0–1, everyone: The story of the NFC North
Move over, NFC Least
The Chicago Bears kicked off the 2021 NFL season with a showcase showdown with the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday Night Football. The main storyline emerging from that contest: Wow. The Bears still suck.
I’m not piling on here.
In fact, having sat through the entire debacle earlier in the day that was the Green Bay Packers’ “contest” against the don’t-forget-they-are-mighty New Orleans Saints, the Bears’ 34–14 drubbing seemed poetically masterful compared to the supposedly Super Bowl-bound Packers’ no-show 38–3 dumpster fire.
Or it would have been a dumpster fire had anyone shown up to light it.
In other NFC North news, the Detroit Lions allowed the San Francisco 49ers to bust out to a 38–10 lead before furiously yet impotently clawing back onto the scoreboard for a resounding defeat to the tune of 41–33. And the “other” NFC North playoff hopeful, the Minnesota Vikings, dropped a supposedly winnable road game in Cincinnati to the Bengals in overtime, 27–24.
Of the four NFC North teams, the Vikings looked the least incompetent, and they lost to a rebuilding team that could only eke out four wins last season.
NFC North football fever. Catch it. There is no vaccination available.
Second verse, same as the first?
So here we are at week two. Never mind that the NFC North fell down four flights of stairs to get here. We’re here. Can they stink it up as bad in week two as they did in week one? Why no, sunshine! The Lions travel to Green Bay for a “Who sucks more?” temporary placeholder game on Monday Night Football. One of those two will “earn” a win, or at least a tie, which is miles above week one’s results.
Sometimes progress is earned. Other times, it just happens because it has to. See? Even if your team sucks, we still get life lessons out of football.
Looking ahead at week two action: As of this writing, Las Vegas oddsmakers have the Packers anywhere from 10- to 11.5-point favorites over the Lions. Talk about a case of “What are you going to believe, your lying eyes or me?” If we’re going by actual NFL football, real-world results, the Lions should be at least 8-point favorites over the Packers. No joke. To wit:
Lions quarterback: 338 yards passing, 3 touchdowns, one interception
Packers quarterbacks: 201 yards, zero touchdowns, 2 interceptions, one turnover by fumble
Lions rushes by running backs: 20 rushes, 93 yards, one touchdown
Packers rushes by running backs: 14 rushes for 42 yards, zero touchdowns
Looking for style points? The Lions managed to get blown out to the tune of 38–10, before making the game a more respectable 41–33 final tally. The Packers managed to get blown out 38–3 and stayed there. One team has got some heart. The other team has a reputation.
Both the Lions and the Packers found themselves in the same boat: drowning in incompetence, trashing any pre-conceived game plans and forced to play comeback hero ball through the air. What happened after those disasters diverged greatly.
The Packers’ All Pro top wide receiver, Davante Adams, managed a mere 5 receptions for 56 yards on 7 targets with no touchdowns. The Lions, with their supposedly inferior talent, had three players do as well or better than that:
T.J. Hockenson: 8 receptions, 97 yards, 1 touchdown
D’Andre Swift: 8 receptions, 65 yards, 1 touchdown
Jamaal Williams: 8 receptions, 56 yards
Nothing to write home about. But far more professional than the Green Bay Packers on bad days for both teams. In 2020, the Packers had the league’s top scoring offense and the top-rated red zone offense. The Lions are trying out a new quarterback, amidst a host of other changes. Advantage: change.
If you’re betting on the Packers/Lions game, take the Lions and the points. Unless you want to bet on history over facts. We’ll see.
Who can change the narrative?
The much-maligned Bears, who turned in a dud of a performance on Sunday night at the Los Angeles Rams, at least managed to find the end zone twice against last season’s top defense. They accomplished it with two new quarterbacks being integrated into the scheme. There are flaws, no doubt. But there is also hope.
The Bears’ two-QB platoon system, which seems to be the 2021 trick du jour, with the aforementioned Bears, the New Orleans Saints, the San Francisco 49ers and the Miami Dolphins getting in on the trend already, revealed that Justin Fields may be a force to be reckoned with. Sooner than later, if you ask anyone not named Matt Nagy or Andy Dalton.
I am not a Dalton hater. In fact, I approve of Nagy’s use of him in the early going, along with sprinkling in Fields where he can be effective. But that offensive line … sheesh. The Bears offense is just not that potent, period. It may become so as the season progresses, but a steady yet unspectacular Dalton probably does give the Bears a better chance to win, than a likely up-and-down rookie QB … as long as the Bears defense is anything like the Bears defense is supposed to be.
So far, it’s not.
In week two, the Bears defense will get their shot at redemption against the surprising, early division-leading Cincinnati Bengals, who just dispatched the Minnesota Vikings. Not for nothing, young Joe Burrow earned a 128.8 quarterback rating against the Vikings in week one. Matthew Stafford put up a 156.1 rating against the Bears in week one, so … yay? The Bears are catching a break?
It was not pretty against the Rams. The guess here is that several NFL defenses on the Rams schedule this year will come away with the same realizations of ugliness when looking in the mirror on Mondays. The Rams offense can light up the league, as we’ve seen recently. Now with Matthew Stafford’s ability to make all the throws — a factor lacking in the recent Jared Goff-led versions of the Rams offense — the Rams are looking like very much the kings of the NFC West if not more.
That is, unless, the Arizona Cardinals turn out to be just what we saw on Sunday, as they walloped a playoff team from last year on the road in Nashville to the tune of 38–13. This is the present dilemma facing the currently least embarrassing NFC North squad: The Minnesota Vikings. The Vikes get the pleasure of traveling to Arizona to take on the Cardinals in week two.
Let’s be fair: The oft-maligned Kirk Cousins had a pretty respectable day in Cincinnati. His stat line included 36 of 49 for 351 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 3 sacks and a rating of 106.8. That usually wins. It almost did.
A similar performance (on the road, again) will probably not win against the resurgent Cardinals QB, Kyler Murray, who led the charge against the Tennessee Titans with 21 of 32 for 289 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception, 2 sacks, 5 rushes for 20 yards & 1 touchdown for a QB rating of 121.0.
The Cardinals put their collective foot on the necks of the Tennessee Titans and never let up. If there is any momentum carrying over from week one to week two, the Cardinals have it over the Vikings.
Can the Vikings win in the desert? Yes. They would be the NFC North’s best hope in week two, if it weren’t for the fact that the Lions are playing the Packers. To get a win against Arizona, the Vikings will have to overcome some matchup disadvantages.
If the Vikings’ suspect defense from a year ago and continuingly iffy showing from a week ago are the same characters that show up in week two, the result is going to be another L. Clearly, Kyler Murray is farther along in his progress than Joe Burrow and poses a much more difficult running threat. A repeat of his week one stat line will certainly spell doom for the Vikings.
The Vikings last week finally made running back Joe Mixon the Joe Mixon he was always supposed to be: 29 rushes for 127 yards, 1 touchdown plus 4 receptions for 23 yards. In other words, the Vikes had no answer for him while Joe Burrow turned in a career game.
Unlike the Bengals in week one, the Cardinals choose to divvy up the running back touches pretty evenly (yet still effectively) among Chase Edmonds (12 for 63 on the ground; 4 for 43 through the air) and James Connor (16 for 53 on the ground). It’s pick your poison. Although the poison may not kill you outright, it will still make you pretty sick if you end up like the Titans — way behind early on.
Dalvin Cook was not very impactful on the ground (3.1 YPC), but continues to deliver in total yards from scrimmage, as a very effective pass outlet for Kirk Cousins (6 receptions for 43 yards). His one fumble lost looms large any time you lose a one-score game.
The Vikings will have a tough time coming away with a win without a stellar outing from Kirk Cousins and his talented receiver corps. To make that work, the Vikings will have to solve the Cardinals’ pass rush, which held the Titans to 162 net pass yards on the strength of 6 sacks for 56 yards lost. Five came courtesy of Chandler Jones, the NFC’s defensive player of the week. Any game plan that does not consist of doubling Jones is a bad one (This message brought to you by Isaiah Simmons, J.J. Watt, Budda Baker and Michael Dogbe).
DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk both put up two touchdown passes last week. They must be licking their chops at facing the Vikings secondary that is still mixing and matching to find the right personnel, after last season’s showing as the 32nd-ranked passing defense.
Shallow holes have been dug in week one. Glory may not be restored to the NFC North in week two. But after four stumbles, we are left to wonder who in the black and blue division can dig even deeper?
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