When Can We Hit Reboot? Pt. 5

Weekly Status Report in Bending Covid-19 Curves

by Patrick H. Ruane and Ravi Pamnani, May 4, 2020

This is an ongoing series as two scientists (well, one scientist and one engineer aka, a practical scientist) try to make sense of the Covid-19 pandemic trajectory and try to project its course through various data visualizations. Check out Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4.

Of the countries we have been tacking, Figure 1 shows the 10 best overall performance with respect to containment of Covid-19 cases: China, South Korea, many counries in Europe, but also Australia, New Zealand, and Israel, top the list.

Figure 1. Counties with Best Containment of Covid-19

Many critics have been skeptical of China’s containment success, believing that they must be under-reporting the cases and deaths. This would imply the Covid-19 is more deadly and the virus that causes it more virulent (we’ll ignore that some of these same individuals argue for re-opening the US despite a lack of containment here).

China says the first case was Nov 30, 2019, and the 40th case was early Jan. This is completely consistent with our exponential growth models. If you look at Japan’s data (a country with good early records), Japan went from it 1st case on Jan 16, 2020, to its 41st case on Feb 14th, 2020 (30 days). This is completely consistent with the China data.

In short, there is no Conspiracy.

Also, other countries have been able to achieve containment akin to China’s — countries with Western-style democracy (Figure 2). For those that are not fans of the CCP, what about turning to Austria, Australia, and New Zealand and admitting that perhaps we can learn something from them instead of expending energy trying to discredit their data?

Figure 2. China’s containment curve vs. Australia, Austria, and New Zealand

Figure 3 below highlights the worst-performing countries last week. New additions to our analysis include South America, and so we can see how some of these countries stack up (see below).

The US is notably in better control than 4 weeks ago (we’ve moved to a bumpy linear growth as opposed to exponential), but we have not yet achieved Chinese- or European-style containment. It would seem China has more in common with Western democratic nations when it comes to healthcare and public health, and the US has more in common with autocratic ones.

Figure 3. Countries with worst-performing Covid-19 containment

The cautionary tale from Singapore is highlighted below in Figure 4. This is a scenario that has the potential to play out in a number of states in the US that are re-opening without thoughtful controls in place. Singapore took their eye off the ball (migrant worker dormitories), and their initial excellent work was wasted.

The sacrifice we have all been making for nearly 2 months will go out the window if we don’t re-open thoughtfully, carefully, and at the right level of containment.

Figure 4. Singapore is out of control right now

European containment of Covid-19 is tracking nicely in Figure 5, as the vast majority of countries are still in a downward slope with consistently reduced new cases.

Figure 5. European containment of Covid-19

The so-called Swedish experiment continues (Figure 6). While some are claiming that their performance is indicative that a non-lockdown approach can work, the data tells a different story. While they are out of exponential growth , new Covid-19 cases are still rising at a consistent clip. Some reports from inside the country have stated that their healthcare system is close to full capacity. They are walking the razor’s edge.

While Sweden doesn’t have a mandated lockdown, they have many strong “recommendations” from a respected public health authority for working from home, no public gatherings, no home care visits for the elderly, etc. Foot traffic is down in city centers from 50%-90%. This approach assumes citizens are socially responsible and rational actors. In the US, this approach clearly won’t work, given the beach traffic attendance we saw last week.

Figure 6. Is the Swedish trajectory closer to other Scandinavian countries or Russia?

We have added a few countries in South America (Figure 7). Not looking so hot for them.

Figure 7. South America still in exponential growth phase.

Not enough data in Africa yet, stay tuned.

United States

A handful of states continue to show promising signs of containment in the US (Figure 8). Louisiana and Washington have the steepest downward curves, with New Jersey not far behind.

New York and Michigan both stumbled this past week. At the risk of beating a dead horse: re-opening too soon and too quickly, without social distancing guidelines being strictly adhered to, will trigger second waves.

Here are the rest of the states we are tracking (Figure 9). New cases in these states show no pattern of stopping, and all are still on exponential growth trends. Talk of re-opening large swaths of the country, when we have achieved nowhere close to the control that European countries (and whether you like it or not, China) is short-sighted and will result in unnecessary spreading of disease and death.

Of course, what is the tradeoff? Are people using fewer hospital services because of the lockdown? One report showed that treatments for coronary blockages (heart attacks) was down 38%. Clearly this is an issue. Stating that this is a reason why communities need to re-open is a false dilemma fallacy. We can and should work to start ramping up non-Covid-19 related healthcare services, especially for emergent or life-threatening conditions, but we don’t need to open all non-essential businesses. Can we be smart and rational and targeted?