The Packers’ top priority in the 2024 NFL Draft is not their top offseason priority
More important business needs to occur first
With the 2024 NFL Draft two months away and the Super Bowl now behind us, all 32 NFL teams’ offseason priorities are now at the forefront. But the draft, as important as it is, is not the most important factor in determining the Green Bay Packers’ success in 2024.
The number one priority: Retain the one man that makes the entire offense go.
Any guesses?
Stupid question. Of course you know I’m talking about Aaron Jones.
When Aaron Jones plays for the Packers, it’s like a switch is flipped. There is no doubt that he is the straw that stirs the drink.
No problem, then, right? Jones is under contract for the next season. Jones is heading into the final year of the four-year, $48 million deal he signed in 2021, and tweaked to be more team-friendly last offseason. Problem solved.
Except … a few flies are in the ointment. Jones is 29, which is one year past the largely believed expiration date for running backs in the NFL. Case in point: Jones himself. After playing in all 17 Packers games in 2022, AJ missed six games across the 2023 season, due to injuries. There is no way to not assume this is the beginning of the end of AJ as a season-long, down-in and down-out dominant force.
An important distinction: The beginning of the end is not the end. Jones is not done yet and the Packers need his influence on their offense in 2024. Look at his late-season productivity: Jones broke out late in the regular season and into the playoffs with five straight 100-yard games and three rushing scores.
Gold zone: In the playoff win over Dallas, Jones ran for 118 yards on 21 carries (5.6 YPC) and scored three touchdowns to lead the Packers to a surprisingly easy playoff road victory. Jones remains a top producer in the outlet-receiver role and is stellar as a pass protector. Don’t take my word for it. Take it from Jordan Love:
Again, Jones is under contract but recent history tells us a renegotiation is imminent. Jones already restructured his contract last offseason and took a pay cut from $16 million to $11 million. He has a base salary of $11.1 million for 2024 and a $17.6 million cap hit. The Packers will try to reduce those numbers this offseason. That’s going to be delicate. They need to not alienate the lynchpin of the offense while not going off the charts for perceived positional value. While he tore it up in the playoffs, Jones amassed a mere three touchdowns this past regular season. That will not help his case in terms of leverage, but Green Bay must be careful about asserting a decline. His late season performance is the real story.
It’s already been decided he’s not worth $16 million a season. Is he worth $11 million? More or less this year? Can they agree amicably? Jones knows his days are numbered. How much does he need to demand to make now? Tough negotiations with other star NFL players, Packers or otherwise, have been known to leave bruises that only heal when a player moves on. Green Bay need not incur the wrath of Jones, please. Not now. Hopefully, not ever.
In his end-of-season press conference, Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said he “absolutely” expects running back Aaron Jones to be back with the Packers in 2024. That is excellent news, if it is not baloney. It could be baloney, but I trust it is not. Jones is too impactful both on the field and off to move on from at this juncture.
For the entire regular season, Jones averaged a mediocre-plus 4.6 yards per carry for 656 rushing yards (his fewest since his rookie year in 2017). He delivered only two rushing TDs for the second straight season and one regular season TD receptions (30 catches for 233 yards). Missing six games and being limited in several others tell the story here … right up until week 16 when the old AJ was back in healthy form.
Conservatively, a healthy Jones in 2024 (not a given or even probable) is a 1250 yards-from-scrimmage player. How much money can two sides safely project covers injury losses? Doing right by Aaron Jones is the most important move the Packers can make in the coming months. Can the Packers screw up the relationship they have with their most important offensive player that does not play quarterback? Indeed. See examples, Rodgers, Aaron and Adams, Davante, for recent context. Did the Packers step on a few toes with Rodgers and Adams at the ends of their tenures in Green Bay? Unquestionably. Was it one-sided and the players remain blameless? Hardly. What happened is the relationships soured. At present, it appears the attitude of Aaron Jones remains as sweet as can be. That should not be undervalued. Jones is beloved in the locker room and devastating between the white lines.
How the Packers handle Jones this offseason will set the stage for how well the offense performs in 2024, more so than any other positional add the Packers can and will make as the offseason unfolds. Let’s compare needs. The Packers need:
A running back. Or two. High draft priority? No. The science is in and drafting running backs high is not advisable: Really good running backs have been proven over the years to be available at all levels of the draft. Jones is a fifth-round pick. Running back, as much or more than any other position, have notoriously short windows of maximum effectiveness. But the Packers need some new running backs, especially if Aaron Jones is RB1. He’s not going to be a lead dog all season. Nor should he be. The 2023 campaign proved he is best deployed in healthy bursts.
So, the situation aligns perfectly the Packers’ needs and best solution: Draft some mid-round, scheme-fit running backs to take the load off of Jones. Running backs are also believed to be more easily integrated into an offensive scheme than other positions that require more experience and nuance to be fully functional (guard, tackle, tight end, wide receiver). Running instincts are there if you’re getting drafted. Core skills to prove you belong are picking up pass protection and catching outlet passes.
That being said, I don’t think Jahmyr Gibbs was a mistake in the first round by the Detroit Lions. How great would the Packers 2024 offense and future be with Aaron Jones, a new rookie Jahmyr Gibbs-type and another young developmental running back in the mix? The mind boggles. I’m suggesting the Packers can get their Gibbs type in round three or possibly later. Watch Gibbs in 2024: He is special. Watch a reasonable facsimile of Gibbs backing up Aaron Jones in 2024: Magical. And ideal for the future.
Safety: If there is one position on the defense that most closely mirrors running back in terms of short shelf life, demanding versatile athleticism and is often underpaid compared to other positions, it’s safety. But here is a time and place where a high draft pick is not insane. The Packers need a whole new set of safeties. Not only because their top three veteran safeties (Darnell Savage, Jonathan Owens and Rudy Ford) are now free agents, but also because of their new defensive scheme, soon to be implemented by new defensive coordinator Hero Von Superman, I mean NotJoeBarry, sorry, that’s not right … Jeff Hafley. That’s the one.
Hafley is said to be pivoting from the Packers’ emphasis on stopping passing attacks with mostly two-high safety looks, to a more single-gap, penetrating front that drops a safety into the box more often. This will require a single-high uber safety of uncommon athleticism, instincts and hopefully the ability to be in three places at once. The Packers may have a fit for that role in Savage, which if all goes well, would seem him return to the crazy fast, wild-man prominence he displayed in college in a defensive scheme that better suits his talents. But it remains to be seen if the Packers are interested in and can entice him to return.
A couple of draft picks, including a high pick, are coming regardless of whether Savage returns or not. A first-round pick of a safety is almost as rare and dicey as a running back. (The only other scrimmage role that gets less love in the first round than RB and safety is center. Remember: Fullbacks don’t exist anymore.) The best play: Draft a safety high, draft another safety and maybe a mid-level (salary-wise) veteran FA. Ford or Owens will not be expensive if the Packers want another veteran body for continuity, but neither will be a preferred starter. Off the table: A trade or a big-bucks free agent.
Receiver: No. There is no need to draft a receiver high. The Packers won’t pass on a value fit if a highly regarded receiver falls in the draft, but this is not a priority. The outcry will be enormous if the Packers pay for a veteran.
Tight end: No. Like at receiver, the present and future are set. The top two slots are known and TE3 & TE4 can be acquired through mid-to-low draft picks, the return of Tyler Davis, Ben Sims and/or a bargain veteran.
Tackle: Riddle me this. If the Packers do not have Aaron Jones, what happens to the offense in 2024? If the Packers do not have a brand-new first-round pick offensive tackle, what happens to the offense in 2024? If the former, the Packers offense has a huge hole. They will scuffle along at least through the early season and end what was excellent balance and chemistry during the latter half of 2023. If the latter option (no new stud tackle) the Packers offense will be what it was to end the 2023 season.
And that was damn good.
The offensive line were the unsung heroes of the Packers’ mid-season offensive turnaround. Zach Tom solidified his role as a find at right tackle. Rasheed Walker proved his worth at left tackle and the arrow remains pointing up. The offense, led up front by Walker, Elgton Jenkins, Jason Myers, Sean Rhyan / Jon Runyan, and Tom are arguably one of the best offensive lines (especially related to pass blocking) in the NFL. Run it back with the top five here and the offense will continue to hum.
Can the Packers improve the OL? They’ll certainly try and the right first-round pick would not be a bad move. This draft will see a return to Brian Gutekunst doubling down or tripling down on offensive linemen for development and depth, after taking a break on that in 2023.
Cornerback? Always. Draft a stud player every year if you can find him. Style fit is huge. Nickel role too as Keishawn Nixon is yet another free agent. Load up at cornerback every year, even though the top three slots are spoken for (Jaire Alexander, Carrington Valentine and Eric [fingers-crossed] Stokes). Draft all the way. Draft high and draft often.
Edge? Always. Draft a stud player every year if you can find him. Depth took a hit with Kingsley Enagbare suffering a devastating knee injury in late 2023 and Preston Smith is at the expensive and not-for-long career stage.
Defensive tackle? No need to reinvest in a high draft pick in April given the performances of Kenny Clark, Devonte Wyatt, Colby Wooden and Karl Brooks. Take a stud if one falls in the second or third round, but save high draft capital otherwise. No trades, no high-priced free agents. Maybe a mid-tier free agent if Hafley has identified a specific scheme fit player that he needs.
Inside Linebacker: One is needed, but it would be unwise to use a high draft pick on this role. DeVondre Campbell is likely gone, but Isaiah McKenzie is a capable fill-in and mid-round or later picks can do the job.
The draft is coming and the draft will fill in the other identifiable holes on the 2024 Packers roster. Free agency will likely play a small supporting role. For now, it’s time to do right by Jones.
Will Aaron Jones return to the Green Bay Packers offense in 2024? That is the biggest offseason question the Packers must answer. Will he be a factor in all 17 games and a (let’s call it) likely playoff run? Almost certainly no. But Green Bay must get what they can from him and build up the running back room around him with additions (at least two draft picks) and possible other bargain free agent additions.
That is job №1 for the Green Bay Packers offseason. Bring back a happy, well-adjusted Aaron Jones.
