Can the Raptors Solve Their Brook Lopez Problem?
It’s true! The Milwaukee Bucks stormed back in the second half to capture Game 1 of the East Finals behind their dominant big man and his three-point shooting. Pinch me, please.
Oh boy.
There’s a sentiment crowding the internet this morning that this Game 1 will be the game the Toronto Raptors will regret sacrificing. I can’t disagree. Yes, it’s only the first game of the series and in a vacuum, that statement sounds embarrassingly obvious, but after having the game IN their grasp for all but the final quarter, letting this one slip away could hurt during the most when we arrive at the back end of this series. They were supposed to lose this game, but they didn’t have to.
One thing became abundantly clear in Game 1: Brook Lopez could be a series-defining problem if Raptors coach Nick Nurse can’t quickly come up with effective defensive adjustments. Lopez did just about everything; he rebounded, protected the rim and controlled the paint on both ends. But primarily, it was his three-point shooting (huh?) in the 4th quarter that impaled daggers into the hearts of the Raptors.
Without recalling specific numbers, during the broadcast, Marv Albert referenced a couple of statistics that supported the sudden expansion (and explosion) of Lopez’s shooting range. I looked a little deeper. So get this: Up until the 2015-16 season (Lopez’s 8th in the league), he had made only THREE 3-point field goals. Hell, he only attempted 31 up until that point in his career. Some magic clearly took place during the summer of 2016. He went from 14 attempts in ‘15–16 to 387 in ‘16–17! I’m not a true mathematician, but that, my friends, is a 2,664% increase! He then attempted 325 the next season. Fast forward to 2019 where he attempted 512 (making 187, which was 36.5% and good for 17th in the entire league).
Remember, Brook Lopez is a 7'0, 270 pound center that’s now ATTEMPTING SIX THREES PER GAME. He has transformed his game from an offensive-rebounding post presence to the absolute definition of a “stretch five” big man. And frankly, when it came to Game 1 of the series, he made Marc Gasol, a typical all-world defensive player (perhaps a couple of seasons too late) look almost silly. Gasol struggled to cover Lopez out on the perimeter and then got out-muscled in the paint.
Unfortunately, the alternatives are limited.
Pascal Siakam, an excellent close-out defender on the perimeter and a guy that can defend practically all five positions on the floor, seems like the most logical attempt at a solution. Kawhi, perhaps one of the smartest defensive players the league has ever seen, could also try. But as intelligent as he is on that side of the ball, he lacks size to be able to body Lopez effectively in the paint. The last thing the Raptors want is either of these guys (especially Leonard) to get into foul trouble. Consider as well, that if you put either of these guys on Lopez for big stretches, it removes them from the Giannis Antetokounmpo equation, which has the potential to become an even bigger problem. Serge Ibaka, while not nearly as youthful, is still a few steps quicker than Gasol and could try his hand at battling Lopez in both areas on the floor. If Nurse decides to try to throw a smaller wing player out to protect against Lopez’s newfound love of the three-point shot, they could easily get outmatched in the paint. It seems like mixing the above combinations, and assessing on the fly, might be the best approach for Game 2.
Now, Brook Lopez posting that kind of game again, where he’s making several 25+foot three-point shots in the 4th quarter, is rather unlikely. He can however, give the Raptors fits and impact the game in other ways. And when you’re a team as deep as the Bucks, there are weapons everywhere. Lopez cemented his “difficult matchup” status in Game 1 and proved to be a viable threat.
When it came to the final outcome of the opening contest, apart from the “Lopez Game,” the Raptors didn’t do themselves any favors either.
Nick Nurse absolutely RODE Kawhi Leonard. I understand that he’s the team’s best player, primary scorer and go-to guy in crunch time. I also realize that he banked a pile of “DNP — Load Management” games over the course of the season to prepare for these very playoff moments. But there has to be a better way to stagger Kawhi’s minutes and keep him a little more fresh for the closing minutes of the game. After playing 42 minutes, he looked fatigued and many of his shot attempts were legless and caught the front of the rim. If the Bucks can find a way to successfully do this with Giannis, Nurse has to make those tough decisions as to when to hide Kawhi on the bench for even short periods of time during the game.
With the exception of Kyle Lowry, and as we witnessed in the Philadelphia series, the Raptors (starters) shot the ball poorly, particular in the 4th quarter. Leonard, Siakam, Gasol and Danny Green shot the ball a combined 19-for-62 (30.7%) from the field. The Bucks have a different defensive makeup than the Sixers had with all that size, but that kind of shooting can’t continue. That, combined with poor defensive efforts, led to a 32–17 4th quarter for the Bucks, deciding the outcome of Game 1. Personally, I’m happy I did not pull the trigger on the Raptors +6.5 betting line.
The Raptors got off to what would be considered to be the most ideal start in a Game 1 on the road. They led after the 1st quarter, at the half and after the 3rd quarter. Adjustments will have to be made for Game 2 to avoid another collapse, starting with Lopez. Go figure. If Giannis gets his, they’ll have to live with that and make sure supporting cast doesn’t catch fire again.
Losing both games on the road certainly doesn’t spell the end of the series, but it does mean that they absolutely NEED both games in Toronto to shrink this series down to three games and take it from there. Nurse will need to manage his minutes and matchups better, encourage the squad to be less dependent on the scoring of Kawhi so late in the game and play Brook Lopez like he’s… Steph Curry? Hey, by whatever means necessary.
