An Update on Trump’s Chances in November
Or, how badly he’s gonna lose!
Now, to begin, back in December 2023, I wrote the following:
So, of course, nothing about any of that has really changed. I’m not going to repeat that list of stuff, so if you want to make sense of this article, go back and read it. Don’t worry, I’ll wait. (Surfing Facebook for amusing Pickles comics…)
Oh! Good, you’re back. (And thanks for the break, I needed that!)
So, moving on.
Obviously, we’re almost six months along, and has anything improved for Trump?
Well, he DID get a coterie of MAGA Congresscritters to come to his trial and show support by parroting the things he told them to say that he couldn’t without possibly getting tossed into the clink for the day. Nothing says he would have, of course, but I guess he decided not to take the chance. And he did get one of his kids to show up for a day or so. (Crickets in regards to the rest, of course.)
But has he done anything to actually attract voters?
No, and he isn’t trying, either.
In fact, all those folks (a substantial percentage in some states) who voted for Nicki Haley are not exactly breaking down the doors to get the chance to change their support to Trump. In fact, they’re telling reporters (and presumably their friends and family) that they’re going to — get this — vote for BIDEN. Why? Because they believe what Haley told them during HER campaign!
Also, that Mike Johnson guy? You know, the White Nationalist Theocracy fellow who gained the House speakership? The one who was supposed to be nailed to Trump’s butt with his lips? He disregarded that long enough (at least) to usher the Ukraine/Israel support bill through to passage.
So, still, Trump doesn’t actually control the GOP in the House, only reliably the MAGA caucus. The moderates tend to go their own way when allowed to by Johnson.
When he’s not showing up at a trial in New York wearing a blue suit and red tie, that is. (snicker)
And let’s not forget the Never-Trumpers. Moderate Republicans who have decided (many of them) that his actions on January 6th were enough to break their support for him and make them vote for Biden. Their numbers are reportedly growing.
Look, the honest news media (a shrinking number, sadly) is showing us the truth about Trump and his actions. Not policy stuff — HIS actions, his speech, his words, his inability to maintain a train of thought.
You know, the kinds of things that truly matter in a leader — not stuff like falling off of a stationary bike.
He cannot complete a speech unless he reads it off a teleprompter, and even then he often goes astray. His thoughts wander, and he gets confused, both with people and things. I mean, come on, Hannibal Lecter? Seriously? I’d love to know who he thought that was. I shudder to think he wasn’t confused.
The one thing up in the air right now is the hush money trial. One cannot predict, according to all the actual legal experts, which way the jury might go, especially given that final arguments haven’t been made yet. A substantial number of Trump supporters have told the press that if he is convicted, that will change their minds about voting for him.
So, if he gets off, that’s not good for our side! Obviously.
But frankly, given the elements of that trial and what’s been presented, I can’t see (from my admittedly biased viewpoint) how he could be acquitted. But all it takes is one, and from my own experience with the “one” in a jury, it could literally take days to change one mind alone.
So, we’ll see.
But the final conclusion I have is that unless the Democrats screw things up considerably, Trump has little chance of winning, he just doesn’t have the raw numbers of MAGA supporters to win the EC. They just aren’t there. There could be some groups that may be persuaded to vote for him, somehow, depending on geography, and local politics. After all the EC is a local political structure — as in statewide local, so national percentages don’t count at all. (As Hillary Clinton found to her dismay!)
Sadly, as I noted in a recent article, the next year is going to be a hard one, because obviously, with the Project 2025 being pushed by the Heritage folks and backed by the GOP, it isn’t ONLY Trump backing the idea of a dictatorship. We’ve got an entire political party doing that now, and if we want to survive that, the only thing I can do is to push another thing I’ve written about:
This election is NOT about personalities. Forget Trump, forget Biden. It’s the PARTIES who count — Republicans are the new Fascist party and the Democrats still support the Constitution.
So, if you want to maintain democracy and want your vote to continue to count — however much you think it does — VOTE BLUE. Not just for Biden, but for every down ballot race also. We desperately need the Democrats to control Congress. It’s the only way we can shut this Fascist shit down.
As Rachael Maddow said at her thing with Chris Hayes in New York the other day — if you’re going to support Democracy, you have do it according to democratic principles. You cannot take authoritarian shortcuts.
So, let’s VOTE. Get everyone you know out there to vote, even if you have to bundle up a backpack for them to wear containing water and snacks for a long line in Red States, then do that!
Vote.
Vote.
Vote.
VOTE BLUE.
End of update.
