The ISW: W9 NFL 2019 Kelly Growth Performance Updates: +17.0% YTD

John Culver
Nov 1 · 2 min read

***Last updated at 10:30 AM EST on 11/4***

Kelly Growth Criterion Model [KGCM] Performance Updates

Odds & Data

Initial hypothetical NFL W9 KGCM investments as of last update

The KGCM’s utility is in maximizing returns according to expected value.

To wit’s function should not be confused with a formula employed to pick winners, or even as an algorithm to select the more likely winner of a game — in fact, in the 81 games selected by the KGCM this year, 56 or 69.1% have been underdogs (< 50% implied chance of winning). Even if we assume that the wizards in Vegas frequently (and deliberately) misstate the real odds at least 50% of the time, KCGM typically favors picking the underdog as an investment.

ISW Kelly Growth Criterion Model [KGCM] Performance [W1-W7]

Throughout the first eight weeks of the 100th NFL regular season, the KGCM identified 81 hypothetical value opportunities out of a possible 242 sides where f > 0.

Below are the results from weeks 1–8 from a hypothetical initial bankroll of $100,000. All investments were proportioned on a weekly compounding bankroll basis.

KGCM PERFORMANCE [W1–W8] 2019

The ISW’s KGCM Performance (ROI & Bankroll) W1-W8 2019 (GP = 81)

Scorecard

Aggregate W/L Record = 35/81 (43.2%)

Favorites = 25/81; W/L = 14/25 (56.0%)

Underdogs = 56/81; W/L = 21/56 (37.5%)

Trailing ROI W1-W8 = +$17,022.26 = +17.0%

Bankroll as of start of Week 9: $117,022.26

ISW KGCM Regular Season Results & Performance: NFL 2019 Regular Season: [W1-W8]

The Intelligent Sports Wagerer.

Identifying value by comparing historical cover rates and fundamental odds to the market.

John Culver

Written by

Co-founder & CEO Fanvest Wagering Exchange, Inc. Founder & Editor The Intelligent Sports Wagerer (The ISW.).

The Intelligent Sports Wagerer.

Identifying value by comparing historical cover rates and fundamental odds to the market.

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