Week 17 NFL picks against the spread
An ugly slate of games could surprise with a Panthers-Falcons showdown and Ravens, 49ers, and Redskins best bets
Week 17 is here, but it forgot to bring an interesting slate of games with it. The NFL changed its scheduling a few years ago so every Week 17 game is a divisional battle in hopes of making the games more competitive and meaningful, but it didn’t work this time. There’s only one game on the schedule that matters to both teams, with a slate so light the NFL cancelled Sunday Night Football to avoid embarrassing TV numbers on New Year’s Eve.
Week 17 is, more than anything else, all about incentives. What teams need a win, who prefers a loss, and which ones are already mentally on vacation? Let’s sort through some motives and pick 16 winners and 12 playoff teams…
Nothing at stake but pride
Indianapolis -4 vs Houston
There’s something seriously wrong with you if you are betting this game, or watching it, for that matter. The Colts are probably locked into their №3 pick and don’t really need to fret on a high pick with Andrew Luck in tow, and Houston doesn’t own their first round pick anyways, so neither team really needs a loss. The Texans are 1–8 in games Deshaun Watson doesn’t start. Indy is 3–12. But Houston lost all but two of those games by double digits while the Colts have played nine one-score games, so sure, let’s take them.
Detroit -6.5 vs Green Bay
One of life’s surest gambling rules is that the Packers getting shut out at Lambeau means they are really bad. Green Bay might actually be lucky Rodgers was hurt this year, because it probably covered up a poorly coached terribly managed roster that has been mediocre all season. Detroit is 7–1 against sub-.500 teams and won by two scores at Lambeau already, and Green Bay doesn’t have a secondary so it’s time for Stafford to pad his stats.
Dallas -2.5 at Philadelphia
The Eagles haven’t announced they’re resting their players, but there’s nothing to play for here. Dallas would just love to run up the score and head into the offseason confident their 9–7 season missed the playoffs only because of the Zeke suspension.
Kansas City +3.5 at Denver
This is actually an interesting game, if only because we finally get to see Pat Mahomes and Paxton Lynch in action. How bad is Lynch if it takes him until Week 17 of a lost Denver season in his sophomore year to see the field over Brock Osweiler and Trevor Siemian? Lynch might be playing for any chance of a future in Denver. Win and maybe he gets next year’s job and drops Denver out of the top 10 draft picks. Lose and the Broncos might have a top five pick and find a new man for the job. And wouldn’t it be fun to see Mahomes light up the scoreboard and send Chiefs into existential quarterback crisis mode after Alex Smith put up an MVP performance all season?
Playoff teams that need a win
Minnesota -11.5 vs Chicago
It’s not very Minnesota to win this game and take care of business, but this is not your usual Vikings team. Minnesota is 7–0 against sub-.500 teams, winning by more than 14 points a game on average. Trubisky has thrown for under 200 yards in eight of 11 starts, and there’s just not much reason to believe the Bears will be able to move the ball much here. The Vikings have won five of six against the Bears and should take care of business and secure their first round bye here.
New York Jets +15.5 at New England
The Patriots clinch the AFC 1-seed with a win. They’ve won 11 of 13 against the Jets, so you have to figure they get the win here. But New York has only lost by this margin twice this year in a surprisingly feisty season, and seven of the last eight meetings between these teams were either one-score affairs or Jets wins. New England will do just enough to get by.
New Orleans -7 at Tampa Bay
The Bucs have actually been scrappy over the last month, with four straight one-score losses to teams still in the playoff race when they played. But the Saints have everything to play for here. A win gets them a 3- or 4-seed and a home playoff game, while a loss probably sends them to Los Angeles instead, where they just lost a month ago. New Orleans has won 10 of 12 against Tampa and the Bucs are better off losing and keeping their top-5 pick. As long as that line stays at seven, the Saints look good.
Cleveland +11.5 at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh has won 31 of the last 35 against the Browns, and Cleveland’s last win in Pittsburgh featured Tim Couch and Tommy Maddox and happened 14 years ago. Add all that to 0–15 and the Steelers needing a win for the 1-seed and this one seems easy. But Pittsburgh never relishes the easy ones. They have seven wins by one score this year, and there are some questionable motives at play here. Cleveland has nothing to gain by losing and would surely love to avoid 0–16, and the Steelers could really use some rest for their banged up team and could call off the hounds early if the scoreboards show New England safely securing the 1-seed. Hope for Cleveland?
Wild Card hopefuls
Buffalo -3 at Miami
This strange Dolphins team has wins this season against the Falcons, Chargers, and Titans, so they are weirdly responsible for almost the entire wild card picture this weekend. But they’re not in it themselves, and Buffalo is 6–2 against teams already eliminated from the playoffs. With a chance to end the longest playoff drought in the NFL at 18 seasons, you have to hope the Bills find a way.
Oakland +8 at Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers won the last four meetings between these teams in L.A… back in the 90s when the Raiders were the home team. What’s the more likely scenario for the wonky Chargers at this point — a dominant 20-point win to get to 9–7 and the team no one wants to face but doesn’t have to, or everyone else loses to open the door and the Chargers blow it in the final seconds? With injuries piling up, we’ll count on the Chargers finding a way to blow this.
Arizona +9.5 at Seattle
Seattle is in the playoffs with a win and an Atlanta loss, but this just doesn’t feel like much of a playoff team. They’ve scored seven points in their last three first halves, and they’ve lost three of four at home. Now Arizona coach Bruce Arians is calling CenturyLink the Cardinals other “home field,” and he’s won three of four there in his time with Arizona. This could be the end for Arians and for Larry Fitzgerald, and this proud team would love nothing more than to take Seattle down with them.
Hey look, two real games!
Tennessee -3 vs Jacksonville
Okay fine, maybe only one real game. The Jaguars are locked into the AFC 3-seed but haven’t announced any plans to rest players yet. This is a proud team that pouts when they ruin a shutout late, and you have to love that, but the smart thing here is to let Leonard Fournette and the defense get healthy and try again next week. A Titans win probably gives us this game as a rematch next week, so all the more reason for the Jags to not show their cards and let Tennessee win to avoid a more dangerous Chargers team.
Carolina +4 at Atlanta
This should be the best game of an ugly Sunday slate, with both teams in need of a win. Carolina can still get as high as the 2-seed, though they could also know by about halftime (with a Minnesota win and a blowout Saints lead) that they’re locked into the 5-seed, so that’s a bit dangerous. Still, Atlanta has only covered this meager spread three times since September and they just haven’t been the same team as a year ago, with only one win against a 9-win team against a Saints team missing Alvin Kamara. Carolina has played in ten one-score games, including each of their last five. These teams hate each other — remember the Atlanta in-game selfie when they ruined the Panthers perfect season two years ago? Guarantee you Carolina does. Feels like this one comes down to the wire.
Week 17 best bets
Baltimore -9.5 vs Cincinnati
Back to the well one last time on the Ravens, who are almost certainly this year’s good bad team. Baltimore is 0–5 against teams still in the playoff race but 9–1 against everyone else, seven of those wins by double digits. They need a win to make the playoffs, and Marvin Lewis and the Bengals just need to make it to the offseason.
San Francisco -3 at Los Angeles Rams
I can’t believe I ever doubted Handsome Jimmy G. The 49ers started 0–9 and might not even draft in the top ten with another win here. We told you a month ago the 49ers might shake up the playoff hunt, and they’ve done more than that. They can close out the year with a five-game Garoppolo win streak. The Rams have already announced they’re resting Goff, Gurley, et al, and it makes sense. A loss here hurts an opponent’s draft pick and cap room (pay that Jimmy G man his money), and it also helps the Rams avoid Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan in round one and sets up a possible trip to Philly in round two. Sean McVay isn’t about to be coach of the year for being an idiot. The Rams are more than happy to let the Jimmy G love continue.
Washington -3 at New York Giants
The Giants should be eager to lose and secure the №2 pick, and they’ve been terrible all season. Washington hasn’t been as bad as you think — they’ve just played a brutal schedule. They’re actually 5–0 against teams under .500, and this is one last chance for Kirk Cousins to put up flashy stats against a terrible defense before he becomes the man of the hour in free agency.
Week 16 record: 5–10–1
Season record: 120–110–11
Best bets: 28–18–1
Locks: 2–1
Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, humor, pop culture, and life musings. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.
