The 8 NFL teams fighting for the #1 pick
The first of a 4-part NFL season preview of all 32 NFL teams, starting with the 8 at the bottom …
It’s NFL Season Preview Week! The season finally kicks off Thursday night with the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons, and all 32 teams are in action this weekend. We made it, y’all.
It turns out 32 teams break conveniently into four groups of eight. We’ll start today previewing eight teams who may be fighting for the #1 pick in the draft. Tomorrow you get eight teams moving in the wrong direction, with eight in the right direction Wednesday and eight Super Bowl contenders to kick the season off Thursday. Shouts to Mays or Barnwell or someone at Grantland where I got this idea from. RIP.
Let’s get to the eight worst teams in the league. Spoiler alert: it’s not who you think…
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have the lowest over/under in the NFL at 5.5, tied with the 0–16 Browns, odd for a team with stars like David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Patrick Peterson dotting the lineup. Quick question, how many games did Arizona win last year?
Did you guess five? Maybe six? Nope and nope. Arizona went 8–8 somehow. And by “somehow” I mean their defense is quite good and somehow none of us notice. The Cards are the only team in the NFL with a top-5 DVOA defense each of the past two years. And that’s despite the defense getting little to no help from the offense, constantly in bad positions. This defense is good, and the offense is sure to be better than it was under the pupu platter of Blaine Gabbert, Drew Stanton, and 38-year-old Carson Palmer.
Don’t be surprised if the Cardinals look good early. They get three home games in September against Washington, Chicago, and Seattle when the Arizona heat is as a huge home-field advantage. Those are all winnable, especially before Sam Bradford suffers his inevitable injury.
So what’s not to like? Mostly everything except the defense, Johnson, and Fitzgerald. The offensive line is bad. The QB play will be subpar, improved or not. There’s only one receiver, and he runs mostly seven-yard slants. And the special teams are atrocious, bottom-5 DVOA each of the last two years.
Oh and there’s that brutal road schedule. Check out this murderer’s row: Rams, 49ers, Vikings, Chiefs, Chargers, Packers, Falcons, Seahawks. Woof. Arizona should be a touchdown underdog in each of those games and could easily go 0–8 on the road, especially since the team should turn over the reins to Josh Rosen sometime this season.
These Cardinals aren’t terrible, and they’re not the worst team in the league. But they’re not going to be good either.
Over 5.5 — pass
Buffalo Bills
Speaking of worst in the league, the Buffalo Bills! Hey remember when the Bills made the playoffs last year? That really happened! They even scored three points!
No team overachieved more than Buffalo. The Bills rode a decent defense and a heap of luck into the playoffs behind a Pythagorean expectation of 6.3 wins somehow flipped to 9–7 and a miracle playoff berth on the shoulders of Andy Dalton. Let’s just say Buffalo fans should savor those memories.
These Bills are terrible. The secondary is pretty good and that’s about it. They were decimated on the offensive line this offseason and have a severe lack of firepower on offense, and they’ll roll out the worst opening-day quarterback in the NFL whether they choose Nathan “5 interceptions in a half last year” Peterman or Josh “5 interceptions against Nebraska last year” Allen.
Whichever one wins the job gets the Ravens, Chargers, and Vikings defenses the first three weeks. If they survive that, it’s Packers, Titans, Texans, and anything but an 0–6 start feels like a major upset. Buffalo could easily be winless into November.
Under 6 — LOCK
New York Jets
The Jets may be the second best team in the AFC East, but there aren’t any participation trophies. The defense is fine actually, with an improving secondary behind last year’s top-two picks at safety Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye and somehow-in-his-fourth-season head coach Todd Bowles.
The offense is a question mark. The line is really bad, and the backs and receivers are names you know only because they’re all guys you add and drop twice a season on your fantasy waiver wire. But at the end of the day, this Jets season is all about Sam Darnold. Darnold looks like he’ll start, and he’s certainly had some moments, but he isn’t exactly surrounded by game-breakers. Darnold was used to playing with a talent and athleticism advantage every game at USC. The opposite will be true in New York.
The Jets have a very tenable schedule. Their first 10 games are against the Lions, Dolphins, Browns, Jaguars, Broncos, Colts, Vikings, Bears, Dolphins, and Bills. Only the Vikes and Jags look like heavy favorites right now. The Jets could conceivably open the season 3–0, and it’s not hard to see them at 6–4 or even 7–3 if the offense takes under Darnold. The Jets play the Titans, Texans, Packers, and Patriots (x2) in the closing stretch, so they’ll have to find themselves early to have any shot late.
The Jets shouldn’t be pushing for the #1 pick, but they’re probably not going to push for .500 either. Their over/under at 6 feels just about right.
Under 6 — pass
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs season could be over before it even gets started. Tampa will be missing Jameis Winston the first three weeks, leaving retread backup Ryan Fitzpatrick to face the Saints, Eagles, and Steelers as the Bucs stare 0–3 right in the face. Winston returns just in time for road trips against the new-and-improved Bears defense and the Falcons sandwiched around an early bye.
The Bucs had the worst DVOA defense in the league. The offensive line is still bad, the quarterbacking is inconsistent, and rookie RB Ronald Jones finished preseason with 22 yards on 28 carries. There’s little reason to think this team has really improved since last year when Tampa was one of the most consistent teams in the league, which is bad in their case since it means they were just consistently poor.
The Bucs kept head coach Dirk Koetter around despite that, and no one knows why. Koetter is 4-to-1 to be the first coach fired, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him canned during the early bye week if things start inauspiciously. The Bucs are also +800 to win the #1 pick. If the season goes south, Tampa might be the one really bad roster desperately in need of a franchise QB with the Bills, Jets, Cards, Browns, and Raiders all set. They will have every incentive to lose and could be an underdog in all 16 games in this tough conference. It might get ugly.
Under 6.5 — LOCK
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins were one of two NFL teams to finish last season with a bottom-quartile offense and defense. They won 6 games but had a Pythagorean expectation of 4.9 wins. There’s talent pretty much everywhere, but most of the talent has yet to reach expectation.
The league’s forgotten QB Ryan Tannehill is back. Tannehill last played football before Andrew Luck, and he’s never been particularly game-changing, never won more than eight games in a season. Miami opens against the Titans, Jets, and Raiders, so there’s a path to 3–0 that could throw people off the scent early like a year ago when they started 4–2 before finishing 2–8.
The Dolphins are the third AFC East team among the bottom eight, in case you’re wondering how much of a lock the Patriots are to win yet another division title. Say someone offered you a bet — Patriots wins versus the win total for the rest of the division combined. Who ya got?
Under 6.5 — play
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts were my final addition to this list of bottom feeders, despite my love for Andrew Luck. I tried to talk myself into Seattle — a forlorn roster lacking talent with a bad offensive line and no run game relying on a superstar QB to keep them relevant — before realizing I had picked the wrong 2012 draftee.
Andrew Luck is really good, or at least he was really good, winning 11 games each of his first three seasons before 10 wins the last three combined. He’s back after a season away and shouldn’t be a re-injury risk with his shoulder, though the zip hasn’t been there on passes, and he’s already limping through an ankle injury. It may take half a bit for Luck to get back to his peak, if he ever gets there at all.
And it may not matter if the rest of the team is this bad. The Colts are the other team that finished bottom-8 in both offense and defense. Indy might have the worst defense in the league, bottom-6 DVOA two years running. Their linebackers and corners are particularly awful. The offense isn’t much better outside. The line should be improved but will still be bad, and the backs and receivers outside of T.Y. Hilton leave a lot to be desired.
The Colts have a soft schedule, soft enough to be this year’s Titans, a team that isn’t actually good but sneaks into the playoffs anyway. If Luck stays healthy and if becomes a top-5 QB again instead of the guy that lost 12 of his last 22 games, maybe the Colts push .500 or better. But if Luck is anything other than spectacular, this could be the worst team in the league.
Under 7.5 — pass
Oakland Raiders
I hated this Raiders team even before the mind-numbingly stupid Khalil Mack trade. You have exactly one great player and he’s one of the best defenders in the NFL just entering his prime, which makes him a top-25 asset at worst. That’s a blank check guy, one you do whatever you must to keep.
Instead, the Raiders traded away the only good thing on the roster. Oakland’s defense was terrible, and they weren’t exactly good the previous year when the team somehow won 12. Take away Mack and they’re a contender for worst defense in the league. The offense is built around old reused parts and young stars that don’t live up to their billing.
Remember when Derek Carr signed the richest contract in NFL history last summer? He’s been consistently mediocre outside of a bunch of 2016 late comebacks. Amari Cooper continues to underachieve, as does the expensive offensive line. This team isn’t good at passing or stopping the pass, and that feels like a problem in 2018.
But don’t tell that to Jon Gruden, who apparently still thinks he’s coaching in the 90s. Gruden is doing things his way darn it, with a retro staff and outdated decision-making in the front office, so you can only imagine how his offense might look. Oakland is all-in on Carr and Gruden to the tune of $225 million, but it feels like they went all-in on pocket deuces.
Oakland has no home field advantage, they don’t have any money, and you’d think they might be struggling in the morale department too after trading their best player. The Raiders over/under is 8, but this team is not finishing above .500 in any world. They’re +3500 to secure the #1 pick. If enough of us take those odds, maybe we can pool together and get this team to Vegas.
Under 8 — LOCK
Dallas Cowboys
If the Bucs and Cardinals are the two worst teams in the NFC, which team is third worst? It’s not enough else in the NFC South, and everyone in the NFC North looks solid. Maybe it’s the Seahawks. But it’s probably one of the teams in the East, and it just might be Dallas.
Dallas had the season from hell with the Ezekiel Elliott suspension and all the injuries, but the team got worse and the injuries have already begun anew. The vaunted line is already ailing, and if that one clear strength goes, the rest could get ugly. Elliott could be facing 7- and 8-man fronts with Dez Bryant and Jason Witten gone. No one’s afraid of Allen Hurns, Cole Beasley, Michael Gallup. Zeke can’t do it on his own if the blocking doesn’t hold up, and Dak Prescott hasn’t lived up to billing when he has to do it himself.
The defense was bad last year, soft up the middle with a weak secondary. This is another team that can’t pass or stop the pass in 2018. They also made the odd choice to move on from longtime kicker Dan Bailey, a strength of a terrific special teams, and that loss could be felt on both field goals and kickoffs.
Dallas starts the year against the Panthers, Giants, Seahawks, Lions, Texans, Jaguars, and Redskins. There are no sure losses, but Dallas might be the less talented team in every matchup. After a bye, Dallas plays the Titans, Eagles, and Falcons, and they still have the Saints and Eagles waiting in December. It’s a relentless schedule. If the Cowboys struggle to something like 2–5 early, it’s not inconceivable that Jason Garrett could finally get his long overdue pink slip. Garrett is +1700 to be the first coach fired.
Oh, and remember that banged up offensive line? If they slip and Dak or Zeke gets hurt too, get ready for starting QB Cooper Rush and RB Rod Smith. Put either of those guys in, and this team is staring 3–13 right in the face.
Under 8.5 — LOCK
Four of our five season-long over/under locks fall into this bottom feeders category with Dallas, Oakland, Tampa, and Buffalo unders leading the way. The Dolphins under is a solid play, too. We’ll pass on the Jets, Colts, and Cards lines, with all three overs easy enough to build a scenario around.
The Browns did not make the list, though they were in and out, and the Seahawks started here but seemed more clickbait than reality. Cincinnati and Washington were other considerations and could slide into range if things move in the wrong direction.
You can read about a few of those teams here in Part II, the eight NFL teams moving in the wrong direction. See you there!
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