Grand Solar Minimum Impending?
The sun is everything, our life-giving warmth. It has been and continues to be studied with great interest. We are all familiar with its now widely accepted solar minimum cycle that occurs on average every 11 years, this is a period where the sun is low in activity as measured by sunspots and solar flux. We are currently experiencing a transition period between one cycle (№24) and the beginning of the next (№25). Cycle №1 was the cycle between 1755–1766. This is when first serious study of the sun started. Other cycles are also apparent when studying historical data eg 22 years, 90 year (Gleisberg), 210 year (Suess), 400 year and 2,400-year cycle (Hallstatt)and even a 6,000- and 12,000 year cycle! Numerous other cycles are postulated. Before we get bogged down in this search for pattern, let us just consider the 400- year cycles which are often referred to as Grand Solar Minima.
The sun is travelling in space time 515, 000 mph around the galactic centre, just to complicate the issue the galaxy (The Milky Way) itself is moving at about 1.3 million mph through the universe itself. We are entering new regions of space continuously. Whatever we see is a snapshot of the here and now. The simple message to take from all of this is that whilst we can try to project our science to the past and the future. We may not be getting the full picture, just a snapshot in time and space that within the context of the Universe is essentially meaningless. Whilst patterns appear to be emerging, it would be rash to infer some sort of celestial clock.
For practical purposes we must adhere to the scientific protocols of hypothesis, then testing the proposal and if the results are repeatable by independent trials, the hypothesis is accepted into theory. In case I lose you, just understand that what we have measured in the past can only reasonably support what may happen in the future.
It is within this context that there is widespread acceptance that we are on the cusp of a major transition in the activity of the sun from high to low. Picture in your mind a solar dimmer switch being turned down. There is also some belief that the planets themselves and the way that they line up in planetary parades or conjunctions has influence on the sun’s activity. Whilst the sun has an enormous gravitational pull on the planets, they in turn have their own tug. Tidal forces are strongest when Earth, Venus, and Jupiter align, and that this alignment occurs every 11.07 years — falling at the same time as the solar minimum. We seem to be at a point where a lot of these past cycles seem to be converging in the present. Namely the 11, 22, 87, 210, 400, 2,400, 6,000- and 12,000 year patterns of low solar activity.
Most stars are part of binary systems and if the sun has a companion then we have yet to find it. We can only see the sandy expansive beach and trying to find a single grain of sand that is coloured red (our binary companion could be a red dwarf) that has been buried on one of the beaches in a random location, anywhere in the world. Perhaps this is what ancient legends have been trying to warn us about (The Destroyer, Wormwood, Nibiru, Planet X etc). It is reputed to have the closest approach to Sol every 3,600 years. This is supposed to cause a bowling ball effect on the Oort Cloud, sending asteroids and comets hurtling towards the planets. Some would even say that all the supposed cyclical destruction is caused by the sun having some sort of hiccup, flinging rocks at us like clockwork on this 3,600-year cycle. We would not necessarily be struck every round. Before we get side tracked on hard to confirm evidence from ancient myths and stories, let us get back to reality.
There are also correlations that can be made with an increase in volcanic activity during solar minimum. Whilst connection in relationships cannot be established unequivocally, it could be argued that the decrease in magnetic flux of the sun may cause perturbations in the magnetic flux of the earth. Picture it if you will that if the sun’s flux creates some sort of pressure on the earth, solar minima with decreased flux may have tenuous and as yet unproven effects on increased volcanic activity. It may be that the increased volcanism in solar minima is responsible for the cooling effects on earth as opposed to the actual marginal output fluctuations of the sun. Some of the largest volcanic eruptions occur during minimal solar activity:
Recent analysis of large earthquakes and coronal mass ejections have shown a link between the two although the statistical correlation is much debated and not accepted by many as a causal link. This may be the case but there seems to be an undeniable link between the two. There are many mysteries in the world around us and one of them is exactly how energetic solar flares can cause the electromagnetic field of the earth energised by the solar flares to cause earthquakes. The debate continues.
Astronomers are continually discovering that magnetic flux is hiding like an invisible spiders webs in the universe.
Whilst it would be preemptive to jump to conclusions, the past here would tend to suggest that we are approaching The Grand Solar Minimum. Stay calm, we are not all going to freeze, all it generally entails is colder winters that may extend a little in length with average summers. In any event the global warming factors much talked about will negate any really serious cold. However, what it does not do is categorically to clear the climate change denial in some quarters who put it down to merely the ups and downs of the solar heater. This modern warm period is about to fizzle out, it overlaps increased industrial activity by humans who have led to increasing levels of Carbon Dioxide, depletion in Ozone in the atmosphere and increase in other harmful gases artificial and natural.
The lower solar activity will likely cause extremes of weather as it may play a part in affecting the jet streams and oceanic currents. We are already seeing record snowfalls, extremes of temperature both hot and cold in many parts of the world in addition to biblical scale flooding and heightened storm activity and intensity.
The Earth is starting to fight back with increased icing over some areas such as the arctic, increases in snowfall to reflect the sun, thereby causing cooling. There are increases in global greening, particularly in India and China as result of planting and worldwide by a process referred to as global greening. The planet is reacting to the unprecedented carbon dioxide levels by literally growing more plants, known as the CO2 fertilization effect.
I have mentioned previously that planets could have an influence on solar activity by interaction of the magnetic fields when alignments occur and 2020 represents a typical year that reflects pattern found in solar minima. Before we start wandering off into the realms of astrology, it should be borne in mind that we are part of a greater mechanism that we do not fully understand.
What is starting to crystalize in our perception is that magnetic flux may have a greater contribution to our planetary health than was hitherto widely unknown. The sun sets its force field down in a somewhat dynamo type cyclical pattern. In our awareness with cycles upon cycles. The ones of most interest may be the 11, 22, 88, 210- and 400 year lessening periods of activity. The 400 year cycle (+/- 50 years) is a particularly marked one in human development. The lowering of the solar flux allows in greater cosmic radiation to mutate the DNA on Earth with remarkable consequences.
What we should be prepared for is the societal resets that often coincide with cycles of the sun and in particular Grand Solar Minimums. The question of whether the occurrence of grand minima in solar activity is a regular or chaotic process is important for understanding the action of the solar flux. Even simple models can produce events comparable with grand minima. With all this in mind we need to consider that some of the largest solar flares coincide with Grand Solar Minima and solar minima in general. Given below are some examples and there are numerous others in the record.
The largest ever solar energetic activity, The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was recorded in 775ce so far discovered. The Carrington Event in 1859 and other less severe events have been documented in 1921, 1989 (which knocked out the power systems in Quebec Province). In 2012 a Carrington type event narrowly missed earth. The list is numerous and it should be noted that the vast majority of extreme solar flaring has occurred in and during solar minima.
The Carrington Event is of particular note, should such an energetic impulse strike earth in the modern digital era, then we can say goodbye to society as we know it. Imagine being without computers, GPS, electricity, water, your cell phone even. They will be frazzled to bits. A solar storm caused a nuclear scramble in 1967 until a solar cause was established and the alert stood down in time.
The Coronal Mass Ejection of 2012 was a technological age killing event had it struck earth. We had a narrow escape in the last solar minimum. With a Grand Solar Minimum creeping up on us we may face increasing risk from any one or all of the risks previously discussed.
It may be interesting to note that a number of the suns cycles appear to be converging to low activity to within our lifetimes or the next few generations. Perhaps this is what the ancients including the Mayans were warning about. We can allow them some margin for error.
We live in interesting times. What will the next round of mutations bring?
Super intelligence, super viruses, decreased birth rates worldwide or is it just more hype?
