How Chris Godwin Was Created to Dominate Fantasy Football
Mike Evans has long been the wide receiver to own in Tampa Bay. But the rapid emergence of Chris Godwin spells the potential for a new fantasy king at the position.
It was easy. Way too easy. Just about every analyst, expert and fan had Chris Godwin tabbed as this year’s top breakout candidate. The hype train was running at full steam. Every sign pointed to Godwin having a monster season. But it almost felt too obvious. I mean, is fantasy football supposed to be this easy?
Now, five weeks into the season, Godwin has absolutely dominated the stat sheet. He’s the No. 1 scoring wide receiver in fantasy football. He’s become something of a revelation. Everyone knew he’d be good, but not this good. Godwin is playing out of his mind. He’s become the alpha dog on a team that has Mike Evans.
So let’s step back for a second and see how we got here.
He’s Got The Talent
Fantasy football is about opportunity as much as it is about talent. But before we get into all that, let’s take a second and appreciate the talent Godwin has.
The six-foot-one-inch 209-pound wide receiver out of Penn State came into the league in 2017 with an impressive 4.42 40 time. Godwin’s strong frame coupled with his speed and 36-inch vertical made him an enticing prospect. Still, his route running and quickness left a lot to be desired.
Now, three years later, he’s answered all those questions and more. He’s worked hard to become an effective route runner. His hands have become more consistent. He’s proven to be versatile. Godwin played exclusively as an outside receiver at PSU, but he’s operated as Tampa Bay’s primary slot receiver this season.
Godwin is now the complete package. He’s a blazing-fast receiver that has the strength to break tackles, the route-running ability to shake off defenders and the hands to make those tough catches on 50–50 balls. As a deep threat, a route runner or a possession receiver, Godwin can do it all.
The Bruce Arians Effect
Now we can talk about the opportunity. And what great opportunity it is. Bruce Arians has long been touted as an offensive mastermind that knew how to get the best out of his players. His decision to come out of retirement made Buccaneers fans giddy. But it was equally exciting for fantasy owners.
Godwin spent the first two years of his career stuck behind Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries. Godwin didn’t see the field too much, but he still found a way to make an impact. In the 2019 offseason, once both Humphries and Jackson departed in free agency, Godwin’s emergence was all too likely.
It all just made so much sense. Bruce Arians has done a wonderful job squeezing out career seasons out of so many different players. Arians has always maximized his No. 1 receiver’s production by moving him all around the formation. That included taking a ton of snaps from the slot.
Theoretically, that would have played into the favor of Mike Evans, but from the beginning, Arians said it would be Godwin that would take that slot role. And that was exciting. The slot position always pays major dividends in Arians’ offenses. Arians resurrected Reggie Wayne and Larry Fitzgerald’s careers by placing those guys in the slot.
Fast forward five weeks into the season, and it almost feels like Godwin has leapfrogged Evans as the No. 1 receiver on the Buccaneers this season. The crazy part is, the numbers would support that claim. Godwin has out-snapped Evans 404 to 384 this season. The two have also been equal in the targets department as well (Godwin has 54 to Evans’ 55 total targets). Even in a breakout season for Godwin, the results are extremely surprising considering Evans’ talent.
Godwin is getting open because of his talent, but Arians is also scheming him open. While Evans runs more low percentage deep routes, Godwin is getting a ton of screen passes, crossing routes and his usual deep routes. Arians is getting Godwin the ball in space, down the field, everywhere. The game plan is working, for now.
Say Thanks To Mike Evans
Evans has long been a premier deep threat and big-play machine, but he’s really struggled so far this season. Evans has an abysmal catch rate of 49.1%. That number would mark a career-low for a guy who’s had five straight 1,000-plus yards seasons. Arians has rarely put Evans in the slot the season, and that’s created some tough situations.
Evans has had an inconsistent season. He combined for six receptions, 89 yards and zero TDs through the first two weeks before he went off for 12 receptions, 279 yards and four TDs the next two. Then, of course, Evans dropped the ultimate goose egg Week 5. He not only caught zero passes, but he also saw zero targets.
But there’s some precedent for this. Evans has seen his fair share of stingy No. 1 corners. Evans has gone up against James Bradberry, Richard Sherman and Marshon Lattimore. And as the most talented receiver in this offense, opposing defenses consistently double team him.
That’s opened the flood gates for Godwin who’s run wild against lesser No. 2 corners, rarely ever seeing double teams. It’s a situation similar to the one in 2018 with JuJu Smith Schuster and Antonio Brown in Pittsburgh.
The Slot Is The New ‘X’
NFL offenses are constantly adapting. There used to be a notion that No. 1 wide receivers could only be X-receivers. Wes Welker started to lead the charge against that, but we’ve really seen slot receivers start to take over the last few years. Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen and Adam Thielen highlight a long list of true No. 1 receivers that operate from the slot.
When you think about, it’s just smart football. When you line up a receiver in the slot, he has a much larger route tree, he’s closer to the quarterback and he has easier matchups. There are a ton of effective corners out there, but many of them stay exclusively on the outside. That makes things much easier for slot receivers, like Godwin.
Is It Sustainable?
Will Godwin regress? Before we answer that, let’s take a look at his stats. Godwin has 43 receptions, 662 yards and a league-leading six TDs. His reception mark ranks third amongst all receivers while the yardage is first overall. When you look at his 16-game pace, that translates to a whopping 115 receptions, 1,765 yards and 16 TDs.
That would give him a jaw-dropping 327 points. To put it in perspective, Tyreek Hill, who scored the most points amongst wide receivers last season, put up 284.5 last season. So let’s be realistic for a second. Chances are Godwin won’t come close to the 16 TDs this year, but that doesn’t mean he won’t continue to be spectacular. He will still produce at an elite level.
Final Thoughts
Godwin has taken his flaws and squashed them. He’s worked hard to become the budding star we see on the field today. He’s catching a blistering 78.2% of passes coming his way. Godwin has been ridiculously efficient this season. He’s lived up to the hype and then some.
There’s no doubting this guy anymore.
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All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
