Olympic Basketball Preview: Ranking Rio’s 12 Men’s Teams
NBA talent + Rio = Intriguing matchups all around
It’s been four years since 2012’s London Summer Olympics, so that means that it’s time for every basketball fan’s bonus round of basketball: Olympics! Of course, it’s generally a foregone conclusion that the United States will win gold in Rio de Janeiro — they’re an incredible -1600 (or 1/16) as favorites (wager $1600 to win $100) to win the whole thing. But for hardcore NBA fans, there’s a lot to like about this year’s Olympic squads as basketball becomes more and more of a global phenomenon. We’ll see the classic USA challengers like Spain, France, and Argentina, as well as upstarts like Lithuania and Australia. 11 of the 12 teams competing have players with NBA experience on their teams (shame on you, Greivis Vasquez, for your late withdrawal from Venezuela’s team), and they will all vie to capture the gold medal from the titanic USA basketball squad.
Tier 1: The Best
1) United States
In the 2004 Olympics in Athens, we saw the United States basketball team suffer an embarrassing defeat to Argentina. Thankfully, 2008’s Redeem Team and 2012’s Dream Team 2.0 brought the Americans back to their winning ways. This year’s team isn’t quite as impressive as previous years, and that’s a testament to the power and depth of USA’s talent: All but one of the team’s players has made an All-Star team (poor Harrison Barnes). But there’s no reason that this squad shouldn’t walk all over the competition, just like in ’08 and ’12.
My personal starting lineup would be Kyle Lowry and Klay Thompson at the guard spots, with former MVP Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony and DeAndre Jordan filling up the frontcourt. Durant, in particular, will be interesting to watch after a July that was tumultuous, to say the least. While Kyrie Irving is riding high after winning his first NBA championship and will likely be the starter, his defense leaves a lot to be desired, especially when compared with Lowry. Thompson is perhaps the best off-ball mover in the world, and Anthony’s title as the most experienced player on this team should work nicely. It might be a bit controversial to list Jordan as the starter in the middle versus DeMarcus Cousins, but Jordan’s pure athleticism in both defense and the pick-and-roll should make him more effective in the long run. Add in players like Paul George (what a nice story), Jimmy Butler, and DeMar DeRozan off the bench, and this is a team that is about as close to a sure bet as possible to take home the gold at Rio.
Tier 2: Medal Contenders
2) France
Could this be the year, finally, that a team usurps the second-place crown from Spain? If any team is going to do it, it will be the French, who probably have the best starting lineup top-to-bottom after USA. Spearheaded by four-time NBA champion Tony Parker at PG, this is a roster with a lot of NBA experience and some serious medal potential. Anchoring the middle will be defensive force (and Utah Jazz center) Rudy Gobert, who will be a difference-maker in these Olympics. Gobert has established himself as one of the best defensive players in the world, and if he personally can limit USA’s inside scoring at the same time that their shooters get cold, France could be in business.
Nicolas Batum just signed with the Charlotte Hornets in one of the largest contracts in NBA history as a fantastic two-way player who can shoot and defend at an NBA level, but he’ll have his work cut out for him against phenoms like Durant and George. Boris Diaw (formerly Parker’s teammate and currently Gobert’s teammate) might not be very effective outside of Gregg Popovich’s scheme, but he provides intelligent passing, which might be the most important factor in defeating the United States. Finally, the team has solid depth with Nuggets forward Joffrey Lauvergne and Nando de Colo, both of whom are excellent shooters. It stings that Magic guard Evan Fournier was left off the team — had he played, he would have contended with Gobert to be the best player on the squad. Still, France is a solid team that should contend for a medal — with some slight upset potential.
3) Spain
The closest thing that the USA has that could be called a “rival”, Spain has been the most consistent non-American basketball team in the 2000s. The consistently solid Gasol brothers, along with mainstays like José Calderón and Rudy Fernández, have kept Spain among the top for quite some time. But 2016 might be the year that things start to fade for the Spanish.
For starters, their potential best player, Memphis Grizzlies forward Marc Gasol, has withdrawn due to injury. That’s a huge blow, as Gasol’s combination of intelligence, defense and physical strength could have given players like Cousins and Jordan serious problems. Fortunately, newly-signed Spurs forward Pau Gasol is the de facto leader of the team, and his refined offense will work well against the less-talented teams in the pool.
The cheery Ricky Rubio will lead at point, while Calderon and Chicago Bulls forward Nikola Mirotic will spread the floor with their world-class shooting. Shooting, along with depth, are the two major advantages that the Spaniards have over France. 11 of the 12 players on Spain’s roster either have NBA experience or have been drafted into the league. The most compelling player for me will be the reborn Sergio Rodriguez, the Spanish Steve Nash, who will be making his triumphant return to the NBA this year as a point guard for the Philadelphia 76ers. As usual, Spain is one of the top teams at the Olympics, but it’s hard to see them competing with the United States.
Tier 3: Potential Spoilers
4) Lithuania
Who is currently the third-best national team in the world, according to the FIBA World Rankings? If you guessed Lithuania, you’re probably lying. Yes, the kings of Eastern European basketball are among the top teams at Rio’s Olympics. Their relentless discipline and brute strength push them over more talented, but less cohesive, mismatched teams like Brazil and Australia. Fresh off a runner-up finish at 2015’s EuroBasket — only falling to Spain — Lithuania will look to be a spoiler in Rio.
Their (literal) centerpiece is Toronto Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas, whose solid all-around game allows him to be a leader for the Lithuanians. Stunningly, despite the team’s success in recent years, Valanciunas is the only player on the team with NBA experience. However, forwards Domatas Sabonis and Mindaugas Kuzminskas will be making their NBA debuts in 2016 for the Oklahoma City Thunder and New York Knicks, respectively.
Lithuania’s head coach, Jonas Kazlauskas, has won all around the world, including in China and at the aforementioned EuroBasket. His disciplined, off-kilter style of coaching has become a signature, and he’s always good for some sideline antics. On paper, this team shouldn’t be very entertaining (or even that good), but I’m looking forward to see if they can topple giants yet again.
5) Brazil
The green, blue and yellow have never really been known as a world basketball power, but they’ve quietly assembled a roster of NBA players both young and old. Their best play will come at the guard positions, where speedsters and scorers like Leandro Barbosa, Raul Neto and Marcelo Huertas will be darting passes in and out of traffic with ease.
Brazil’s best player will probably be Nenê, who is the most decorated Brazilian player of all time. His scoring and experience will be great for a team that hasn’t had much success in international competitions. Keep an eye out for Chicago Bulls forward Cristiano Felício, whose odd mix of athleticism, shooting, and strength might make him a tough player to defend against come game time. Brazil has the players to make a run at medal contention, but without better consistency, it will be another lost Olympics for this team.
6) Australia
Andrew Bogut. Matthew Dellavedova. Patty Mills. Aron Baynes. Joe Ingles. Cameron Bairstow. Noticing a pattern? Yes, this lovable group of gritty, scrappy players is one that consist entirely of those with NBA experience. It will be interesting to see whether it’s coincidence or not that the toughness label — which has been placed on nearly all these players — is a result of being Australian or not. Tough or not, it’s no joke that these are all fantastic basketball players, and that’s what makes the Aussies my darkhorse pick for Rio’s Olympics.
Dellavedova was quietly one of the better two-way combo guards in the entire NBA last season, and his intriguing three-and-D qualities combined with an underrated skill-set handling the ball makes him one of the more intriguing players in the entire tournament. Bogut will be a solid defender as always, and Mills and Ingles will provide scoring and ball-handling. It’s hard not to look at this team and imagine what could have been; Ben Simmons and Dante Exum potentially joining the team, or God forbid Kyrie Irving (people forget he’s Australian), but this is still a squad with a lot of potential. Look out for them come tournament time.
7) Serbia
In 2014, Serbia shocked the world by placing as the runner-up during the FIBA World Championships. They ended up falling to the USA in the championship round, but not before knocking off France and Brazil — and putting the basketball world on notice.
Their best player in that tournament, Milos Teodosic, is back as Serbia’s captain. Teodosic is a wonderful, athletic scorer that really should be getting NBA offers, but he seems to perform at his best in international play. He’s supported by NBA players Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets and Bogdan Bogdanovic of the Suns, both of whom can spread the floor and are tenacious defenders. The team does miss Minnesota Timberwolves swingman Nemanja Bjelica, but their head coach is Aleksandar Dordevic, who just so happens to be Serbia’s greatest basketball player in their history (he played when they were officially called Yugoslavia). All in all, Serbia is a well-rounded team that may contend for a medal if a few bounces go their way.
8) Argentina
It’s crazy that Manu Ginobili is still around. The four-time NBA champion — who will be competing in his fourth Olympics — has a gold medal under his belt, something that few non-American players can say. But here we are, yet again, waiting to see if the 39-year-old can work some magic.
Unfortunately, his team is a little bit lacking, as the only other rotation NBA player on the squad is the Brooklyn Nets’ Luis Scola. Scola is a nice player, one who can stretch the floor as a power forward and rebound fairly well, but he won’t win you games, especially against players like Pau Gasol and Rudy Gobert. Carlos Delfino had a nice career, but he’s just as ancient as Ginobili, without a lot of the talent. Despite being one of the better teams in international play in the aughts, this might be the tail end of Argentina’s relevance for a while.
9) Croatia
Sorry NBA nerds, you’re going to have to wait a couple months to see Dragan Bender in action. Despite his withdrawal from Olympic consideration, Croatia should be a solid team that contends for a medal — with an eye towards the future. They’re highlighted by positionless phenoms who have yet to reach their full potential, like Orlando Magic guard Mario Hezonja and 76ers swingman Dario Saric.
Croatia’s best player will likely be the Nets’ Bojan Bogdanovic, a true athlete who can shoot and defend at an NBA level. Unfortunately, the squad lacks a lot of depth, and will have to fight hard to match teams with much more professional experience than them. Look for them to compete well with a team in the tier above, while potentially falling to a team in the tier below.
Tier 4: Just Happy To Be Here
10) Nigeria
The lone African team to compete this year, Nigeria has its work cut out for it if they want to make an impact. They have a few solid players, including former lottery pick Ike Diogu and current Detroit Pistons guard Michael Gbinije, but the real potential lies in what could have been: Portland Trail Blazers teammates Festus Ezeli and Al-Farouq Aminu won’t be a part of 2016’s squad.
11) China
China is in a similar boat as Nigeria as the lone representative from its continent and comparable levels of NBA experience. The best player on the team will likely be Yi Jianlin, who had a decent NBA career and is very experienced in international play. Unfortunately, this team might be a few years from contention, as two 2016 NBA draft picks will play on this team: Zhou Qi and Wang Zhelin.
12) Venezuela
With the late withdrawal of Vasquez from the squad, Venezuela has the less-than-desirable task of performing as the lone team without a player that has NBA experience. They play at a glacial pace, passing and handing off until they find the shot they want. The idea is that despite their lack of talent, a slower pace means fewer possessions; therefore, the team has more of an opportunity to get lucky. Unfortunately, as the No. 22 team in the world — behind superpowers like Angola, Puerto Rico, and Iran — Venezuela has a lot of work to do to compete at a high level in this year’s Summer Games.
Keep up to date with men’s basketball at the 2016 Summer Olympics HERE.
