Guilty X 34
It isn’t good for Trump, and it will matter in the end
As predictable as a hangover after Mardi Gras, the reactions to Trump’s first felony convictions, from the right and left, could have been scripted last week. The Far Reich are screaming that this is the worst day since the crucifixion, that we are now a failed state, and the streets will run red with blood. Many on the left just shrugged and said, “He won’t go to jail and this won’t change anything.” Cue the womp, womp effect.
Ding Dong, Wrong Wrong.
First, there is no way this is good for Trump. Just look at his reaction. Is that the face and body language of a person who just got great news? He will get a bump in fundraising off of the most brain-dead cult members, sure, but he’s been getting that for eight years now. This isn’t going to bring in any money he wasn’t already going to get. Plus it comes with a whole new list of costs and penalties. The corrupt rich who back Trump, not out of love but as an investment, will, correctly, view this as a riskier venture now.
Jail, house arrest, or intrusive probation are all degrading, expensive, and time-consuming. The Teflon coating is off and the seal is broken. Trump’s multiple upcoming trials are now more reasonable and, when it comes to sentencing, he is no longer a first-time offender, he is convicted felon. This means convictions are more likely and punishments more severe.
Second, to those who simply shrugged, this was a just process and it will matter a great deal. No, it doesn’t solve everything, and cults don’t disband overnight. The people who love Trump still love him, and the people who have always despised him still do. But a hundred-million Americans don’t pay that close attention. They look at a handful of data points and their own personal situations and feelings and make a choice. In 2016, low-engagement voters looked at Hillary and Trump and narrowly decided it was “unlikable, shady lady” vs “disruptive TV guy” and went for Trump. This year, for these people, it’s going to be something like, “Old guy/gas prices” vs “Old guy, Criminal”.
Is this a great way to choose the leader of the Free World? Not really, but it’s what we’ve got. The larger point is, that if you truly put yourself into a low-engagement mindset, a criminal conviction does not help. Coupled with the fact that all of this will cost Trump time, money, and a handful of votes in an election that was always going to be decided by… a handful of votes. This verdict may be as far from unimportant as can be, it may change absolutely everything.
