Afghan Resistance: A dangerous gamble of Saleh and Massoud Jr at Panjshir
Spies never quit, said the Twitter bio of Amrullah Saleh, the First Vice President of the now-fallen Kabul government.
True to his bio, rather than fleeing the country like President Ashraf Ghani, Saleh went to the last stretch of land in Afghanistan not held by the Taliban — the Valley of Panjshir. From there, he declared himself the caretaker president citing the Afghan constitution and announced a resistance against the Taliban. He is joined by Ahmad Massoud, the son of the famed anti-Taliban leader of yesteryears Ahmad Shah Massoud, under whom Panjshir was never occupied by the Taliban between 1996–2001 when a coalition called the Northern Alliance resisted the Taliban rule.
Their movement has been called National Resistance Front by Massoud Jr in an article published in The Washington Post.
This is, however, 2021, and Massoud Jr is not his father and the Taliban this time is also not the one that his father faced.
For one, Massoud Jr lacks the long fighting experience that marked his father’s life. At 32, what Massoud has is a force trained and equipped in his homeland and a long legacy to build on at the moment. That’s just about it.
Two, the international support the Northern Alliance had under Massoud Sr is absent this time. The regional players are not in a position to provide help, including New Delhi that has been pushed to irrelevance in the ongoing developments. It’s also not clear if there is even any desire on part of New Delhi to help.
State support critical to resist Taliban
In his article exploring why there has not been an equivalent of Massoud Sr’s resistance this time, Kabir Taneja of the Observer Research Foundation noted that insurgencies rely on state support — the Panjshir Resistance is now effectively an insurgency since the Taliban are the dominant national force now.
Massoud Sr’s Northern Alliance received active help from India, Iran, Tajikistan, and at times the United States. Quoting former Indian diplomat Bharath Raj Muthu Kumar who oversaw the Indian efforts, V Sudarshan reported for The Hindu that New Delhi helped them with everything from clothing, packaged food, arms and ammunition to medical treatment.
The medical facilities New Delhi set up in Tajikistan to treat wounded Northern Alliance personnel alone cost $7.5 million.
In the absence of a direct border with Afghanistan, New Delhi has to rely on third countries like Tajikistan to reach Afghanistan and the Central Asian country or other Afghan neighbours are unlikely to allow Indian help to pass through because of the Russian and Chinese shadow — Moscow and Beijing have thrown their weight behind the Taliban with Pakistan.
Taneja noted, “India’s support for a resistance in Afghanistan this time around could become difficult. While Central Asian states are already balking from getting directly embroiled in the Afghanistan crisis, they also face pressures from both China and Russia, which are playing their roles effectively with the Taliban to make sure there is a long-term seal against a US military presence in Afghanistan.”
The Resistance and an inspiring military beginning
Even without international help, the Resistance is not going down quietly. The remnants of the erstwhile Afghan forces that did not surrender, particularly the special forces that helmed much of the meaningful counter-Taliban efforts, are rallying at Panjshir under the flag of the National Resistance Front. It’s not without some success.
The Resistance forces have retaken three districts in Baghlan and one in Parwan provinces from the Taliban, according to multiple reports.
There are also reports that Marshall Abdul Rashid Dostum is planning to join the fight with a force of up to 10,000 fighters and some air assets — likely from Uzbekistan where he and fellow warlord Atta Muhammad Nur are believed to have escaped. Several Afghan pilots also flew into the country with their planes to escape the Taliban and to prevent the Islamist militant group from getting hold of Afghan military aircraft.
According to reports, the Taliban mounted an offensive to retake the Valley of Andarb in Andarab district in Baghlan province, one of the three districts taken by the the Resistance forces. The militants are believed to have since been repulsed.
Among the earliest Resistance-related inputs, first through Russian state-owned news agencies, were claims of a victory over the town of Charikar in Parwan province that connects Kabul with Mazar-i-Sharif and Kunduz in the country’s north through the Salang Pass.
According to multiple reports and a tweet from Saleh, the Resistance forces hold the Pass, which means the connection between Kabul and the country’s north has been snapped. The only way to reach the north now is to bypass the Salang Pass and take the traditional Shibar Pass that takes three days on an average to cross.
The question of air power
Despite this, the odds are stacked against the Resistance. The air power that the Taliban is on the verge of operationalising as they seek to recruit pilots can be a gamechanger as the Resistance has little to no sustainable airpower.
According to a July report from the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) cited by the Defense News’s Valerie Insinna, the Afghan air force had a total of 211 aircraft, with about 167 operational as of June 30.
Estimates suggest up to a quarter of those are likely to be out of bounds of the Taliban as they flew out of the country into neighbouring Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, according to the Air Force Magazine’s Abraham Mahsie.
However, the rest are firmly in the hands of the Taliban and can be operationalised in the short term as soon as they get the pilots.
Maintaining the aircraft in the long term, however, is likely to be an issue as supplies of spares and availability of trained mechanics is choked because of the US withdrawal, but at least maintaining the Soviet-origin aircraft should not be an issue because of support to Taliban for Moscow.
It has been said for years that the Russians are arming the Taliban, ostensibly to check the spillover of jihadist groups into Central Asia at Russia’s doorstep.
The Drive’s Joseph Trevithik has noted that SIGAR numbers do not include planes with the Afghan special forces that operated fixed and rotary wing aircraft of their own. Since much of the former special forces personnel are now converging at the Resistance, it is also believed they are bringing their air assets with them.
A total of 22 fixed wing aircraft and 24 helicopters from Afghanistan have landed in Uzbekistan, according to a statement from the Uzbek government, which is in line with the numbers independently reported by The Drive.
It has been learnt there are efforts on part of the Resistance to try to mobilise aircraft that are out of the country. That would be a major boost if it materialises. A quarter of the air force might not be much for the Taliban state but it would be substantial for the Resistance’s insurgency, at least until the odds start hitting them — the supply lines.
The isolation of Panjshir
Since Panjshir is surrounded by Taliban-held territory and there is not believed to be any external help, the supply of fuel is at the mercy of the Taliban and they are not being merciful. According to Saleh, the fuel and food supplies are already affected in areas held by the Resistance, forcing people to flee to higher grounds — a reference to their stronghold of Panjshir.
Rather than a fortress waging an anti-Taliban campaign like the last time, Panjshir is more of a besieged island this time that’s surrounded by the Taliban from all sides and has no inherent advantage.
This is why the external support is critical for the Resistance. Massoud Jr has said they have been hoarding arms and ammunition for 20 years now. The remnants of the Afghan forces, specially the highly effective special forces, have joined the Resistance with their weapons and air assets, but that will dwindle in case of fighting. How long reserves last with no supplies is for anyone to guess.
Christine Fair of the Georgetown University, an expert on the region, said the chances of the Resistance are bleak.
She said, “The Taliban have an enormous stock of US weapons, inclusive of Blackhawks. The Pakistanis will certainly help them out. The Panjshir held out as it did [between 1996–2001] because it had the help of India, Iran, Tajikistan, and on occasion the US.”
She added, as highlighted earlier, that even New Delhi cannot help even if they want to as their help has to be routed through Tajikistan and Tajiks are unlikely to be onboard.
She further said, “They [Taliban] won the other places because most were willing to surrender rather than be massacred. They are more willing to stand their ground.”
Bill Roggio, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense for Democracies, noted, “In addition to keeping supply lines open, Saleh is staring down the tall task of rebuilding Afghan security forces that were ground down by years of fighting with the Taliban. As former NDS chief, Saleh is in possession of contacts throughout the country. Tens of thousands of former soldiers and NDS personnel are in danger of Taliban reprisals.”
Kabul in Resistance’s line of sight
The Dispatch has learnt there is a line of strategic thinking that one of the aspirational goals of the Resistance forces is to capture the Bagram airbase on the outskirts of Kabul and not very far from the town of Charikar that’s believed to be under their control at the moment.
Charikar, Bagram, and Kabul are on a stretch of 80 kilometers, and if the Resistance gets hold of Bagram, people aware of the terrain believe they can use it as a staging ground, specially for troops that Atta and Dostum would want to bring from Uzbekistan.
“The Bagram airbase essentially serves two objectives, either to defend Kabul or to attack Kabul, and that’s why the Resistance would want to take it,” said a Western special forces veteran in a conversation over Twitter.
“It’s a defensible position and taking it will be a strong show of force for the Resistance and a major embarrassment for the Taliban,” added the veteran.
However, the Talian have deployed their best fighters in and around Kabul, including the Badri 313 unit.
Moreover, in response to reports of around 1,500 special forces personnel joining the Resistance with their armoured vehicles from Khost in the Southeastern Afghanistan, it has been reported the Taliban have deployed their own special forces around Kabul to beef up their defences of the city.
Despite such odds, why is it that they are putting up a resistance?
Military posturing for better positioning in negotiations
One line of thinking is that a tough military posturing is a way to assert themselves strongly in the ongoing negotiations with the Taliban. It was reported earlier that Massoud Jr is seeking a deal for himself but it was clarified on Tuesday morning that negotiations are ongoing on behalf of the National Resistance Front.
The Resistance prefer negotiations but are up for a fight if they have to, said Amrullah Saleh in an interview with India Today’s Gaurav Sawant on Tuesday.
The former spymaster said, “We are ready for meaningful negotiations as well as for resistance. Negotiations should not be a disguise for surrender or allegiance.”
He added they have exchanged conditions but not much progress has been made.
When they have the entire country under their control, why would the Taliban negotiate? Why not just wait out the resistance? One reason to negotiate might be the reputation of the Panjshir — it could never be breached by the Soviets or the Taliban.
The Valley of Panjshir, famed for its natural defences, is guarded by a gorge that makes entry or escape for the invading force difficult as defenders at heights would be at an advantage. But with air assets at their disposal, can’t they simply bypass a ground invasion? That’s tricky as well as the history of Afghanistan has shown throughout that aerial campaigns have not translated into considerable differences on the ground, evident in the failure of Soviets and then the Americans.
However, more than the Taliban’s inclination for talks, it’s the resolve of Amrullah Saleh that is more intriguing. How is he putting up a brave front despite odds stacked against him? Longtime followers are no surprised. They trace a continuity in his words and deeds.
In an interview for the 60 Minutes program, Saleh explained the US decision to withdraw would not mean the end of his efforts.
He said, “If they withdraw, it doesn’t mean I stop. We are very clear on that. We will continue because we are from here. These mountains will remain forever and these rivers will flow forever. It will be great to have them [the US] but if they leave, it won’t be as if we cease to exist.”
In 2001 after the assasination of his former “commander” Ahmad Shah Massoud, Saleh said the movement was bigger than any one individual, including the Lion of Panjshir.
He said, “The decision is that we will fight. We will not surrender. We will fight to our last men on the ground. The resistance was not about Massoud. It was about something much bigger. We will hold.”
The Resistance hopes for the best, prepares for the worst
Despite both sides up in arms against the other and Saleh’s commitment to not bow to “Taliban dictatorship”, talks are going on. Just as this post was going through final edits, reports trickled that a Taliban delegation had arrived in Panjshir to hold talks with Ahmad Massoud.
Massoud Jr’s outreach has been softer than that of Saleh and he appears to be more inclined to compromise among the Resistance leadership.
This difference between Salah’s sharp rhetoric and Massoud Jr’s diplomatic overtures has also led to doubts in some quarters whether the Resistance leadership is on the same footing.
As long as they prefer negotiations and put armed conflict as a last resort, they are on the same footing. Surprisingly, the Taliban also says the same, but their word has means little. It needs to be seen if they walk the talk.
They say it’s Taliban 2.0 that will be liberal to women and minorties, will not repeat the atrocities of their earlier regime, and will not punish those who have fought against them. Their stance on the conditions laid by Massoud Jr will be the test of their commitment — decentralisation of power, women’s rights, and a democratic nature of the government to be formed, according to The National newspaper’s Sulaiman Hakami.
Hakami reports, as many have commented, the humanitarian situation in Panjshir is not sustainable in the long run and that’s why Massoud Jr and the Resistance are up for negotiations and are preferring a diplomatic solution since day one — despite Saleh’s fiery rhetoric.
As they say, hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
Madhur Sharma is an Indian journalist. This is a personal newsblog. Connect on Twitter at @madhur_mrt.
