The ISW: NFL W8 2018 Odds & Data
- ***Last Updated 12 AM EST, Tue 10/30***
THE ISW W8 BIG BOARD
NFL WEEK 8 2018 Value Plays
M2: (Neutral site: London) PHI ML -160 (or lower)
M3: KC/DEN U55.5
M4: PIT ML -8.5; PIT ML -400
M5: WSH ML -115
M6: SEA +3.0
M7: TB/CIN O54.0
M8: NYJ +7.0
M9: CAR +105
M10: OAK +3.0; U50.0
M11: GB +9.0
M12: ARI -110
M13: MIN ML -110; MIN -1
M14: BUF +14.0
The Kelly Growth Market Simulation:
Kelly Growth Explained
ISW Kelly Growth Criterion Model [KGCM] NFL 2018
Throughout the course of the 2018 NFL season, The Intelligent Sports Wagerer is testing the Kelly Growth Criterion’s utility in suggesting a percentage (f) of total bankroll to wager when f = positive % .
When f > 0, this suggests that there is value (i.e. inefficient pricing) between the real odds (p) as quoted by the ISW fundamental odds tables, and the net Vegas implied odds (b) as quoted by the Westgate sportsbook.
The KGCM’s utility is in maximizing returns according to expected value.
To wit’s function should not be confused with a formula employed to pick winners, or even as an algorithm to select the more likely winner of a game — in fact, in the 82 games selected by the KGCM this year, 55 or 67.1% have been underdogs (< 50% implied chance of winning). Even if we assume that the wizards in Vegas frequently (and deliberately) misstate the real odds at least 50% of the time, KCGM typically favors picking the underdog as an investment.
ISW Kelly Growth Criterion Model [KGCM] Performance [W1–W7]
Through the first seven weeks of the regular season, the KGCM identified 82 value opportunities out of a possible 216 sides where f > 0.
Below are the results from weeks 1–7 from a hypothetical initial bankroll of $10,000.
Aggregate W/L Record = 41/82 (50.0%)
Favorites = 27/82 ; W/L = 21/27 (77.8%)
Underdogs = 55/82; W/L = 20/55 (36.4%)
Trailing Return on Investment (ROI) = +$3,893.81 +38.9%
Bankroll as of start of Week 8: $13,893.81