is produced.

Implications

This research and analysis indicates that the Uzbek government is beginning to lessen the emphasis previously placed on cotton as its future cash crop with tremendous export potential and on improving the perception of Uzbekistan in the international community. This lessening of enthusiasm could be indicative of a lasting phenomenon of gradual waning of government interest in its own pet policies. Moreover, the upheaval of the textile industry in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, coupled with the data presented here, makes it unclear if Mirziyoyev will continue reform in this industry. Looking forward it will be important to see how future reforms are perceived both inside Uzbekistan and by the international community to determine the viability of cotton being the product to bring Uzbekistan the economic success and international recognition it desires.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Elizabeth Lewis is an analyst at Hillhouse Analytics. A graduate student at Georgetown University, studying Eurasian, Russian, and East European Affairs, she has particular interest in the way conceptualizations of nationalism have developed in post-Soviet states. She speaks Russian and previously spent one year teaching at Belarus State University in Minsk, Belarus as a Fulbright English Teaching Assistant.

ABOUT HILLHOUSE

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