Russia’s Demands for Ukraine Conflict
After Moscow invaded Ukraine, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan phoned his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on March 6th to encourage him to “end this war immediately,” according to Mr. Kalin, the spokesperson of the presidency of the Republic of Turkey. Russia is likely to agree to hold direct talks with the Ukrainian leaders in Istanbul or Ankara, giving Turkey the chance it wants to position itself as an important regional interlocutor, showing off its capabilities to bring parties together and to serve as an effective, pragmatic alternative for both Ukraine and Russia. After that, President Vladimir Putin rang the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and told him what Russia’s precise demands were for a peace deal with Ukraine.
Mr. Kalin tweeted on March 18
The NATO Issue: Ukraine’s understanding that it should remain neutral and not apply to join NATO at the same time has previously been admitted by President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. However, each country has its unique set of constraints, which has an impact on the connection. Ukraine has strong links to the West, but Turkey, despite being a NATO member, wants to establish itself as a separate political power center positioned between the East and the West. Ankara has drifted away from Western alliances towards a more pragmatic Turkey-centered diversified regional strategy as a result of Erdoğan’s actions, which have been widely condemned in the West. In some cases, this may put Turkey in conflict with the West.
The Status of Crimea: Mr. Kalin was far less precise about the Crimea conflict, merely stating that they were concerned about the status of Donbas, located in eastern Ukraine, where portions of the region had already split away from Ukraine and emphasized their Russianness. Despite Mr. Kalin’s lack of specifics, it is widely assumed that Russia would insist on the Ukrainian government handing over land in eastern Ukraine. That will be a hotly debated topic. Another anticipation is whether Russia would demand that Ukraine openly declare Crimea as Russian territory, which it illegally annexed in 2014. If this is the case, Ukraine will have to swallow a nasty pill. Nonetheless, it is a fait accompli, even though Russia has no legal title to Crimea and, after the fall of Communism but before Vladimir Putin came to power, signed an international treaty acknowledging Crimea as part of Ukraine. Turkey should not be considered a military and political partner of Ukraine in the event of a Russian intervention. Ukraine and Turkey have a long-term connection, but it is restricted and temporary in several ways. Turkey sees Ukraine as a possible regional counterbalance to Russia, a stumbling block to Russia’s dramatic expansion of geopolitical dominance in the Black Sea area. Ukraine sees Turkey as a strong alternative partner capable of bolstering Ukraine’s military capabilities, assisting in the internationalization of Crimea-related issues, and contributing significantly to foreign commerce.
Disarmament: To ensure that Ukraine does not constitute a danger to Russia, Russia will make sure that the country is disarmed. In case of an armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Turkey is unlikely to take sides. Involvement in such a crisis would be harmful to Turkey’s economic and security interests, as it would impede Black Sea trade and deepen problems with Turkey’s business relationships with Russia if Western sanctions were reinforced. From Mr. Zelensky’s point of view, who is Jewish and has family members who died in the Holocaust, finds this deeply offensive, but the Turkish side feels he will readily accept it. For Ukraine, denouncing all forms of neo-Nazism and pledging to crack down on them may be sufficient.
A Peace Deal: Even if a truce pauses the carnage at the moment, negotiating a peace accord might take a long time. Ukraine has suffered horribly in recent weeks, and it will take a long time to reconstruct the towns and cities that Russia has wrecked and destroyed. Rehousing the millions of migrants who have fled their homes will also be difficult. So, how about Vladimir Putin? There has been speculation that he is unwell, or perhaps psychologically unstable. In the phone chat, did Mr. Kalin notice anything unusual about him? He stated categorically that this was not the case. In everything he said, Mr. Putin appeared to be straightforward and precise. Yet even if he does manage to present an agreement with Ukraine as a glorious victory over neo-Nazism, his position at home must be weakened. More and more people will realize that he overreached himself badly, and stories of the soldiers who have been killed or captured are already spreading fast.
Turkey’s Position: Turkey has deep connections with Russia as well, which it does not want to lose or compromise for Ukraine’s sake. Although Turkey and Russia are neither friends nor allies, they have developed a unique and solid set of agreements and mutual understandings in a variety of regional arenas which range from Syria to the Southern Caucasus. Both Ankara and Moscow rely heavily on their abilities to negotiate and keep a conversation despite their disagreements. Erdoğan is unlikely to irritate Putin by pledging significant military help to Ukraine, which would shift the power balance between Kyiv and Moscow. Because of the Russian component, ties between Ukraine and Turkey will always remain constrained. Nonetheless, Erdoğan’s visit to Kyiv on 3th of February demonstrated that Turkey is eager to investigate new ways to expand its regional political role. This was clear in the Turkish president’s mediation offer, which he proposed during talks with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky. It’s unclear how Turkey may influence Ukraine’s or Russia’s stance on the Crimea conflict. It was those two countries’ uncompromising viewpoints, not incompetent mediators or an inefficient discussion framework, that caused the peace process to stop in the first place. Changing the site to Istanbul or Ankara, for example, is unlikely to help the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations continue.
