Biden’s Problems are Solvable, Trump’s are Fatal
Stop Pretending Everything is a Toss-Up
There are a couple of reasons why everyone who talks or writes about politics constantly maintains that anything could happen, stay tuned! The first, and most obvious, is that a close race is more interesting and profitable. That’s why, even if it’s Iron Mike Tyson vs Mr. Rogers in a 12-round slugfest, they will focus on the technically possible chance that Mike Tyson could have an unrelated embolism and die at the start of round one.
The second reason is predictions are hard, everyone is terrible at probabilities, and most people are afraid to look stupid. The answer instead becomes, look presentable and act like everything has a 50% chance of happening — “It will, or it won’t, back to you Chuck!”.
So, like everything else that passes for news, analysis, or prediction, what you get is profit-driven, glossy, and largely useless. Yes, the next President of the United States is almost certainly going to be Joe Biden or Donald Trump. Yes, technically, either man could win, and either man could suddenly die in the next ten months. Yes, there are many variables out there. Does that mean it’s just a coin flip and we can all go to the beach until next fall? Absolutely not. The election will depend on the outcome of dozens of events this year which we can predict with varying degrees of confidence. If one is unwilling to make any predictions other than “It’s anyone’s ballgame!” and back them with some form of analysis . . . then one isn’t saying anything at all.
To that end, I would put up hard currency that Joe Biden is 85% likely to carry the day this November. Here is why. He has numerous advantages and only a few things need to break his way. Trump has almost exclusively disadvantages and would need to overcome impossible odds over and over again, all year long to prevail.
Objective measures of the economy are good, regardless of current perceptions in some sectors. President Biden has steered clear of catastrophic defeat or scandals. By that I mean Watergate, Vietnam — that sort of thing, not whatever made-up nonsense Fox is crying about on any given day. He hasn’t been impeached, or tried to overthrow the government. The power of incumbency is strong.
Biden has some liabilities, of course, but they are crucially things that have at least theoretical solutions. Some people are concerned about his age, but he may have no health problems this year and his presumptive opponent is, in truth, equally vulnerable. Progressives are upset over the Israel Hamas conflict, but that could de-escalate in the coming months or be overshadowed by other conflicts. In truth, the conflict could worsen, but my larger point is that all of President Biden’s challenges have the possibility of improving whereas none of Trump’s do. A mistrial in one of your criminal indictments, or a Supreme Court that you stacked ruling that you can *appear* on the ballot despite your treason is hardly the win that some are pretending it would be.
There are a lot of migrants from Central and South America crossing the southern U.S. border, but that isn’t anything new. If you are the type of person for whom that is the number-one, existential threat facing America, well, then you probably, weirdly, live in a place like rural Iowa with almost no immigrants, also have some racial issues to work through, and you’re already gladly voting for Trump. If you’re like most people, you care far more about wages, health care, the fate of our democracy, abortion rights, gun control, and the environment.
Biden has money in the bank, an experienced staff, and a straightforward goal: hold the course. Plus, I should point out, the man has been in public service for a half a century and has, essentially, never lost a race.
Trump, on the other hand, has a staggeringly high hill to climb and probably die on. Despite all the blather about Iowa, getting half of the extremely conservative, extremely small Republican Iowan caucus as a former president is not very impressive. Trump will probably end up with GOP nomination purely on the weakness of his rivals and his own familiarity, but even that is hardly a done deal. Nor will it be easy or cheap. Trump is also about to lose hundreds of millions of dollars in his civil fraud case. On top of that being a massive psychological blow, how much of the money Trump raises this year is actually going to go toward his election campaign as opposed to his legal fees and/or directly into his pocket?
It gets less coverage, but Trump also has all of the risks and challenges of being nearly eighty years old, but now with added stress of almost a hundred felony charges and a presidential campaign tacked on.
Beyond the immediate challenges of winning the nomination, avoiding bankruptcy, staying alive, and delaying multiple treason, insurrection, and espionage trials, Trump in the general election would have to do far better than he did in 2020 in order to win. That means that millions of people who did not vote for him in 2020, would have to look at something from the past four years, and say, “You know, I thought he was a racist, dangerous psychopath before the January 6th insurrection, but now that I see how much he really wants the job, well, he’s got my vote now!”
Biden is assured the nomination; Trump has to fight for it. Biden needs to improve public perception of an already well-performing economy; Trump has to fight the public perception of him as a loser and a criminal by . . . I really don’t know, four mistrials, a Supreme Court Hail Mary, and some self-pardons?
No, next fall people are going to look around. Gas will be $2.25 a gallon and the price of insulin will be capped. The Infrastructure Bill will have projects breaking ground all over the country. Putin will be openly cheering for Trump, who will have at least one conviction already, while about a quarter of the Republican party will be preparing to begrudgingly vote for Biden or stay home. Trump will become more and more unhinged as the election draws closer, and the authorities start seizing his properties to pay judgements. His promises will become stranger and his calls for violence more overt until there is only one obvious choice for Americans to make and we put this nightmare to bed for good.
