Coronavirus Outbreak in China Is Likely a Mild Pandemic

Last night I watched Contagion on Netflix and was somewhat disappointed. It’s a bit like news on the Wuhan Virus, experts appear mixed as to how serious it is, including the stock market which appears to be ignoring it since China has flooded its market with liquidity.

Here’s the thing, if you live in China this virus is still doubling every four days, and a couple of Super Hospitals isn’t going to change that.

The novel coronavirus in China appears contagious enough to spread, but not lethal enough to make the entire world stop in panic. It’s also not contagious enough to seem dangerous to the rest of the world outside of cities like Bangkok, Hong Kong and Singapore and maybe Taipei.

Thailand is in particular worrisome as a new potential outbreak location.

After Wired, the NYT and BBC have explored if this virus could be a pandemic, now I’ve noticed CNBC, Business Insider and Global news are getting in on the fun. China doesn’t like it, but the Western media is having a field day on their behalf.

“We will have outbreaks here in the United States,” former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said of the coronavirus.

Experts and former administrators are largely saying the travel bans and quarantines simply slows down the spread of the virus. This as Hong Kong researchers have estimated real number of cases in China are likely at least 5x reported numbers.

The Wuhan outbreak was mismanaged seeing half the city leave before it was placed in lockdown. At the beginning of the epidemic, China cared more about “rumor” spreaders than actually handling the situation. This has created a backlash in China as more stories are written about the first days.

An epidemic is an often sudden increase in the number of cases of a disease above what is normally expected in a population in an area, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. However if more outbreaks occur like is very possible in Bangkok, eventually the virus which is flu like becomes impossible to prevent all over the world, which is why some experts are saying it is likely going to be a mild pandemic.

Officially known as 2019-nCoV, at the current rate of spread it will reach 100,000 infected cases very soon in early February.

Meanwhile human-to-human transmission is occurring in new ways, where Thailand, Japan and Singapore seem to be most at risk for new outbreaks outside of China.

According to Business Insider, Scientists say the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak could soon be declared a pandemic. I’m not exactly making this up, any number of media coverage now suggest this is a distinct possibility.

The World Health Organization defines a pandemic as “the worldwide spread of a new disease.” The WHO is very moderate in how it lets out information a bit following in the footsteps of China itself. Meanwhile the CDC is taking a much more vigilant approach like in the potential cases in New York City, where I used to live.

China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has signaled a more assertive strategy for dealing with the coronavirus but currently they are losing the battle as the virus spreads and will likely mean February, 2020 is a dark month in China’s history forever and could stain his legacy.

Early examples of Chinese doctors sharing information on WeChat who were punished have made international headlines and show China’s approach to information control may have been very inept in how local officials dealt with the threat of the Wuhan virus. This CNN article was excellent and show how Chinese citizens are angry about how the outbreak was handled especially in late December and early January, 2020.

The World is on a “Pandemic Watch”

The Wuhan coronavirus is “very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told The New York Times on Sunday.

What this amounts to is more speculation in the media and among healthcare experts of how bad the Wuhan virus could become if it continues to spread globally. It’s one thing to shut down flights out of China, but what if it infects all of South-East Asia? As more cases mount in other countries, the watch is on where the 2nd outbreak might occur, if at all.

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned earlier Monday that the world could be “dangerously” unprepared for the next pandemic. He pressed the need for member countries to “invest in preparedness” as the virus spreads across the globe.

If a mild Pandemic occurs the panic will be incredible in such an information connected world, showing how much times have changed even from 2003 when the SARS virus spread panic, where the Wuhan virus has already taken more lives.

More media outlets including CNBC and the NY Times now have live updates on the Wuhan virus as news changes so quickly, on an hourly basis and not just daily basis.

In the outbreak region itself of Wuhan, 4% of cases result in death. This is likely due to over-reporting of serious vs. milder cases. However we should be alarmed as this isn’t just as contagious as any flu. Anyone with pre-existing health conditions over 50, should be on high alert.

NIH doctor says 25% of coronavirus cases in China are ‘very serious,’ requiring ‘intensive care’.

“About 25% of them have very serious disease, requiring relatively intensive or really intensive care,” NIH’s Dr. Anthony Fauci said on February 4th, 2020. We’ll soon have over 20,000 infected cases. Off the record this number may have already been 100k as of January 28th.

What the world will remember is the story of the Chinese doctor who tried to warn others. But while the stock market is pretending this is over, it’s far far from over. With an R naught of over 2, the virus might continue to spread all through the Spring of 2020.

Even if the Wuhan virus never achieves pandemic status, the economic impact could trip China and the rest of the world into a global recession.

A viral outbreak could be characterized as a pandemic if it is “markedly different from recently circulating strains” and if “humans have little or no immunity” to it, according to the UK’s Health and Safety Executive. The Wuhan virus likely by February 15th, 2020 will fit this bill and will have spread more globally. However a slow-down in global cases since the travel bans is promising as of February 4th, 2020.

Thus far the Wuhan virus has not proved deadly outside of China yet. The new coronavirus causes severe acute respiratory infection and symptoms usually start with a fever, followed by a dry cough. It’s unclear if it’s even dangerous for young people below 30.

Last week, WHO declared the virus a global health emergency. But it’s likely not going to declare this a Pandemic to avoid the panic for a long time, if ever. However, if the coronavirus continues to spread with fresh outbreaks, it’s likely already then in the category of being a “mild” pandemic.

I’m a writer for the Last Futurist, a site about the future of artificial intelligence.