2017 NFL week 1 picks against the spread
Stats and insights on every game plus 3 best bets
Are you ready for some football?? The season already started off with a bang Thursday night with the Kansas City Chiefs shocking the New England Patriots 42–27. A star was born in Kareem Hunt, Alex Smith outplayed Tom Brady, and suddenly 30 other NFL teams have a little more hope for the season going forward.
It’s a full slate of games Sunday with eight early games, a huge late afternoon NFC battle, an NFC East clash Sunday night, and a Monday night doubleheader. Picks are listed first with the point spread, followed by the opponent, with the three best bets marked. Let’s get to it!
New England -8.5 vs Kansas City (Thursday)
Welp, there goes the perfect season.
New York Jets +8 at Buffalo
The Jets are openly tanking. The Bills are secretly tanking. And yet one of these teams will win and lead the AFC East for a week. The Jets have won eight of the last 14 matchups and won both last year, and three of the last four have been within one score. The Jets are really bad but the Bills are too. Buffalo shouldn’t be a touchdown favorite over anyone.
Tennessee -2.5 vs. Oakland
My two best over/unders for the 2017 season are Tennessee over 8.5 and Oakland under 9.5, so this one’s easy. The Titans top-three run defense could make Marshawn Lynch’s return to football miserable, and Oakland’s defense may kick start the year for my dark horse MVP Marcus Mariota.
The Raiders won’t be able to possess the ball long enough. That puts the Titans’ powerful offensive line and run game on the field for 35 or 40 minutes, and that means big trouble for Oakland. The Titans are my big 2017 sleeper and they could announce themselves with aplomb here.
Atlanta -6 at Chicago
The Falcons have waited seven long months to get that nasty 28–3 Super Bowl taste out of their mouths, and the Bears could be the unlucky opponent they take it out on. Mike Glennon makes his first start for Chicago against a swarming Falcons pass rush, and the Bears have lost seven September games in a row against the spread. Atlanta has struggled on grass in the past but is 6–1 against the spread in their past seven there. This is just too big of an ask for a young Chicago team.
Arizona -2 at Detroit
Not a ton to go off, but a two-point line basically makes this a pick’ em so take your favorite. Matt Stafford remains 5–46 in his career against teams that finish with a record above .500. Do you expect the Cardinals to bounce back with a winning record? Take Arizona. Think Palmer is done? Grab the home dog. I’ve got Arizona contending for the NFC playoffs and Detroit out of the picture, so Cards it is.
Houston -5.5 vs. Jacksonville
**BEST BET**
The Texans have won six in a row against the Jaguars, all against Blake Bortles. J.J. Watt is back and he and Jadeveon Clowney are going to make life miserable for Bortles. Dude has thrown for 448 yards in three career starts in Houston and has yet to throw a single touchdown. This Jaguars team is supposed to build around rookie RB Leonard Fournette and the run game, but Houston is just much better. This will be an emotional game for the Texans and their fans. Expect a big performance.
Cincinnati -3 vs. Baltimore
Big game for both teams, who bookend their seasons with Weeks 1 and 17 matchups that could define the season for each. The AFC looks wide open for one of these teams to grab at least a Wild Card, so a win here sets the tone. The Bengals won six of the last seven matchups, and Baltimore has only one win in their past eight visits to Cincinnati, back in 2011. This game is a bit of a toss-up, but history favors the home team.
Pittsburgh -9 at Cleveland
Good luck finding a stat in Cleveland’s favor. Pittsburgh has won 30 of the last 34 between these two teams including 14 of 17 on the road. Roethlisberger is 21–2 in his career against Cleveland, and the Browns have won only one of their last 18 season openers. If you’re looking for a safe Week 1 survivor pick, you just found it.
But will the Steelers win by double digits? Weirdly enough, Pittsburgh seems to win by smaller margins at home against the Browns than on the road. They’ve won the past three games in Cleveland by 15, 16, and 16. The Steelers defense is good enough to give rookie QB DeShone Kizer problems, and Pittsburgh should win easily.
Los Angeles Rams -4 vs. Indianapolis
**BEST BET**
Scott Tolzien is only a four-point underdog! Repeat, Scott Tolzien is only a four-point underdog!! Tolzien’s started three games in his career and lost by 14, 14, and 21. The Rams now have Wade Philips at defensive coordinator and plenty of talent even without Aaron Donald in camp. The Colts are really bad without Andrew Luck, like maybe worst in the league bad, and the Rams look like a real team this year. This one could get embarrassing.
Washington +1 vs Philadelphia
Home field is generally worth three points, which means Vegas thinks Philly is four points better than Washington on a neutral field, and that’s surprising. Both teams are question marks heading into the season, but the Redskins have won the last five matchups, and three of the last four were one-score games. These teams typically play close games, so take the home team and the point.
Carolina -5.5 at San Francisco
**BEST BET**
Carolina added a new weapon to its offense in rookie runner-slash-receiver-slash-kick-returner-slash-everything Christian McCaffrey, and San Francisco was historically bad last season against running backs. Kareem Hunt may not be the only rookie RB to break out this weekend. The 49ers overhauled their roster and coaching staff, and those changes usually take some time. The Panthers return a healthy Cam Newton and Luke Kuechly to a roster that almost went undefeated just two seasons ago. This line looks far too low.
Green Bay -3 vs. Seattle
A monster game, two heavy NFC favorites facing off in a game that could have major playoff implications for seeding and home field. It’s the afternoon game and it’s only up against the J.V. Colts-Rams game and the Panthers-49ers blowout, so it should get your full attention. And it actually feels like a rivalry with a handful of memorable games. There was the playoff game two years ago with three scores in the final 90 seconds and overtime, the Matt Hasselbeck “We want the ball and we’re going to score” pick-six game, and of course the Fail Mary.
But the home team has dominated, winning 11 of the 12 matchups this century and all of the past six, four by double digits. These hyped games often fail to live up to the billing as one team pulls away. Let’s hope this one does.
New York Giants +4.5 at Dallas
NFC East games are impossible to predict, and this series is one of the most capricious. The Giants swept the 13–3 Cowboys last year and have won three straight, but Dallas won the five before that. And don’t expect the location to matter. New York won five of its last eight trips to Dallas. About the only thing you can count on in these games is that they’ll be close. Nine of the past ten were one-score games. These matchups are unpredictable, close, and weird.
Add to that all the Ezekiel Elliott drama. First his suspension got, uh, suspended, and Friday news makes it look like Zeke may play much or all of the season. What in the world will this Dallas season look like? It’s sure to be a circus and it starts Sunday night. When in doubt, take the points.
New Orleans +3 at Minnesota
The first half of a Monday Night Football doubleheader and the return of Adrian Peterson to Minnesota. Peterson has promised revenge, I guess for the Vikings making him the highest paid running back in history, building their team around him for a decade, and standing by him amidst the child abuse allegations and legal troubles.
The Saints haven’t had a winning record on the road since 2001. The Vikings have only covered the spread in one of their last nine on Monday Night Football. Something has to give, but it would be just like the Vikings to lose the season opener in a stadium they’ll never get back to for the Super Bowl in February. Call it pessimistic Vikings fandom. I call it reality.
Denver -3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are seemingly everyone’s favorite sleeper this year, and there’s plenty to like with a revamped line and a litany of players back from injury. The Broncos seem to be headed in the other direction, with last year’s #1 defense losing a couple key starters. The popular narrative is that the Chargers have Denver’s number, but that story is outdated. The Chargers did win nine of 11 against the Broncos — from 2006 to 2011 under Norv Turner. The Broncos have dominated recently, winning 10 of the last 12. They’re always tough at home and still have one of the best defenses in the league.
Week 1 record: 0–1
Season record: 0–1
Best bets: 0–0
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