Adventures in Stanley Cup Virginity: An NHL Western Conference Finals Preview
In what’s expected to be a tightly contested series between the Sharks and Blues, the winner will earn the opportunity to lose their Stanley Cup virginity, once and for all.
Be sure to also check out The Intermission’s Eastern Conference Preview between the Boston Bruins and Carolina Hurricanes.
Raise your hand if you’ve heard this story before: A long-standing and well respected franchise, established in the National Hockey League over 40 years ago, had never actually laid their hands on Stanley Cup. Finally, in one breakthrough season among the many that preceded them, they finally captured hockey’s most elusive and illustrious prize (and simply the best trophy in all of professional sports). It’s the very fabric of what sports dreams are made of.
Doesn’t that sound like the season just turned in by the 2018 Washington Capitals? Well it should. Because it is.
Fast forward to the 2018–19 season and over in the “Show Me State” of Missouri, the perennial under-the-radar St. Louis Blues have a chance to replicate that exact formula. The major difference — and it’s a significant one — is that the Blues have actually suffered this Stanley Cup dry spell for seven years longer than the Caps. St. Louis joined the NHL all the way back in 1967 (that’s right Leafs fans) and currently sit as the oldest active team to never have the Stanley Cup. They have played in the finals on three separate occasions, but because they capitalized on a playoff format that required an expansion team to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals, we can’t hardly count THAT, can we? All three times, they were swept (twice by Montreal and once by Boston). Needless to say, the Blues are not only battling their opponent in this series, but they’re sizing up another opportunity at history.
The San Jose Sharks, though a less tenured franchise than the Blues of St. Louis, are in the exact same scenario, having never captured the elusive Cup. They only just recently made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals for the very first time, losing to the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2016. Still, the Sharks are now approaching three decades of existence (28 years to be exact) without winning, which definitely qualifies as some pain and suffering, despite the stigma that hockey is less “meaningful” in the state of California.
The ‘18–19 playoff journeys certainly haven’t been easy for either team up to this point. The Blues “upset” a heavily-picked Winnipeg Jets squad in the opening round, then outlasted an extremely frisky Dallas Stars team in seven games earlier this week. The Sharks meanwhile, have been through not one, but two seven game series thus far. With the home ice advantage in both Game 7's, they first knocked off the defending Western Conference champion (and 2018 darling) Vegas Golden Knights, then proceeded to do the same to a very hot Colorado Avalanche squad.
These teams aren’t exactly strangers, with the Sharks getting the better of the Blues in both previous playoff matchups and this season (winning two of three). And on that aforementioned Sharks Cup run of 2016, they actually had to go through St. Louis in six games to advance to the Stanley Cup Final. Though the teams’ rosters have been altered since then, the mainstays in St. Louis have to have revenge (and history) on their minds.
As for the X’s and O’s, this projects to be a tightly contested series. San Jose comes in with a surplus of firepower, boasting FOUR of the top eight scorers (Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl, Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson) in these very playoffs. Couture and Hertl in particular have been near unstoppable, each posting 9 goals (leading the league). However, the team does lack some depth on their third and fourth lines, one of them being manned at center by the ageless Joe Thornton (yes, he’s still in the league). If the top two lines don’t produce and the Blues can keep the playmaking of Burns and Karlsson in between the blue lines, they’ll be in for a long series. The Sharks have had by far the most power-play opportunities of any team in the postseason, but with below average success (18.5%, good for 10th).
Where the Blues might lack pure firepower, they make up for in depth. Vladimir Tarasenko is probably their most gifted scorer (5 goals with zero assists so far), but Jaden Schwartz has become the starring attraction and is putting together a hell of a playoff run (8 goals, 3 assists). Guys like Ryan O’Reilly, Brayden Schenn and David Perron can create sparks, while Tyler Bozak, Patrick Maroon and Alex Steen provide some depth to the third and fourth lines. It will be interesting to see how the Blues forwards stack up against the tough Sharks defensive core, particular Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic.
Although the Blues will feature less experience in goal, I believe they have the individual advantage here behind rookie phenom Jordan Binnington, who posted an incredible 24–5–1 record during the regular season and has been plenty reliable in his first postseason (8–5, 2.39 GAA).
In fact, the play of Binnington may actually be the key to the entire series.
As a rookie goaltender appearing on a stage that will only continue to grow in stature, he possesses both the gift and the curse in terms of experience. On one hand, he might not have quite enough experience at this playoff level under his belt to effectively carry his team, especially if the games are of the low scoring, grind-it-out style. On the other hand, he’s never been here before, living for the heat of the moment with expectations at a minimum. Obviously the kid is damn good, and he could ultimately benefit from the “ignorance is bliss” approach. And it might be interesting to watch the Sharks face him for the first time. His potential run reminds me of the one then-rookie Matt Murray put together for the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2006. Like Murray, Binnington took over the starting job in the middle of the season and now represents the last line of defense for his team late in the playoffs. The Blues will seemingly go as far as Binnington can take them.
The Sharks meanwhile, haven’t gotten anything spectacular out of Martin Jones (or Andy Dell) in net. Though he’s appeared in the most playoff games of any goaltender, he’s also given up the most goals. Logical, of course, but his 2.72 GAA and .910 SV% don’t exactly scream “contender!”
Being the higher seed, the Sharks will possess home ice for the series. But given the evidence so far in this postseason, the jury is out on whether it will make a big impact on either side. The Sharks are a solid 6–2 at home, while the Blues are a more impressive 5–1 on the road.
With both teams employing similar styles of play and having a very tight series of games during the regular season, this series is as close as it gets to a toss-up. While I think the Sharks have more “star power,” I tend to favor the Blues roster as whole and I think their ability to win on the road is a crucial piece in them claiming a long series. These teams are essentially playing for another opportunity to lose that Stanley Cup virginity, so it’s easy to root for history in this one. Though, the Blues have been tortured almost twice as long, so my heart (and my head) is going to pick them to advance to the Cup Finals.
Prediction: Blues in seven games.
