The ISW: W5 NFL Commentary & Picks
This year we will be breaking-out our weekly syndication into three separate pieces:
Commentary & Picks
W5 Angles & Market Movement
The markets seem to be tightening up after a few weeks of wagering. The initial overreactions are in the rear-view and we have a good feel for most teams, but there are a few that we are still trying to figure out.
The Bucs are a prime example of this, as they opened +6.5 against the Saints and books have been pounded with sharp money driving that number down to +3.
Fern’s Official Plays W5
There are some chalky / public plays on here but last weekend was a massive win for bookmakers and I think that favorites are undervalued this week.
This is a tough spot for a Rams team that I feel is highly overrated even considering the correction after last week’s loss. Goff dropped back 68 times on Sunday and they’re heading into Seattle for a prime-time game on short rest. This game features Russell Wilson (historically one of the best QBs in prime-time ATS & SU) facing Jared Goff whose home road splits have been atrocious and is playing behind a porous offensive line.
Seattle can win in a shootout, but typically when they control a game they pound it on the ground. I love Seattle on the ML here and I waited for this total to hit 50 before pouncing. I would play it down to 49.5, but the value starts to diminish rapidly beyond that.
The Broncos is the definition of a close-your-eyes special. It’s ugly and I doubt they pull out the W, but this is simply too many points for a divisional rivalry against a team with no home-field advantage.
W6 Lookahead Lines
And some action I already got down:
When looking for value in the futures market, I try to identify divisional favorites who are overvalued and teams the market is undervaluing in general. My top two pick fit both categories nicely.
The AFC South is truly up for grabs. Although Desean Watson is arguably the most electrifying player to watch in the NFL, he is severely limited by his offensive line and the coaching of Bill O’Brien. The Jaguars and Colts are real threats to win (and the Jags already won SU vs TEN), but the odds are just off here. The Titans have demonstrated an ability to beat good teams and their defense could carry them to 10 wins. Getting them at +380 (have seen up to +420) is great value.
As I mentioned earlier, I believe the Rams to be highly overrated. I also believe the Seahawks are overrated and have serious holes defensively. The Niners have a legitimate defense, a capable QB and an excellent coach. The market has not fully adjusted to this team’s performance yet and this division is a lot more open than people think.
For the Cowboys, I think we’re seeing an overreaction to the Eagles victory over the Packers and the Cowboys prime-time loss to the Bridgewater led Saints (who have a top 3 run defense and match up perfectly against the Cowboys). I still think the Eagles make the playoffs, but I have the odds of the Cowboys taking the divisional crown above 60% so an implied probability of 56% makes this a play.