Will the real 2017 NFL MVP please stand up?
Let’s crown an MVP and send 2 Conference Championship winners to the Super Bowl
The best NFL Sunday of the season is finally here. It’s Conference Championship Sunday … and we’re apparently spending it with Nick Foles, Case Keenum, and Blake Bortles. So much for this being a quarterback’s league. Nick, Case, and Blake are one member short of the next hit boy band. They’re the quarterback coaches at your local community college. They’re the cousins you get stuck with at the Thanksgiving kids table. They’re the analysts for a Mountain West game on ESPN 8 the Ocho that can’t get their words right and just sit there silently at 2 a.m. And they’re leading their teams out for the biggest Sunday in football. How did we get here?
Who did you expect to be playing this Sunday when the season started? The Patriots, probably, but joined by teams like the Falcons, Packers, Seahawks, or Steelers — you know, the ones with the MVP quarterbacks. Instead we have a 40-year-old junk-food virgin and three dudes Jeff Fisher didn’t think were even starting quarterbacks (lies — Fisher would’ve started Blake Bortles for like 14 straight years).
What happened to football in 2017? Are quarterbacks not the most valuable players any more? Are defense and versatility the key to the game now?
Let’s dive into the 2017 MVP race, then pick our Super Bowl combatants. Home teams have won eight straight Conference Championship games, and they’ve covered seven of those eight. Will that trend continue for the Patriots and Eagles, or will we get another miracle Sunday from the Vikings or Jaguars?
The non-MVP candidates
Case Keenum, Minnesota
Keenum went 12–3 as a third stringer and threw the biggest pass in franchise history. He also finished with 22 TDs, tied for 12th most with Derek Carr and Dak Prescott. His name will be etched into my heart forever, but he is not an MVP.
Jared Goff, L.A. Rams
Goff finished top five in TDs, yards per attempt, and fewest interceptions, but he’s a good reminder that stats are not everything. His numbers are better than Brees or Roethlisberger, but he’s not more valuable and not even the most valuable player on his own offense.
Alex Smith, Kansas City
Smith was AFC Jared Goff, with a sparkling 26–5 TD-INT ratio, more than 4,000 yards, and 8.0 yards per attempt. Like Goff, he benefited from an offensive scheme that made him look good and an outstanding back atop the league’s rushing stats. Smith also lost six of seven games midseason, so no.
Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh
Brown finished top five in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs despite missing two games. It was also his third best season in the past four years, and his numbers aren’t that much better than Keenan Allen. Brown is an absolute superstar, but he might be Pittsburgh’s Klay Thompson.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh
Remember when Big Ben threw a game-winning TD to Jesse James and it looked like Pittsburgh would be the AFC 1-seed and Ben would be MVP? Roethlisberger tied for the fourth most interceptions with 14, including five against Jacksonville, and he was bad to awful the first half of the season.
Drew Brees, New Orleans
Brees was a trendy MVP late in the season and it made no sense. His 23 TDs ranked outside the top ten, and he finished with his fewest yards and TDs since 2005. Brees had just three 300-yard games and only one with more than two TDs. Just because Brees had a run game and a defense this year and won more games does not mean he was suddenly “more valuable.”
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans
Brees might not have even been the most valuable Saint. Kamara was a rookie sensation. He finished second in the league with 14 TDs, and he seemed to have two or three game-breaking highlight-reel plays every week. Kamara piled up 1901 all purpose yards, a ridiculous nine yards per touch. We saw just how valuable he was when he missed most of a Thursday night game against the Falcons and the New Orleans offense went in the tank.
The Honorable Mentions
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
The Packers went 4–2 with Rodgers and 3–7 without him. They scored more than ten points a game fewer with him sidelined and only managed to beat the Bucs, Bears, and Browns, two of those wins in overtime. Rodgers averaged almost 300 yards a game and paced to 43 TDs. He’s really good.
LeVeon Bell, Pittsburgh
Bell was an absolute workhorse. He averaged 27 touches, by far the most in the league, with at least 20 touches in thirteen games. He finished top three in rushing yards and TDs and was somehow tenth in the entire league in receptions. But he didn’t hit 2000 combined yards, and he was one 8-yard rush away from finishing the season under four yards per carry. The numbers just don’t quite add up, and Pittsburgh’s Triple Bs cannibalize each other’s MVP votes, but Bell is the Most Valuable Steeler.
Pick a defender from Jacksonville or Minnesota
Look, a defender will never win MVP. We want to see teams score, and the best defenders live in the absence of stats, so good that teams have to game plan to avoid them. But here we are with the league’s best three defenses among the NFL’s final four. Can we give Jalen Ramsey and Calais Campbell some credit? Can Everson Griffen get some love? And for crying out loud, can we put Harrison Smith in the Pro Bowl? Defenders are humans, too.
The Top 5
5. Philip Rivers, L.A. Chargers
Rivers dug the Chargers out of an 0–4 hole to make a torrid run at the playoffs and finished 62 yards from leading the league in passing. He was also awful twice against Kansas City to bury the Chargers’ playoff hopes, and he played in that 0–4 start too.
4. Todd Gurley, L.A. Rams
Gurley finished top-two in RB rushing yards, rushing TDs, receiving yards, and receiving TDs, leading the league by a mile with 19 touchdowns. He had almost 2100 yards from scrimmage and was at his best in L.A.’s biggest games against the Jaguars, Eagles, and Seahawks. Gurley was awesome, and he was absolutely the 2017 Fantasy MVP. But quarterbacks are just too valuable.
3. Tom Brady, New England
Brady led the league in passing yards and finished third in TDs. He had a 32–8 TD-INT ratio, went 13–3, and had the best season ever for a 40-year-old. But this is not Most Valuable Old Guy. Brady had six games with zero or one TD, and he didn’t finish top-five in completion percentage or yards per attempt. He had only five great games, all but one against bad teams, and he led the Pats to losses in three* of their four biggest games (*counting Jesse James).
He also might not be the most valuable Patriot. In two games without Rob Gronkowski, Brady threw two TDs and three picks, struggling to a 19–14 win against the Bucs and losing to the Dolphins. Brady might be the GOAT and he might win yet another Super Bowl, but he was not this season’s MVP.
2. Russell Wilson, Seattle
Wilson’s 34 passing TDs led the league. He also had 586 rushing yards, which not only led his team, it was actually more than twice as much as any teammate. No one in the NFL did more for his offense than Russell Wilson. He led Seattle in every passing category along with rushes, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns. He had eight games with 3+ TDs. He turned into the Terminator in the fourth quarter. He had a hand in all but one of Seattle’s offensive touchdowns the entire season!!
No one did more for their team in 2017 than Russell Wilson — but that team lost three of their last four to miss the playoffs. Unfortunately for Wilson, we already gave an MVP award to a dude named Russell who did everything for a team that just wasn’t that great.
The real 2017 NFL MVP
1. Carson Wentz, Philadelphia
You’re shocked, I know.
Wentz finished one off the league lead with 33 TDs despite playing only 12.5 games, and he threw just seven picks. He led the Eagles to an 11–2 record, seven of those wins by double digits. No player was more consistent than Carson Wentz. He never threw more than one interception in a game and had only three games with one TD, none TD-less. Wentz was awesome, and he seemed to have two or three holy crap plays a week, plays only two or three guys in the world can make.
So why should missing three games cost Wentz a deserving MVP, especially when he was so good the first 13 games he could’ve sat out the last two games resting as the 1-seed anyway? And look at the Eagles without Carson Wentz. They scored 34 against the Giants, then 34 the last three games combined against the Raiders, Cowboys, and Falcons. They were the first home underdog 1-seed in history. With Wentz, the Eagles were Super Bowl favorites. Without him, they’re a watered-down version of the Jaguars.
And if all that wasn’t enough, Wentz apparently coached the Rams to a huge turnaround and got engaged to Meghan Markle in his spare time.
Carson Wentz was the 2017 NFL MVP. And we might find out just how valuable he was this weekend. Let’s get to the Championship Week picks…
New England -7.5 vs Jacksonville
The line actually started at -9, so that means the public has spent the entire week talking themselves into Blake Bortles. Uh oh.
Are we so busy getting excited about Jacksonville’s 45 points last week that we’re ignoring the 42 they allowed? What about the 44 last month to the 49ers, or how about the 24 at home against a Seahawks offense that couldn’t move the ball on anyone?
Jacksonville was downright dominant against opposing receivers this year, but they were average against tight ends and a poor against running backs out of the backfield. Sound like any team you know?
Here’s the game plan for the Jaguars: beat up old man Brady and hope he clams up in the cold, then ask Blake Bortles to make five to seven big plays against a leaky secondary. Think about some of the old quarterbacks you’ve seen in the playoffs over the last decade — a couple hits early and they’re not the same the rest of the game, especially if it’s freezing cold. Brady is going to have to hold up against two of the fiercest defenses in the league to walk away with another Super Bowl title. But is Jacksonville the team to beat them?
Seven times previously, the Patriots were the AFC 1-seed. They made the Super Bowl in six of those seasons. Of course, the one loss was to a feisty Jets team led by a mean defense and quarterbacked by Mark Sanchez, so maybe there’s hope for these Jaguars still.
Since New England’s bye week, the Patriots have won games by 25, 25, 18, 20, 3, 21, 20, and 21. They’ve averaged 31 points a game during that stretch, the only loss coming without Rob Gronkowski.
Maybe Gronk leaves the game injured. Maybe Brady gets hit early and his age finally shows. Or maybe the Patriots score a bunch of points, Bortles can’t score against a Bill Belichick defense, and you get a nice Sunday afternoon nap.
The pick:
New England 30, Jacksonville 10
Minnesota -3 at Philadelphia
It’s truly impossible to overstate how cathartic last week was for Vikings fans in a game that had everything.
There was revenge against the Saints, redemption after the 2010 Favre letdown. There was an early Case Keenum rolling-right-across-his-body Favresque throw that was actually completed. There was a throwback to the Seahawks playoff game two years ago when a stingy Vikings defense dominated all the way before the opposing star QB made one huge late drive, only this time the Vikings made the kick. There was the Vikings making a field goal, vanquishing Minnesota ghosts from 1999 and 2016.
And of course there was the Minneapolis Miracle. Vikings fans are plenty familiar with miracle walk-off touchdown passes, thank you very much. There was Josh McCown to Nate Poole on the final play of the 2003 season as the 3–12 Cardinals knocked the Vikings out of the playoffs. There’s the Antonio Freeman “HE DID WHAT?!” play they show on every Monday Night Football highlight reel ever. And of course there was the original Hail Mary in 1975, a clear Drew Pearson push-off that might actually have killed Fran Tarkenton’s dad watching at home, stopping the Vikings from four consecutive Super Bowl losses. We could’ve been the Bills!!
But now we have the Minneapolis Miracle. Keenum to Diggs, 61 yards, 0:00 on the clock. Even longtime Vikings hater Joe Buck couldn’t contain himself. It’s five days later, and I just now got my voice back.
All those videos you saw of Vikings fans freaking out? They were washing off a literal lifetime of disappointment. They were in shock. Vikings fans have never had a moment like this. Even the nice moments have always been followed by heartbreak that took away the good memories. Keenum to Diggs is forever.
I ran around my apartment yelling, bouncing off the walls before I ran out into the snow in my socks and screamed into the night sky, eventually settling into my couch shaking and sobbing. I took my first ever happy shower after a Vikings game, a strange, wonderful feeling. I’ve watched the play about 387 times this week. When I close my eyes, I still see Case Keenum leading 66,655 Vikings fans in a Skol Vikings clap.
But that was last week. What comes after a miracle?
Lucky for you, I already did the research, and it turns out it’s a lot more momentum than emotional letdown. Seven NFL teams that won in a miracle playoff finish hit the road the next week, all of them as underdogs, and four won again, each in dominant fashion. Many of the miracle teams eventually came up short of a Super Bowl victory, often in heartbreaking fashion, but the carryover effect of the miracle either had no effect or helped the miracle team.
Where exactly does Philadelphia have the edge here? Minnesota has the better quarterback, better receivers, a better defensive line, a better secondary, and a better coach. The Eagles have the edge at offensive line and in the run game, and they’re at home. They’re also the deeper team, but that may not matter unless injuries pile up.
And speaking of injuries, the Eagles have been remarkably healthy this season … outside of left tackle Jason Peters and, of course, Carson Wentz. This feels like the week they’ll really miss those two. Everson Griffen is going to make Eagles fans really long for Peters, and Nick Foles just can’t create those wow plays like Wentz did all season.
The Eagles have scored 11.3 points per game the last three weeks under Foles, and they haven’t faced a defense like Minnesota’s all season. Of course the Vikings haven’t faced anything like the Eagles either, but it feels like Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen should find some room against this secondary.
Like the Jaguars, the Eagles winning game plan is to blitz the heck out of Keenum and hope they rattle him early and force him into some mistakes (And so help me God, if Sam Bradford makes an appearance …). If the Eagles can play a low-scoring game with the lead, they’ll have a shot. If Keenum gets comfortable and the Vikings force Foles to play from behind, Philly is in trouble unless they can convince the MVP to play the second half on crutches.
Maybe this is the week Case Keenum finally turns into a pumpkin. But we’ve reverse-jinx picked against the Vikings long enough. The Minneapolis Miracle means a new page in Vikings history. They’re the better team in almost every facet of the game, and they should win and head home for the Super Bowl.
Confidence, baby.
The pick:
Minnesota 23, Philadelphia 16
Playoff record: 3–5
Regular season record: 130–116–11
Best bets: 29–20–1
Locks: 2–1
Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, humor, pop culture, and life musings. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.
