Relations with China at crossroads, cooperation can’t continue with border tensions: Jaishankar
Meerut: The India-China relationship is at a crossroads and its future trajectory depends on the Chinese commitment to peace at the border, said India’s Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar at a virtual discussion organised by Financial Times and The Indian Express.
The minister said, “The relationship is at a crossroads and which direction it will go depends on whether China adheres to the 1988 consensus and follows through on agreements over the decades.”
“What was very clear last year was that border tensions cannot continue with cooperation in other areas,” said the minister, seemingly in response to Chinese assertion that New Delhi should put the border stand-off aside and continue with other aspects of the relationship.
Jaishankar drew a parallel between the 1962 war and the last year’s situation and highlighted that it took more than two decades to normalise the relationship after the war.
He said, “We had the border conflict of 1962 and it took 26 years to have the first prime ministerial visit [of Rajiv Gandhi] in 1988.
“The first decade of the relationship [after Gandhi’s visit] was spent on stabilising the border. That led to 30 years of peace and tranquility on the border.”
The two countries signed a peace and tranquility agreement in 1993 and a confidence-building measures’ agreement in 1996 regarding the disputed and contested border.
Jaishankar said, “Those agreements essentially stipulated you won’t bring large troops to the border, peace and tranquility will be respected, and there will be no attempt to unilaterally change the status quo.
“The economic relationship followed the stabilisation of the border. Through the ’80s and ’90s, the focus was on the border.”
Once it settled down, other things such as the economic relationship could go on, but last year’s actions by the Chinese went against three decades of this progress.
The minister said, “Now if you disturb peace and tranquility, if you have bloodshed, if there is intimidation, a continuing friction at the border, then, obviously, there is going to be a toll on the relationship.
“What we saw last year was, frankly, China departing from 1988 consensus.”
The tensions came to light last year with clashes at Pangong Tso, a saltwater lake in Eastern Ladakh, and Naku La in Sikkim in the first half of May.
The bloodiest episode in almost half a century came in mid-June when hundreds of troops from both sides bludgeoned each other to death in Galwan Valley in Eastern Ladakh. India lost 20 men, including a commanding officer, and China also lost an unspecified number of troops — later reports suggested at least four fatalities with a semi-official Indian estimate stating up to 43 casualties.
The two countries later came to the brink of war in late August when Indian forces went on an offensive in area south of Pangong Tso and occupied a number of important peaks. Gunfire was exchanged and the subsequent face-off involved everything from tanks to shadowiest special forces.
The minister has been consistent in his public comments since the outbreak of conflict last year. In an interview with Rediff News, he said it could not be business as usual with clashes at the border.
He said, “That is why we tell the Chinese side clearly that peace and tranquility in the border areas are the basis for the relationship. If we look back at the last three decades, this is quite self-evident.”
Speaking at the All India Conference of China Studies earlier in January, Jaishankar said a relationship depends on mutuality.
He said, “Whether it is our immediate concerns or more distant prospects, the fact is that the development of our ties can only be based on mutuality.
“Indeed, the three mutuals, mutual respect, mutual sensitivity, and mutual interests, are its determining factors.
“Any expectation that they can be brushed aside, and that life can carry on undisturbed despite the situation at the border, that is simply not realistic.”
While Jaishankar has been consistent in his comments, the Chinese have barely offered reasoning for their actions, which the minister has stated multiple times since last year.
In the conference cited above, he said, “Significantly, to date, we have yet to receive a credible explanation for the change in China’s stance or reasons for massing of troops in the border areas.”
When they did convey their reasoning, they were not consistent.
“Now for some reason, for which the Chinese have to date given us five differing explanations, the Chinese have violated it [existing border agreements],” said Jaishankar at a discussion organised by Lowy Institute last year.
In absence of an explanation or an inclination to deescalate at the border, New Delhi is moving ahead with doing away with the dehyphenation of the border friction and the bilateral relationship, which the minister has been mentioning since last year.
Earlier this month, the Centre quietly gave the go-ahead to 5G trials in India without participation of Chinese majors Huawei and ZTE. Last year, investment rules were amended with an eye to guard against Chinese hostile takeovers of stressed Indian companies.
The bottom line is therefore this — the ball is in the Chinese court. It is up to them to amend or break the relationship. For New Delhi, there is only one way — increase capacity, build partnerships, and be ready for the next round.
The discussion in its entirety may be watched on The Indian Express’s YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/IaKzs-g2OHw?t=624
This is a personal newsblog and my posts here are not connected financially or otherwise to any of subjects mentioned, quoted, cited, or covered.
