Offseason Guide: Iowa State Men’s Basketball
Year one of the Steve Prohm era is in the books, and Iowa State will look once again to dethrone Kansas from their perch as Big 12 Conference Champions.
The Numbers
Coming off their fifth straight NCAA Tournament berth, the Cyclones actually improved offensively, going from 11th in adjusted offense in 2015 to fourth in 2016. Their defense, however, fell from 71st in 2015 to 102nd in 2016. While some of the defensive drop off may have stemmed from the absence of Naz Mitrou-Long, Iowa State was 347th in the nation last year at protecting the rim, with opponents making 69.5 percent of their shots at the rim per Hoop-Math.
I don’t have any doubts that Iowa State will be able to score with Monte Morris returning, Matt Thomas coming off his best season as a Cyclone (43 percent from three-point range, 90% FT and 4.4 rebounds per game in 33.6 minutes per game) and Mitrou-Long back in action. My concern is with that rim protection. Jameel McKay, while a superb athlete and 2014–15 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, didn’t necessarily have the help on defense to change possession (since defense isn’t over until you’ve secured the rebound, an old adage from Jalen Rose). And that led to a negative rebounding differential, as well as giving up the most points per game in conference play.
Having the seventh-best rebounding differential, eighth-best defensive rebounding percentage and giving up the most points per game in the Big 12 isn’t a recipe to take down Kansas’ streak of regular season conference titles. Look to see how Prohm attacks teams on defense, and how Iowa State should improve on defense.
The Squad
Losing seniors Georges Niang, Jameel McKay and Abdel Nader create immediate needs (not to mention starters’ minutes) for the Cyclones. Throw in the departures via transfer of Jordan Ashton (to UNI) and Hallice Cooke, as well as the NBA-bound Emmanuel Malou who signed with Iowa State in November, and some fans might begin to worry about the makeup of this team.
Don’t.
Prohm has already landed two graduate transfers in Louisiana Tech’s Merrill Holden and Darrell Bowie of Northern Illinois. Jakolby Long, Cameron Lard and Solomon Young offer a variety of athletic talent, in addition to depth.
A starting lineup of Monte Morris, Naz Mitrou-Long, Matt Thomas, Deonte Burton and Merrill Holden is probably the most likely. The question is who comes off the bench next for a seemingly crowded roster. Donovan Jackson, a sharpshooter (40 percent from beyond-the-arc last year) from Iowa Western Junior College, might be a decent option to backup Morris. A reserve point guard is something the Cyclones have needed for a few years now.
Nick Weiler-Babb is also on the team, and could provide some crucial defensive minutes on the perimeter (and to Iowa State’s credit, they were the best in the Big 12 last year at 3-point percentage defense). Again, defense is the area this team needs the most growth in.
The Verdict
This Big 12 is still Kansas’ to win. They boast the top recruiting class in the conference (and 13th in the nation, per 247 Sports), which included Josh Jackson, who is the nation’s second-highest ranked recruit per ESPN. But Iowa State isn’t a team to be trifled with, especially with the talent currently on the squad. The question, as always, is can Prohm get all the pieces to fit? The immediate questions to be answered are that of a post presence whose specialty is defense. We know Monte Morris takes care of the ball at a historic rate, and Mitrou-Long and Matt Morris can shoot it well. As for dispersing minutes to the bench and what a second unit looks like? That’s what Prohm will need to figure out in another competitive year for the Big 12.
